With CYC’s Scatchet Head course being up to the race committee, this is bound to be interesting. From two out of the three models, there will be more consistent wind on a North Course, so that is the one we’ll use.
Today’s surface analysis and sat pic give a nice representation of what’s coming towards us for tomorrow. A well-defined cold front, with cool, unstable, air behind the front and plenty of cold rain. After the front passes, which should be near dawn, onshore flow will develop down the Strait of JdF with the possibility of SCA or gale warnings in the eastern Strait. As the flow offshore changes from NW to W flow will develop through the Chehalis Gap late in the afternoon on Saturday. This is what will make things interesting on the North Course, as the pressure gradient will ease and conditions will go light in the central Sound.
It will be the speed of the front that will be interesting to watch since that will determine how much wind we have after about mid-afternoon. Before that, the North Sound will have more consistently more N-NE breeze(12-20 knots) while the South Sound, (south of Alki) will have a light(4-8 knots), of drainage easterly.
Presuming a north course, you’ll start in a NNE-NE breeze of 10-12 knots on starboard and if you don’t have a lane of clear air you’ll need to take a short clearing tack and then get back on to starboard as that will be the favored tack up the Sound until about the line from Edmonds to Kingston. You’ll be sailing in an ebb tide which will be consistently stronger to the west of the rhumb line. As you get closer to the north part of the course, the breeze should build to 15-18 knots and back to the N-NNW. At which point you’ll tack and be aimed roughly at Scatchet Head. Even if you’re low of the mark the breeze should continue to back, lifting you to the mark. The ebb will also be setting you to the mark which is fine just watch your set as you get closer to the mark because the breeze will tend to ease the closer you get to the mark while the ebb will build slightly.
For the run back to the finish it will pretty much be a reverse of the course you sailed up to the mark with more breeze from N-NW until you get back to near Kingston where you’ll be lifted so you can gybe to port and be aimed at the finish. The key will be to finish before about mid-afternoon when the breeze will start to clock back to the east and begin to ease.
Tidal Currents
Scatchet Head
1012 Max Ebb 1.3 knots
1324 Slack
1620 Max Flood 1.0 knot
Edmonds
1018 Max Ebb .44 knots
1300 Slack
1612 Max Flood .66 knots
So what does the crystal ball show for tomorrow? Zvi first around and finishing at 1315 hrs, Glory next at 1323hrs, Jam in at 1414hrs. the J-111’s finishing at 1435, the Sierra 26 in at 1455, the C&C 115 in at 1507, the J-109’s at 1509, the J-35’s in at 1517, and the J-105’s in around 1522.
We are still ahead of rain for the year even compared with last year and with another front coming in late Sunday or early Monday. This will add a little more snow to the mountains which is good. The other good news is that by the end of next week the jet stream will become meridional and move more to the north which will bring in some slightly warmer temperatures.
Have a great race, stay warm, stay dry, and stay safe.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)