Almost an inch of rain yesterday (at the airport) and as of today, we are 3.5” above normal and .75 inches ahead of last year which was abnormally moist. Just as long as we don’t get too much heat too fast, it’s fine. Plus the freezing level is going to be coming down significantly late Sunday and into Monday which will help preserve the snowpack. Don’t be surprised to see some snowflakes mixed with the rain.
Today’s surface analysis chart shows the remains of a weak low-pressure system right on top of the Pacific NW hence the cloud cover. There is also a respectable high offshore (1033Mb) which isn’t going to move very far and will help weaken the next front that is due to arrive late Sunday. When you compare the surface chart with the 500MB chart you’ll also see that this high extends well aloft. This is keeping the jet stream to the north before it dives to the south and comes ashore at the US/Mex Border and heads due east. This is the same formula that has resulted in the wild weather in the SE USA over the last 10 days.
March 26 500 MB
March 26 Surface Analysis
March 27 Surface Forecast
March 28 500 MB
March 28 Surface Forecast
March 29 Surface Forecast
March 30 500 MB
March 30 Surface Forecast
Today’s satellite pic, while showing some clearing in the Straits of JdF, still has plenty of cloud cover over the rest of the area. This will continue through tomorrow, just don’t be fooled, be sure to put on plenty of sunblock before you leave the house.
While we have just about a perfect wind for the TTP Race today, the surface forecast chart shows that the pressure gradient will ease over the area tomorrow keeping the breeze in the 5-10-knot range for the start with less wind to the south and the breeze over the racecourse gradually easing over the day. Luckily for us, the Race Committee isn’t afraid to set an alternative course to take advantage of what wind is present. Might as well make it a clean sweep for the Center Sound Series.
Luckily for us, the tides won’t be an issue.
Tidal Current at West Point
0812 Slack
1336 Max Flood .74 knts
1630 Slack
1806 Max Ebb .43 knts
The current NAM model has the TP-52’s around the course in about 6.25 hours, the J-111’s around in 7 hours, and the J-35’s and J-109’s around in 8.5 hours.
By Sunday, another system will make its presence felt over the area as it brings rain and wind to the Salish Sea. It will have the effect of weakening the high currently off of our coast and moving it slightly to the south. What’s very interesting is the 1042MB high behind this front and the 974Mb low off to the NW of this high. Not a trivial low-pressure system. This will be fun to watch as we approach the end of the month.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
This photo by Arden Rathkopf pretty much tells the Three Tree tale. Arden is the 13-year-old son of proud father and CYC PRO Charley Rathkopf. Proud mom of course is Schelleen Rathkopf, owner of Whidbey Island Race Week.
The Center Sound Series was due a drifter, and the Three Tree Point race delivered. After a long delay, enough zephyrs came from the south to start the fleet of Saturday’s racers on a 6.something mile course.
A slow motion race ensued as the fleet did the usual tuck under the West Point beach and made its painful way around West Point, then off to Duwamish Head. It certainly wasn’t the rousing conditions most were hoping for to wrap up the series. Results here,.
Sonic Boom Hang
Sonic looking great at the start.
How to heel a TP 52
Most notable perhaps was Sonic‘s relatively slow motion grounding at West Point. After positively nailing the start and leading the IRC class to the beach, skipper Marek Omilian and the team took the port tack lift while clearing the lighthouse, taking Glory up with them in the process. “We got lulled into complacency by seeing all the boats around us safely clearing the bar. However, none of those boats draw 10.5’,” skipper Omelian reports. Glory headed down, taking Sonic‘s transom, just in time as Sonic hit bottom. Sonic was stuck as the fleet made its south way ever so slowly. Despite efforts including the crew perched on the end of the boom and trying to hoist a spinnaker, Sonic was stuck.
Stuck, that is, until photographer Jan Anderson and her “boat boy” Skip helped pull them off. This is yet another reminder of how Janpix helps out the racing scene around here (and how important it is to support her photography). Three Tree pix here. Apparently we need them out there for more than photographs.
