Today’s weather picture presents a complex pattern with a little bit for everyone. The current Surface Analysis has a series of three weak low-pressure systems strung across the Pacific Northwest from east of the Cascades to off of the Strait of JdF to off of the north end of Vancouver Island. The attached frontal system off of the center low will cross over the coast this afternoon and is already bringing rain to the south Sound. By tomorrow morning all that will be left of these systems is a weak low-pressure system (1013mb) that will be drifting off the central Vancouver Island coast. This system will not move very much over the next 24-48 hours.
5 June Surf Analysis 
6 June Surf Forecast 
6 June 1200 EC HR 
6 June 1500 EC HR 
6 June 1800 EC HR 
6 June 2100 EC HR 
7 June 0000 EC HR 
7 June Surf Forecast 2
For R2AK this will mean a bit of a light air start in a south to southeasterly breeze. Great for the rowers and paddlers. By mid-afternoon, onshore flow will develop bringing a westerly down the Strait of JdF. This westerly will become southwesterly through the San Juan and Gulf Islands of 10-15 knots, great for the sailors. Then it will be time for the first big decision: Which way to get north to Nanaimo, go inside and up Trincomali Channel exiting at Porlier Pass or outside through Boundary Pass and into the Strait of Georgia, an additional 10 miles? And then there’s the current at Porlier Pass. Racers will have the big flood of the day with them until about 2030hrs, Thursday night. Rowers and paddlers will simply go the shortest possible course.
I ran both routes for the Melges 32 and if they go up the inside (about 10 miles shorter) I have them making Porlier at 2000 hours and arriving at Entrance Island at midnight. If they went outside on the longer course they would sail an additional seven miles on top of the 10-mile longer course and they would arrive at Entrance Island at almost exactly the same time.
This basically agrees with two of the models which will have more wind in the Strait of Georgia but to stay in the wind you’ll have to sail up the east side by Tsawwassen and the Roberts Bank. If you do go up the inside it will be lighter but a much shorter distance. Do ya feel lucky? Well, do ya?
After Entrance, the southerly-southwesterly breeze will drop as the onshore flow works its way down the Strait of Georgia creating a zone of light air. After which the breeze will build to about 8-12 from the northwest and that will last until about mid-morning on Saturday when it will go light once again as racers approach Campbell River and the big tidal gate at Seymour Narrows. As in the past, if one boat can make it through and close the door on the fleet behind, that can be the entire race.
Good luck, have a great race and be safe. I’ll continue to update the weather as long as my boss will let me.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)