It certainly wouldn’t have been the first time this race was sailed in the snow however this is the right call. Not because of snow but because this would have been the classic Toliva Shoal sucker punch; nice NE breeze (10-15 knots) for the start however by noon to 1300 hrs it would steadily drop to zero gusting to ½. As usual, another great call by the Race Committee.
Today’s surface analysis chart shows the reasons why all this is happening. The first feature of note is the two high-pressure systems to the NE of us in BC. Especially the one whose central pressure is 1045MB and when we have 1017Mb here that’s a 25Mb difference so it’s no wonder we have areas of strong E-ENE breeze. Especially near the outflow from the Fraser River Vally and the gaps in the Cascades. For instance, 36 knots of E in Greenwater.
February 12 500 MB 
February 12 Surface Analysis 
February 13 Surface Forecast 
February 14 500 MB 
February 14 Surface Forecast 
February 15 Surface Forecast 
February 16 Surface Forecast 
February 16 500 MB
The offshore picture is also very interesting with a weak low-pressure system (990MB) off the north end of Vancouver Island with an attached frontal system. Of particular note is the point at which the cold front turns into a stationary occluded front at about 35N 150W. This is where a new low is forming and you’ll notice the start of a very long red arrow. That red arrow is pointed right at us here on the Salish Sea and its length indicates that this low will travel about 1680 miles in 24 hours, which means it’s moving at 70 knots, WOW! This fast-moving system with its attached frontal system will come ashore Saturday morning.
As always, it’s interesting to look at the extended surface forecast charts especially the 96HR one from today. Note the 952MB low in the far western Pacific, which is one very intense low-pressure system and it will be one to watch as it works its way towards North America. You now have to check out the 500MB charts to see how these systems will keep coming at us., which they will.
The good news is that with the way the polar vortex is oscillating, this should be the last major intrusion of cold polar air this season. I’m sure the central US and East Coast are hoping for this. Below freezing and closer to 0°F to the Texas Gulf Coast? There are going to be some very busy plumbers dealing with frozen pipes and more icy roadways. YUK.
Have a great weekend.
Ed. Note: Happy Valentine’s Day! For sailors, long underwear can be just as romantic as flowers. I say bravely.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)