A little bit of rain today and then a nice break for the weekend with more rain on the 25th. At least we’re not getting what is happening in California and the East Coast. As of yesterday, we’ve had 6.87” of rain for the month which puts us at exactly 3” ABOVE average. We will probably stay at that gap through the end of the year with our rainfall for the year still below average.
Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic provide an interesting view for the reason we will have yet another benign weekend of weather. You can clearly see the front that is moving over the area today with the cooler, unstable air behind the front that will move in later today. Off northern California, we have a 1030MB high-pressure system that will develop a weak lobe of high-pressure that will extend into the Pacific NW for most of the weekend. The other feature of interest is the weak low-pressure system just off the Southern California coast with an attached cold front. The reason So Cal got so much rain is in the 500MB chart which shows an upper level, cutoff low-pressure system right over the surface low and since it’s cut off from the jet stream it’s not moving very far or very fast. You can see the jet stream is very zonal, going almost straight across the Pacific before coming ashore near the California-Oregon Border. This flow doesn’t change very much, however it will be enough to move that upper-level low to the east over the weekend.
The surface forecast chart for the 24th (48hr chart) does show a series of low-pressure systems that will be coming across the Pacific with their attached frontal systems that will impact our weather on the 25th and then again later in the week. That weak lobe of high pressure that we will have over us will be easily pushed aside by these systems.
The other chart of interest is the surface forecast chart for the 26th (96hr chart) which shows a very interesting system developing just to the NW of Hawaii. Note that it says Rapidly Intensifying and Developing Hurricane Force Winds. The reason for this is that this low is expected to intensify from 1004MB to 960MB in 24 hours. Now that is truly bombogenesis as it drops 44MB in that time span. With the zonal flow of the jet stream we will want to watch this as it heads our way next week.
For wind this weekend, the usual suspects will bear the brunt of the breeze with the coast and the eastern end of the Straits seeing gale force conditions with post-frontal westerlies. This will ease overnight and by mid-morning, on Saturday the breeze will become a prefrontal south-easterly and build slowly over the weekend with gale conditions by mid-Sunday morning in the Eastern Straits, Admiralty Inlet, Bellingham Bay, and the San Juan Islands. These conditions will hold through the 25th.
For the Central and South Sound, conditions should be much lighter. Regardless, if you’re going to take advantage of empty anchorages, monitor the conditions before you go anywhere.
Seasons Greetings, have a great and safe weekend.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)