It’s Round the County so it really doesn’t matter what the weather will be doing, it will still be a great time. We have had an incredibly dry November so far which, for what is traditionally the wettest month of the year, just a little strange. Plus it’s going to be almost 60-degrees F today. The surface charts give us a pretty clear picture of what is going on. We still have a weak ridge of high-pressure guarding the Pacific Northwest and that combined with the jet stream is directing our traditional fall soakers well north of us and into SE Alaska. This is not going to change until the middle of next week.
Today’s surface analysis shows the remnants of a weak front moving across southern BC today and that has brought a southerly flow over the area which will persist into tomorrow. Sunday will have a northerly flow develop and by late Sunday this will become an offshore flow as high-pressure rebuilds over the area. The 96-hour surface forecast chart the strongest low-pressure system(956MB) we’ve seen this fall lurking in the mid-Pacific. We’ll see if this will be strong enough to break up our ridge of high-pressure.
Nov 8 500MB 
Nov 8 Surface Analysis 
Nov 9 Surface Forecast 
Nov 10 500MB 
Nov 10 Surface Forecast 
Nov 11 Surface Forecast 
Nov 12 Surface Forecast
For RTC on Saturday, this will mean wind (8-12 knots from the SE) for the start however as the gradient eases the wind will drop. This problem is compounded by the geography of Orcas Island and Mt Constitution which as the breeze eases will create a wind shadow extending from Orcas across Boundary Pass. The boats with TALL rigs should prevail. The other problem will be that after about 1030 the tide will be flooding in Boundary Pass and while it’s not a big flood, it will still be difficult to fight.
Currents in Rosario Strait.
Saturday
0706 Max Ebb 1.08 knts
1000 Slack
1300 Max Flood 1.23 knts
1548 Slack
1948 Max Ebb 2.41 knts
Sunday
0742 Max Ebb 1.11 knts
1042 Slack
1336 Max Flood 1.14 knts
1606 Slack
2012 Max Ebb 2.77 knts
Current in Haro Strait
Sunday
0654 Max Ebb .83 knts
0930 Slack
1306 Max Flood 1.4 knts
1618 Slack
For Sunday as a weak northerly flow comes in, the problem will be reversed as the wind shadow will go south from Mt. Constitution and over the finish area.
November 8 
1200 Hr. Nov 9 
MM5 1200 Nov 9
On Saturday I have Crossfire around the course in about 5.75 hours finishing between 1430 and 1500 hours.
Have a great time and leave your AIS on so I can at least armchair quarterback from the computer.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)