Once again, it looks like the Wind Gods (or Goddesses) are going to smile on the Sloop for their totally sold out Race to the Straits. This race is so much fun that even Kurt Hoehne is coming out of his retirement from Big Boat PHRF sailing to go this weekend! Good luck Kurt! (Ed. note, my partner Joe is letting me sail Saturday – he’s sailing Sunday with Becky and ace tactician 5 yo Charlotte)
While today may have started out a little gloomy, by this afternoon it’s looking reasonably nice. More importantly, it’s looking like clearing skies for tomorrow and Sunday with even some nice wind for tomorrow. The weather picture is complicated as you can see by the charts.
Today’s surface analysis shows a weak high-pressure system with one lobe centered on top of us, with the other center off the central coast of California. This system is sandwiched between two very weak low-pressure systems. This picture will continue to evolve with the northern lobe of the high strengthening and moving to the north while the southern lobe is weakened by another approaching frontal system. This means our weather won’t be very dramatic but it will be interesting as we go back and forth between weak onshore and weak offshore flows. This will mean 8-10 knots of northerly over the central Sound in the morning building to 10-12 knots in the afternoon. After you get around the corner at Point No Point the wind will gradually transition to the NW and drop back to the 8-10 knot range. The key will be to at least get in striking range of the finish before about 1600 hours when the flood will start to build.
Tidal Currents at Bush Point.
0918 Slack
1224 2.2 knot ebb
1524 Slack
1818 2.33 knot flood
2342 Slack
Sunday at Bush Point.
0718 1.26 knot flood
1006 Slack
1312 1.93 knot ebb
1612 Slack
1906 2.14 knot flood
While the early starters on Saturday will face the end of a weak flood, there should be enough wind to get you well up the Sound and in position to take the ebb to Port Townsend. There will be slightly more breeze on the West side of the Sound but you’re going to want to carefully watch your COG and SOG as the tide goes into transition. Plus in the upwind, flat water, the fleet will start to compress near the ½ way point at Double Bluff. Remember also that the breeze will drop slightly under Double Bluff as the ebb increases in velocity in the shallow water near the buoy so set up for your rounding early. That buoy is big and ugly and will leave a nasty mark if you hit it, as others have found out. After rounding, stay in the strongest part of the ebb off of the Whidbey shore but plan your tack across to Marrowstone so you’ll hit about mid-island. This way you can get the header as the wind goes from NNW to WNW along that shore. The ebb also lasts longer along that shore and if you’re in the start of the flood tide coming up to Marrowstone Point, there is a great back-eddy up that beach. Go around the point on port tack and then tack to starboard when you can safely clear the shallows and head towards Port Townsend.
Click any image to enlarge:
Sunday will be somewhat more challenging as there will be wind for the start which will get you back around Marrowstone and headed to the 1/2way mark at Double Bluff. It is that zone from Marrowstone to Point No Point where the breeze will drop as it transitions from the morning NNE to the afternoon NNW, the breeze will probably be closer to 5 than to 10. After Double Bluff, the tide will be ebbing so staying in the breeze out of Useless Bay will probably be better than trying to work across to the Pt No Pt shore where the ebb is stronger. The good news is that you’ll have plenty of marker boats around you and there are some very smart people sailing this race so keep track of where those guys are going. As you get closer to the slack at 1600 hours remember that the flood starts first down the west shore at Foulweather Bluff to Point No Point and then south along that shore. Remember also that there’s a reason why they call it Skunk Bay, it can get very light in there as the northerly is trying to build. From No Point south to the finish it will probably pay to stay to the west before you gybe across to the finish at Shilshole.
As always, use your sunblock and have a great time!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)