What another week it has been for weather in the Pacific NW. This weekend will however be the nicest weekend we’ve had in the month of May. Let’s hope it’s just a practice run for Memorial Day weekend unless you were hoping for breeze. Rainwise we are still about 2” ahead for the month and 3.5” ahead for the year. There does not appear to be much ahead for the upcoming week, just a slight possibility of a drizzle on Wednesday.
After that very active front came through earlier this week we now have high-pressure (1032MB) building over Pacific NW and the NE Pacific ocean roughly centered off the central Oregon coast at 135W. There is also a weak low-pressure system (1008MB) at 40N and 150W that is moving quickly (32.5 mph) in a due north direction. This high is not very strong or round in shape so it can be pushed around however check out the wild oscillation in the Jet Stream on the 500MB charts. It’s not going to have much effect on this high. By 22 May the high will have drifted to the south and weakened to 1029 MB, leaving little pressure gradient over the Salish Sea. This will allow temps to warm into the 60s and we should have a beautiful weekend just not much wind.
So what does Swiftsure look like from a week out? It would have been very interesting if we would have the conditions we had on Wednesday for the start of Swiftsure with 50+ knots of westerly at Race Rocks at 1000hrs. I think a lot of boats may have opted out of those punishing conditions. It appears that this weak high-pressure system will drift to the NW and re-center itself at roughly 34N and 145W with a weak lobe over the Pacific NW. This will mean a very weak pressure gradient over the area. The other problem will be the tides with the big flood of the day at Race Passage starting at 1040 and if you haven’t made it past the Race you will face a flood tide building to 5 knots at 1330 hrs. Just one of the many reasons we still go up to Victoria for this race.
Kurt grew up racing and cruising in the Midwest, and has raced Lasers since the late 1970s. Currently he is a broker at Swiftsure Yachts. He has been Assistant Editor at Sailing Magazine and a short stint as Editor of Northwest Yachting. Through Meadow Point Publishing he handles various marketing duties for smaller local companies. He currently is partners on a C&C 36 which he cruises throughout the Northwest. He’s married to the amazing Abby and is father to Ian and Gabe.