No question, this will be a prolonged rain and wind event. The good news is that the projected track will keep it out of the interior of Western Washington and keep it off the coast. That doesn’t however diminish the potential effects that we may see in the Salish Sea. It will really depend on where you are so I’ll try to break it down as much as I can.
The first event will begin to show up late tonight and into tomorrow morning with winds in the central Sound 25-30 knots ESE and the south coast of Washington 30-40 knots of ESE. By 0200 look for 30-40 knots of southerly from Alki, over Elliott Bay and into the north Sound. By 0300 The entire coast will experience 25-30 with gusts to 40, the same for the central Sound north to Bellingham Bay and this will last until late afternoon and into the early evening on Friday.
The second and stronger event will start early Saturday morning and will be marked by a rapidly dropping barometer. Be sure to set it because this will probably be the lowest we’ll see this year. The other indication that this will be a fairly strong system is the that you will see that the frontal wind, instead of being southeasterly will be a pronounced due easterly. When this occurs, if you’re on the water, it’s time to seek shelter ASAP. The good news is that with high tide at around 0400 and 1645 this will drive the water off the coast and reduce the amount of storm surge. We’ll see the breeze start to build by late morning and remain out of the east and east-southeasterly direction.
By noon on Saturday the south coast of Washington will see ESE 45+ knots, the Straits from Race Rocks to the west 30-40 knots of easterly and the Central Sound 20-30 knots from the east-southeast. By mid afternoon from Newport, OR to Westport you will see a steady 50 knots with gusts to 60 of SSE, slightly less north of Westport. In the Straits from Race Rocks to Neah Bay there will be 35-45 knots of easterly with higher gusts. In the central Sound 15-25 knots of ESE.
Into the late afternoon and early evening the Coast will see 35-45 knots, the entire Straits will have 30-40 from the ESE. The central Sound 30-35 from ESE. By sometime between 1800 and 2000 hrs the front will have pased which will bring the wind around to the west-southwest on coast and from the Columbia River to Westport expect 45-50 knots with higher gust. From Westport to Neah bay 35-45 with higher gusts. In the Salish Sea From Anderson Island to Port Townsend SSE 35-45 knots. By mid evening from Olympia to the Strait of Georgia look for 35-45 from the south, in the Straits from Pt. Townsend to RR ESE 35-40.
Around midnight on Saturday the post frontal effect of west-southwesterly breeze will in place over the entire area. In the Straits from Race Rocks to Whidbey Island 45-50 knots of WSW, NB to RR WSW 30-40. In the Salish Sea from Olympia to Pt Townsend SSW 25-35.
Early Sunday morning it will start to ease to SW 20-30 along the coast, 25-30 from Olympia to Anacortes and from Anacortes north to the Strait of Georgia 25-40 of SSW.
There’s still time to check the boat and add those extra mooring lines and fenders.
I’m headed down to Elliott Bay Marina and Shilshole this afternoon to scope things out and I’ll have another update for you tomorrow around noon. A huge thank you to Kurt Hoehne for his help on all of this.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Nice write-up! Thanks for doing that in-depth report.
Bruce and I thank you for your kind words! Stay tuned for more and share with your friends.