The good news? Break out the sunblock and put away the woolies! The bad news? Let’s hope the RC sets an alternative course as it is going to be light. All the models are somewhat in agreement on that with some even showing up to six knots of wind from the due north at the start. Most, however, show less than five knots. I currently have Crossfire around the course in just over six hours, the J-35 around in just over nine hours. Remember that in four knots of wind Crossfire can sail at six knots and the rest of us are not nearly that fast. The other problem will be that the boats with tallest masts will greatly benefit as there will be more wind above 45-50 feet off the water.
The surface analysis for today shows yesterdays front over eastern Washington with another front poised menacingly off the coast. The problem is that front is moving almost due north and is not headed towards us. This will cause the onshore flow to ease through midday. By this afternoon, high pressure(1010MB to the north and 1017MB off the coast) will join forces and move to the east which will spread the gradient and drop the breeze. High pressure will move east of the Cascades over the weekend giving increasing offshore flow, beautiful weather and the highest temperatures so far this year. Don’t get too worried that this is the start of our summer heat wave, a cold front will move into the coastal waters on Tuesday bringing us cooler temps, mountain snow, and valley rain. Even though it’s about a month early I think we’ve had our last freezing temp the Seattle area. I base this on the fact that while we are still north of the jet stream, it is moving inexorably northward as the days get longer and the air in the northern hemisphere warms. The air flowing into the NW is also coming from the SW and is no longer coming out of the Canadian interior.
Tides at West Point
0718 Flood .4 knots
1054 Slack
1236 Ebb .21 knots
1512 Slack
2036 Flood .78 knots
Tidal Current Foulweather Bluff
1048 Slack
1448 Ebb 1.78 knots
1906 Slack
Tides won’t be much of an issue unless you really can get up to Scatchet Head by noon as at that time there will still be about a knot of tide running to the west at the buoy. In this weather pattern, the northerly wind will lighten significantly and the velocity of the current will increase as you approach the mark. Plan accordingly.
The worst part of this is that there may be enough wind to start and get you up to at Kingston. After that, the breeze will continue to ease off and die in the center of the Sound. Classic Puget Sound sucker punch. Then as it dies off, watch for the Swihart effect to kick in. This is where that in the absence of a pressure gradient over the Salish Sea, the flood tide will bring a northerly down the Sound. Watch for more northerly in the very late afternoon and becoming around 10 knots by early evening. Well after dark and long after scurvy has started to set in on the crew.
Haven’t been much help on where to go in this race because of the lack of wind. There are still some general principles. With ebb tide and light air, get to the west side of the Sound. What breeze there is will be there. On the trip home, the northerly will build on the west side first and the flood will start down the west shore first.
Good Luck, have fun!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)