Mark Omelian’s Sonic is not just a racer, it’s a charity fundraiser. Note the banner they displayed pre-start. Ormelian explains:
We are using Sonic TP52 as the platform to raise money for various programs in the Pacific Northwest through The Ocean Foundation (TOF). When you text OCEAN or SONIC to 91999 you get a text back with the invitation to contribute directly to TOF. Individual donations, along with corporate funds we are in the process of raising will benefit specific programs we are in the process of identifying. Fred Felleman (Port of Seattle Commissioner) and Peter Schrappen (NMTA) are advising us on the program selection. We are very passionate about the following three areas:
Marine Education – we identified Youth Maritime Collaborative as the beneficiary program. I am attending their event at Seattle Maritime Center today to learn more about their needs. Besides money donation, we plan to create an internship position.
Marine Safety – TBD
Marine Environment – TBD
We are always looking for input, so if you and your readers have any suggestions please let us know.
When the zephyrs cleared, Charlie Macaulay’s Absolutely won the race overall and class 8, which incidentally had seven of the first eight boats overall. More Jubilee won the three-boat tiebreaker among the J/105s, Sachem hung in well enough to win class 7 overall and Glory easily won the ORC class overall. Dos finished her class off with another bullet. In class 6, Don Leighton’s Tahlequah won the race and the series as class leader Elusive dropped to fifth for the race. Onboard was our intrepid weather guru Bruce Hedrick, who provided the following no-blow by no-blow race dissection:
Tahlequah’s Tale
By Bruce Hedrick from onboard Tahlequah
Well, it was a beautiful day on the water even though with just a .5MB pressure difference between Bellingham and Portland, we didn’t think there would even be a race. So we drifted around for a while and about 1110 we started to see a dark line extending to the west from West Point. The Race Committee also saw it and set a line and then hoisted the “S” flag with what we thought was a pretty optimistic course. Considering the time, tidal situation, and the forecast for less than existing wind it was going to be a stretch to even get back to F the first time.
Bruce Hedrick geared and waving pre-start.
I thought we had a pretty good start considering that we got tangled up with a J-120 who thought they were starting with us. After several of us yelled at him, he finally sailed off at about 30 seconds to go, leaving us one boat down from the heavily favored committee boat end. Darkside, the Shock 35, has been steadily improving this series and won the start however it wasn’t long until by going higher and faster we got into the lead. The series leader, the C&C 115 Elusive, went conservative at the start and was well to leeward of us and unable to point high, sagged off and was first into the outfall from the Ship Canal which set them back and slowed them down. We got into the shallows south of the Ship Canal and rather than tacking on anyone decided the best tactic was to sail our own race and find a clear lane to get up to the West Point Buoy.
In terms of who was where at this point, Darkside had gone a little further into the beach and closed up with us. The J-35 Solution and the other C&C 115 Fortuna had stayed out but gotten into the ebb coming around West Point and that set them back but since there was about two more knots of wind on the outside they didn’t lose much. Elusive had fallen well back and was starting to get tacked on by other boats which certainly didn’t help them. Rather than tacking back into the beach north of West Point, we stayed about three boat lengths off to keep our air clear and just try to get out to the West Point Buoy. It quickly became apparent that a major restart was developing at the WP Buoy and when boats tacked at the mark they pretty well parked up in the ebb. This was creating a picket fence effect so we just kept going out on port tack and kept our air clear as a nice port tack lift came through. The boats that did tack to starboard and could get back towards Magnolia did OK for a while but the stronger ebb along that shore slowed them down and then as the breeze backed from the SSE to ESE it lightened up in there as well.
We stayed out and watched as the big boats led by Glory came around behind us and then held port tack, going generally our direction. We also had sailed to leeward of Madrona and that put us in some good company in clear air. The other interesting feature at West Point that really helped the big boats was the fact that there was about 3 more knots of wind about 15-20 meters off the water. The big boats with square-top mains just kept moving. Crossfire was behind coming around the buoy but when they changed to the drifter and got a nice puff, they powered nicely into a lead they would never relinquish.
