It’s finally starting to look a lot more like Seattle today as the streets are wet and the lawns are screaming thank you to the rain. You can clearly see why in today’s surface analysis chart which shows an occluded front extending from a 1004MB Low-Pressure system that is going to just barely hit us today as it heads in a southeasterly direction towards Oregon. After it passes, the high-pressure system you see over eastern Washington and southern BC will interact with this passing low-pressure to bring a northerly flow over the Salish Sea tonight and into tomorrow morning. As the offshore high-pressure rebuilds, this will cause an onshore flow to bring a westerly down the Straits of JdF tomorrow afternoon. This will also cause the northerly gradient to weaken over the area starting by early to mid-afternoon. As you can see from the radar shot, the end of the rain is now showing up off the coast.
Click any image to enlarge.
How does this translate to the Foulweather Bluff Race? The models are not in agreement as to when the northerly breeze will start ease. The GFS model has 5 knots of northerly in the starting area and building slightly as you head west and then easing to 4 knots at around 1400 hours. The MM5 model has 5 knots in the starting area, then building to 10 knots of northerly by Scatchet Head, building to 12-15 knots of NW as you head across the Sound. This will ease to about 10 knots by 1400 hours across the Sound becoming 5-8 in the start finish area. By 1700 hours it will ease to 5-10 knots of northwesterly all across the Sound except less than 5 in the start-finish area. Plus we may have some fog in the morning which will really make life interesting.
Running the numbers for a J-30 if it were to go on the Long Course it would take them about 8.5 hours to finish. If they were sent on Course 2 it would take them about 5 hours.
Running the numbers for Crossfire, if they were sent on the Long Course it would take them about 3.75 hours. If they went on Course 2 it would take them about 2.33 hours.
The other factor will be the tides at Foulweather Bluff:
0930 Slack
1212 Max Flood 1.3 knots
1606 Slack
2012 Max Ebb .47 knots
Your basic tactics are going to be to get a clear start and hold starboard off the line to get away from the Edmonds shore and tack when you are slightly overstood on the Scatchet Head because the tidal velocity increases as you get closer to the mark and the wind can ease under that bluff. From there whether you are going Long Course or Course 2 you just sail the course to the next mark and anticipate the set as you approach the FWB mark. You’ll probably do a gybe set at that mark so talk that through before you get there and then it will be trim, trim, trim, all the way to finish anticipating that the breeze will ease as you approach the Edmonds shore which will mean moving people out of the cockpit and up to the shrouds to keep the stern out of the water.
If you are going on Course 2 then you may not be able to set at the first mark just be ready as you get to Pt No Pt because you will be lifted as you approach Pilot Point and then be ready to gybe at the Pilot Pt mark.
Sunday it will be generally light over the Sound as we await the approach of another frontal system late Sunday afternoon which will bring more rain to the area. Note also that the great folks at the NWS have now added a 72 Hour forecast chart. Finally!
Have a great weekend, have a great race and we’ll see you up there.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Thanks once again for your custom forecast for FWB. They were paying attention at the Skipper’s meeting, including, most importantly, the RC, who chose not to send us to Foulweather Bluff in the dying northerly.
It was a tough race, but a beautiful day. I still don’t understand why there was an easterly just south of Whidbey. I’ve seen this before…
Hi David. I’ll see if I can prod the prognosticator. I don’t understand it either.