Bruce’s Brief for January 4-6 and the TTPYC Duwamish Head Race

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Racing 0 Comment
Click to enlarge satellite image.

As they will be saying on the docks before Three Tree Point’s Duwamish Head Race at Des Moines tomorrow morning, “You should have been here yesterday.” Plenty of breeze this morning, however, the front has passed, the post-frontal onshore flow has set in and as the gradient eases this afternoon, the breeze will begin to drop. By tomorrow morning we should start to see a weak offshore flow develop which will bring light air to the central Sound. This will bring a mix-master of different winds as we wait for the next front to come onshore Sunday. The problem will once again be that as these fronts hit the coastal buffer zone, they can slow which may allow the onshore flow to stay longer. Maybe even leaving us with a weak northerly in the morning.

Luckily the tides won’t be much of a factor.

Tidal Current at Alki:

  • 0942   Max Ebb      .3 knts
  • 1230   Slack
  • 1354   Max Flood    .16 knts
  • 1606   Slack
  • 2112   Max Ebb      .64 knts

Tactics for this race will be tough so always go back to basics. Know the rhumbline, watch COG and SOG, don’t get too far off the rhumbline and watch the smart guys in the fleet. There will be plenty holes to fall into, so watch what is happening around you so be aggressive trimming and shifting gears. When it gets really light, don’t let too much weight accumulate in the cockpit and don’t hesitate to put the dogs in the house. Just keep them happy, well-informed, well-fed and well-hydrated….

  • January 4 Surface Analysis
  • January 5 500MB
  • January 5 Surface Forecast 2019
  • January 6 Surface Forecast
  • January 7 500MB
  • January 7 Surface Forecast
  • January 8 Surface Forecast

The other thing to remember is to not be lulled into complacency by the light air. Sometime Saturday evening this front will come onshore and bring plenty of breeze with it. By late Saturday night and into early Sunday we could have 35-40 knots of southerly. This will ease to 25 knots by early Sunday morning

The surface charts for this weekend show a very interesting pattern, especially the one for tomorrow morning which shows a compact low-pressure system (982MB)off the California coast headed almost due north along the coast. Plenty of tightly wound isobars which usually means plenty of wind. Again, that all depends on the timing of the arrival and how much the coastal buffer zone will degrade the front.

Click to enlarge wind speed vs. pressure at West Point

As has been the case this winner, the 72 and 96-hour charts are very interesting showing the formation of yet another deep low (974MB) off the coast with that note Developing Hurricane Force. Right now it is headed right at us and could be a factor late next week.

Notice also the 72-hour 500MB chart which shows a flattening out of the jet stream which will continue to bring warm and wet conditions to the Pacific Northwest. Those of you watching Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly charts will also recognize that these two features are indicative of an El Niño so don’t be surprised if the NWS declares one this week. Oh wait a minute, the NWS is closed. Oh well, weather just isn’t that important to some folks. Kurt is kicking me under the table and telling me to get back to the weather.

Have a great weekend, and be safe out there.

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