It seems like we’ve had quite a spate of light air races this year however that will change tomorrow as a system comes onshore tomorrow and into Sunday. Saturday at PSSC could see some of the best sailing we’ve had in a long time. Sunday will start with a nice breeze before some post-frontal funkiness sets in about mid-afternoon.
The surface analysis chart and the sat pic for today show the approaching frontal system attached to a relatively weak low-pressure system (1010MB) which will dissipate as it goes through the coastal buffer zone. The other interesting feature to watch is the Pacific High(1033MB) in a relatively normal position if this was the late spring or early summer. Strangely enough, this high will strengthen over the next couple of days to about 1040MB on Sunday and would be in a perfect place if you were starting TransPac or Pacific Cup. This will however be only temporary as a stronger frontal system will approach the coast on the 13th and the 14th and it is attached to one of the stronger low-pressure systems we’ve seen this fall (976MB).
October 8 Surface Analysis 
October 9 Surface Forecast 
October 10 500 MB 
October 10 Surface Forecast 
October 11 Surface Forecast 
October 12 500 MB 
October 12 Surface Forecast
One of the great things about tomorrow will be the practice starts that CYC will offer before the main event which gets rolling at 1100hrs. For the practice starts it looks like we’ll have 10-15 knots of southerly which will slowly build over the day. The practice starts will allow you to see if the topographically forced local conditions will be in play. Much of this will depend on where they set the start line. Generally speaking, you’ll hold starboard off the line and head towards Shilshole to see if there’s a southeasterly coming out of the Ship Canal that you can take advantage of getting up to the weather mark and if so then you’ll do a bear away set and hold the starboard gybe until you get lifted and can gybe towards the leeward mark.
As the day goes on, the breeze will build slightly through the afternoon but stay out of the south with few major shifts. Sunday will be very different as the breeze will start out the SE at about 10-knots since this will be a post-frontal situation with a strong onshore flow coming down the Straits and meeting the southwesterly flow coming through the Chehalis Gap and up the Sound, creating a convergent zone from Alki to Pt No Pt. Eventually, this will mean the wind coming down the Straits will gradually fill down the Sound probably around 1300-1500 hrs. This probably won’t last as the onshore gradient will weaken after about 1600 hours leaving light and variable conditions over the race area.
Tides will not be an issue this weekend as the current will be generally very weak and somewhat variable.
Tidal Current at West Point
Saturday
0848 Max Ebb .33-knots
1036 Slack
1142 Max Flood .13-knots
1306 Slack
1636 Max Flood .78-knots
Sunday
0818 Slack
0948 Max Ebb .3-knots
1130 Slack
1400 Slack
1718 Max Flood .65-knots.
Have a great weekend!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)