I almost could have simply done a cut and paste from last weekend’s forecast but that wouldn’t have been any fun. We once again have high pressure offshore and low-pressure inland. What was interesting was the mid-week transition where we had a real mix of conditions with all forms of precipitation and enough vertical instability for lightning and thunder. Things have settled back down and this will bring us a fairly nice weekend while we get ready for Swiftsure….well, maybe next year.
May 21 500 MB 
May 21 Surface Analysis 
May 22 Surface Forecast 
May 23 500 MB 
May 23 Surface Forecast 
May 24 Surface Forecast 
May 27 500 MB 
May 25 Surface Forecast
We still have a weak high-pressure system (1031MB) offshore and it is not setting up in what we would consider the “normal” position for the summer Pacific High, it is too far south, and too far to the east. The other feature is the relative weakness of this high when combined with the continuing flow of low-pressure systems across the north Pacific is forcing the jet stream into a meridional flow with the jet stream now coming ashore to the south of us which is keeping temps on the cooler side of normal. This is probably a good thing since we are now behind on rainfall for the month and the year. This will change and as we transition from La Niña to a more neutral situation we can expect a warmer and dryer summer which will almost certainly bring an elevated threat of wildfires and more smoke to the Salish Sea.
As we go through the weekend, the pressure gradient will ease over the Northwest however the onshore flow in the Straits of JdF will bring a cranking westerly with gale warnings for the central and eastern Straits. The flow will continue down Admiralty Inlet on Saturday and then ease overnight. As the flow along the coast transitions from NNW to WNW, this will bring a light southerly into the Sound for Sunday. So if you’re cruising this weekend you can run south on Saturday and then run home on Sunday. Not bad!
Another weak frontal system will pass over the area Tuesday and Wednesday bringing the possibility of some drizzle.
As always, enjoy the weekend and apply the sunblock early and often.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)