At this point, we were still on port tack just off of Four Mile Rock with the wind at about 100°M making about 1.3 knots over the bottom thinking that it was going to be a long day just to get to Duwamish Head. The wind continued to hold at about 3-4 knots but then began to clock around. The boats that had gone in under Magnolia, like Dos, parked up and gradually dropped astern. Darkside had rounded the buoy well too leeward and astern of us but, as Schock 35s generally do in 1-4 knots of wind, gradually went to leeward of us and got into the lead. Well behind was Solution, Fortuna, and Elusive generally sailing lower and slower. However, as we have painfully learned over the last couple of years you can’t put the C&C 115’s far enough behind on the upwind legs to hold them off when they put up the kites and get rolling downwind. Amazing what a carbon boat with more waterline, a lot more sail area can do going downwind. Especially so in this series as we had watched Elusive come from well astern, sail through our lee and then through Sachem’s lee to take the lead in the previous race.
As the breeze continued to clock around to the SW it was just a question of when to tack towards Duwamish. There was more breeze to the west and if you tacked too early you would get back into the light stuff. So we waited until we could tack and be about 20 degrees low of Duwamish. We had also seen the RC boat come around West Point and head towards Elliott Bay Marina. We were thinking, those dogs are going to get lunch at Maggie’s Bluff and then go back to finish us off Shilshole but no, they continued on up to Duwamish Head. Now it was a one tack drag race to the finish.
Darkside had held on to port longer than we had, so as the breeze continued to clock we had a slightly better angle to the finish. After we tacked we also immediately set up a barber hauler to move the jib lead out and forward and once we went to that, we were able to slowly sail away from Darkside and get back into the lead. We also started to get the crew ready for a spinnaker set as the newer boats around us went to their Code 0’s and really started to move nicely in conditions perfect for those specialty sails. Darkside was still to weather of us by about three boat lengths and just couldn’t stand to see us continue to boat speed away from them so they set a standard kite. We were ready to counter however the wind was still too far forward for our .6 to work so we just focused on constantly trimming for speed and moving the crew around below decks for the perfect angle of heel.Darkside had a little problem getting their kite to fill which slowed them down and forced them to sail lower. We used that as an opportunity to come up underneath them and put them directly astern of us by about three boat lengths. They then had to fall off even more which allowed us to boatspeed away from them and into another battle for clear air with two faster boats, an FT-10 and a Farr 395, coming in from astern. All the while, Dos had set a chute and went flying through our lee to get well ahead of us, again.
We managed to hold off the faster boats and finish just astern ofDos. Now it was a matter of seeing where the rest of our fleet finished after Darkside took a well-deserved second place. Solution had moved into third place with Fortuna next who was looking great flying a Code 0 and steadily moving away from series leader Elusive.
In the series, we had two seconds and a first for a series total of five points, with Elusive taking the silver with two firsts and a fifth for a total of seven, and taking the bronze was Darkside with a point total of nine.
Kudos to the Race Committee for getting it done in very difficult conditions.
Kurt grew up racing and cruising in the Midwest, and has raced Lasers since the late 1970s. Currently he is a broker at Swiftsure Yachts. He has been Assistant Editor at Sailing Magazine and a short stint as Editor of Northwest Yachting. Through Meadow Point Publishing he handles various marketing duties for smaller local companies. He currently is partners on a C&C 36 which he cruises throughout the Northwest. He’s married to the amazing Abby and is father to Ian and Gabe.
The first week of spring was certainly interesting with my brother in LA calling to complain that Seattle was 10 degrees warmer than LA. We also had three days of consecutive high temp records and we are now over 2” behind for rainfall year to date. This will all change starting this afternoon as a cold front moves over the area. Take a look at the satellite picture and the Langley Hill Doppler Radar and you’ll notice a very nice correlation between these two and where the front is located as of 1300 hours today.
March 22 500MB
March 22 Surface Analysis
March 23 Surface Forecast
March 24 500MB
March 24 Surface Forecast
March 25 Surface Forecast
March 26 Surface Forecast
Usually, frontal activity at this point on the day before a race is a good thing, not so much today. As you can see from the surface charts, the low to which this cold front is attached is relatively weak(997MB), not very stable and will become weaker (1003MB) over the next 24 hours as it is dragged off to the northwest and degraded by the coastal buffer zone. This will create a problem for tomorrow as there will be some wind from the south in the morning however as the day drags on it will become lighter and lighter as the pressure gradient expands over the Salish Sea.
