Ed. Note: Bruce is not doing his live show in Victoria this year, and we’re not sure where this post will be shared by the Swiftsure powers to be. So, please spread the word that this post is up. Thanks, and sail safe.
Wx for RVYC Driftsure, Oops, I mean Swiftsure.
This will be a great weekend for powerboaters and tough one for sailors. Today’s surface analysis clearly illustrates the problem sailors will have with a moderate high-pressure system (1034mb) off the coast and a very weak low-pressure system (1006mb) just east of the Cascades and two weak low-pressure troughs bracketing the race area. By Saturday morning the inland low will weaken to 1007mb and drift slowly to the northwest. So while we may have some residual onshore flow coming down the Straits in the morning that will weaken as an offshore flow comes down from that low. This will bring a light north-northeasterly flow to the race course. By Sunday the pressure gradient will continue to ease even further until late Sunday afternoon when a weak onshore breeze will come down the Straits. By Monday we could see a fairly strong onshore flow in the Straits.
May 24 500MB 
May 24 Surface Analysis 
May 25 Surface Forecast 
May 26 500MB 
May 26 Surface Forecast 
May 27 Surface Forecast 
May 28 Surface Forecast
With this morning’s models I have Crossfire around the long course in 41 hours, Tahlequah around the Cape Flattery course in 46 hours and Glory around the Hein Bank course in 41 hours as well.
Tidal Currents in Race Passage
0716 .4 knots Min Ebb
1227 3.9 knots Max Ebb
1621 Slack
1940 4.1 knots Max Flood
2312 Slack
Sunday
0319 3.9 knots Max Ebb
0850 .2 knots Min Ebb
1335 3.2 knots Max Ebb
1718 Slack
2036 3.7 knots Max Flood
Where to go? Luckily we’ll have plenty of tide to at least get us past Race Passage. After that, what wind there is will probably be in the middle of the Straits. So just keep the boat aimed at the mark and get as many of the crew as possible down below and getting some sleep because night fighting will win this race.
I wish I had better news for you, just be safe and have fun.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)