Today’s surface analysis shows a very interesting and complex series of features. The short story is that except for the coast for today and into tomorrow, the weather will be unseasonably pleasant for this time of the year. A perfect time to take the boat out and go to any number of secluded and relatively unoccupied anchorages. It will still be on the cool side but what else would you expect?
The overall pattern shows that the Pacific Northwest is still somewhat protected by a very nice ridge of high-pressure (1028mb) on the other side of the Cascades. The other feature is the 500mb chart which has the jet stream still coming almost straight across the Pacific until it wraps around an upper level low off the Southern California coast and is directed due north on the other side of the Sierra Nevada and Cascade Ranges. This the reason why we will have no storms headed our way at least until mid next week. Check today’s sat pic and then compare tomorrow to see where that well-defined frontal system is headed.
Click any image to enlarge.
500MB Forecast January 11 
Surface analysis January 11 
Surface forecast January 12 
500MB Forecast January 13 
Surface Forcast January 13 
500MB January 15
It does get more interesting on the 48-hour surface forecast chart where we find the deepest low so far this winter (956mb) just off the Aleutian Islands. It is still being directed almost due north while the very weakened tail of the attached frontal system may drag over the Pacific NW later in the week. It will almost certainly be significantly degraded as it encounters our coastal buffer zone. It is also interesting to note that our protective ridge of high-pressure will strengthen slightly. This will bring a weak offshore flow over the area giving us some patchy morning fog In some of the usual areas with easterly flow through the passes but generally clear conditions. The weak low-pressure system(994mb) off the California coast will drift slowly to the southeast and may bring more rain into Southern California. By later in the week this low catch the northern bound drift of the jet stream and then dissipate off of Northern California. Just behind this low is another rapidly intensifying low- pressure system (998mb) which will probably suffer the same fate.
As we transition to this offshore flow it was interesting to note this morning the wind pattern in the eastern end of the Strait of Juan de Fuca. 28-knots of southeasterly at Smith Island with 20-knots of northerly at Race Rocks. Just a friendly reminder to always check the conditions on your VHF before you head out and log the pressure readings from around the Pacific NW so you can see if something else may be coming in.
Enjoy the weekend and get ready for the Big Seattle Boat Show starting on Jan 25th, it is going to be a great one.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)