Tidal Current at
West Point
0818 .34knts Ebb
1336 Slack
1636 1.00 Flood
1918 Slack
So while we may have wind for the start, it certainly looks like we won’t be able to complete the long course as two models have the Sound pretty well glassing-off by mid-afternoon. Maybe we’ll sail a shortened course. Who knows? There will be some rain around so dress accordingly and enjoy the day.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Corinthian YC’s Center Sound predictably kicks off the central Puget Sound racing season with three medium distance, one buoy rounding, 20-30 mile races. And, it seems usually, one race ends up a drifter and one a gear buster. 2018 had some different things in mind. Saturday’s Three Tree Point Race, which usually takes the fleet from Shilshole to Des Moines and back, was rerouted back and forth and up and down the central Sound so that it could be easily shortened if the wind died.
“I was a bit disappointed not to sail down to Three Tree,” Gaucho skipper John Cahill admitted, “but in the end liked the course.” Gaucho liked the course to the tune of first in Class 3 ahead of arch rivals Here & Now and Kiwi Express.
The course took the fleet to Blakely Rocks, across to Duwamish Head, to a temporary mark off Edmonds, back to West Point and finish for a total of nearly 27 miles. According to Cahill and others, the most interesting thing was reaching across the Sound. “The reaches were fun,” Cahill said. “It was marginal between going with a spinnaker or headsail. I have a cut-down Melges 24 asymmetrical that I don’t get to use often, but with that on board it was an easy decision.” They passed boats on the reach to Duwamish and reach back to West Point, then sailed on pins and needles avoiding the wind holes that kept appearing and disappearing while being hunted by their class.
Gaucho’s duel with Here & Now can be seen on this RaceQs file. Click on link below.
In Class 3, there’s not a lot of room for error. It is arguably the most competitive, closely rated and fun handicap class in the Seattle scene right now. Gaucho, Here & Now, Kiwi Express and Madame Pele were neck and neck for the whole series. They’re all racer-cruisers, and while they are all different, they have basic performance parameters in the same ballpark. It harkens back to the day when performance curves weren’t so dissimilar and the racing that much closer on the water.
Crossfire‘s Nigel Barron, who is no fan of the round the buoys racing in Center Sound (for Crossfire, anyway), admitted the alternative course for Three Tree wasn’t a bad one. “The wind did lighten up, and it was nice to do something different in that reach from Blakely Rock to Duwamish Head,” Barron said. He went on to ponder an alternative course for the supercharged ORC class, which is currently made up of the fastest boats in the fleet – “When the ORC class is not scored for overall, why couldn’t they have the fast boats do something different?” Something for race committees to think about considering the amazing speed of the fastest boats out there, even in the lightest of winds.
Unfortunately, photographer Jan Anderson’s Boat Boy Skip was down with the flu, so none of her great photos are available. I scoured Facebook to see what photos I could find from this year’s race, and this is what I came up with. Dave Reid, Melissa Davies and Robert Hodge get the credit for the pix! If you have any to share, please send them to me and I’ll add to this gallery.
Off watch on the Catalina 30 Abemndstern
Miss Mayhem reaching to victory
Crossing the Sound.
Eye Candy at the start.
There weren’t many other changes in the class standings from the previous two Center Sound races. Glory, Sachem, Selchie, Green Flash and More Jubilee won their classes handily. Kowloon, Here & Now and Dos had hard-fought series wins. Class 7 saw an epic battle between Joy Ride and Madrona with Absolutely not far behind. Fittingly, in the end it was John Murkowski’s Joy Ride breaking the tie for the class win but Carl Buchan’s Madrona taking the overall top boat spot. Joy Ride was second in fleet, Dos third and Sachem and More Jubilee tied for fourth.
CYC’s Race Fleet Captain Matt Wood was happy, particularly with the turnout. “Over 80 boats total in ORC, Casual and PHRF classes entered the series, easily the most participants the event has seen in several years.” He did admit to some glitches along the way but was pleased with how the races were managed in light of the ominous weather forecasts.
Kurt grew up racing and cruising in the Midwest, and has raced Lasers since the late 1970s. Currently he is a broker at Swiftsure Yachts. He has been Assistant Editor at Sailing Magazine and a short stint as Editor of Northwest Yachting. Through Meadow Point Publishing he handles various marketing duties for smaller local companies. He currently is partners on a C&C 36 which he cruises throughout the Northwest. He’s married to the amazing Abby and is father to Ian and Gabe.
Welcome to springtime in the Pacific Northwest! Last night it was spin the weather wheel and don’t be surprised at what comes up. Rain, snow, sleet, hail, and localized gusty winds all made guest appearances depending upon where you were. That is, however, spring in the Pacific Northwest.
March 23 500MB
March 23 Surface Analysis
March 24 500MB
March 24 Surface Forecast
March 25 500MB
March 25 Surface Forecast
March 27 500MB
March 27 Surface Forecast
This mornings surface analysis chart shows a weak area of low pressure (1000MB) with an attached frontal system just off our coast. Normally this would bode well for wind tomorrow, however, check the 500MB charts and you will see that the jet stream will drag this system slowly to the south and weaken it overnight. Instead of the low moving through the Salish Sea, it will come ashore near the southern Oregon coast late Saturday and disappear by Sunday. This system will still supply some wet weather over the weekend. The High-pressure (1030MB) you see off of Northern California will build and drift slowly to the East giving us some nice weather and warming temperatures next week. Look at the 500MB charts and as you can see, the jet stream will come across the Pacific at 30N-35N picking up the warmer air before arcing over that high and coming into our area. Low-pressure systems will still come into our area however they are weakening.
As for the Tree Tree Point Race, there will be tides, just not very much of them. At least they’ll be against us.
Tidal Current at West Point.
0748 Max Flood .53 knts
1024 Slack
1200 Max Ebb .29 knts
1406 Slack
2024 Max Flood 1.01 knts
The models are in agreement about what will happen tomorrow. They are NOT in agreement about when it will happen, not unusual. The basic situation is that we’ll start in a light (5-10 knots) southwesterly, it will get light about mid-day before it finally fills down from the north at 5-10 knots around mid-afternoon, winds generally closer to 5 than 10. Very little time under spinnaker but a lot of time beating. The Univ of Washington model is more optimistic with winds closer to 10 than to 5. With the GFS model, I have Crossfire around the course in just under six hours. The Race Committee did the right thing the last time when it looked like it was going to get flukey, I suspect they’ll do the same tomorrow. As my friend Nigel says, “There’s no real racing south of Alki.” The wind will be better in the central Sound north of Alki and south of Kingston.
Having said that, the problem is that as the wind goes into transition, it will die on the east side of the Sound first which will make marks placed there (Duwamish Head, Buchan Buoy, Pt. Wells)challenging.
Click to enlarge
A look deep into the crystal ball for next weekend, South Straits of Georgia. The high-pressure that is setting up offshore will tend to drift to the northwest and the gradient will ease over the area. The start is liable to be light on Friday however it does appear that by Friday afternoon the gradient will tighten and there should be a nice northwesterly over the race course. So for now, and remember woefully inaccurate, it doesn’t look like a gear buster. We’ll have a special South Straits update this Thursday, with a regular Bruce’s Briefs on Friday.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
CYC’s Center Sound Series wrapped up with a gorgeous Three Tree Point Race on Saturday. The course, however, didn’t ever get near Three Tree Point as it was shortened to Shilshole-Alki-Meadowpoint-finish. The southerly stayed in the 12-16 knot range for the most part and was actually a bit higher for the beat to Alki. Just as Bruce Hedrick predicted. (sorry, had to mention it)
So it was a fast race with plenty of time to party afterward, and no real surprises in the results. Sachem is still a force upwind, and with waterline conditions downwind she held on for a 2-second overall win ahead of Bravo Zulu and 46 seconds ahead of Finale. In fact it was an all around good day for the “furniture” boats of the fleet, with most of the classes won by medium weight boats with real interiors.
Check out these photos from Jan Anderson and see the all of them on her site.
The Class 5 Starting Scrum
The J/105 Starting Scrum
The Class 8 Scrum
Bravo Zulu
Bruce Hedrick (second from the stern) and the Tahlequah gang.
“Gloryous” Moveable Ballast
Jam Rounding at Alki
John Cahill’s Gaucho finished 3rd in Class 3.
Jedi heading into Elliott Bay
Ageless Cals Cherokee (red stripe) and Madrugador
Even the slowest rated boat, the absolutely lovely Aquavit, finished before 2pm.
Crossfire’s Track
In the ORC class laden with carbon rockets, furniture didn’t fare quite as well. