Our unsettled spring weather continues and the lack of agreement among the weather models is a good indication of just how unsettled things are in the weather sphere. Today’s sat pic gives us a great overview of what is coming for today into tomorrow and that mostly means rain. The wind side of this equation is more complicated because as this front comes onshore it will weaken and dissipate. There will be some post frontal westerly flow down the Strait of JdF however that won’t last past late afternoon or early evening tomorrow as another front will approach the coast on Sunday.
What we are fairly confident about is the tidal flow in Admiralty Inlet:
Saturday
0900 Slack
1200 Max Flood 2.17 knts
1524 Slack
1806 Max Ebb 1.64 knts
Sunday
0648 Max Ebb 2.69 knts
0942 Slack
1248 Max Flood 2.65 knts
1636 Slack
1906 Max Ebb 1.68 knts
For wind tomorrow, one model has the early starters setting kites. Three other models have everyone enjoying a light air beat at least to Marrowstone. Then there’s light air beating in the rain and a flood tide trying to get past Double Bluff. By about 1400 tomorrow a stronger westerly flow will come down the Straits and into Admiralty Inlet. This could bring 12-15 knots of wind to Port Townsend and maybe about halfway down Marrowstone. Near 1600 hrs as a stronger southerly flow comes north in the Central Sound, a convergent zone will develop in the North Sound and extend north to Double Bluff. By 1700 hrs expect a light and variable zone from Pt No Pt(PNP) to mid-Marrowstone. By 1800 hrs the southerly flow will extend from PNP to mid-Marrowstone.
For Sunday it looks like a light air beat in a southerly at least to PNP. From PNP south to the finish expect a southerly of 15-20 knots. Even more interesting will be the beating in a wind against tide situation, especially in the north Sound. We always hope for a two-way run on this race and most of the time we get a least one day of running. This year, unfortunately, it looks like a two-way beat, bummer. Oh well, at least the party in Pt Townsend will be great and then there’s always next year.
Have a great race, and be safe.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)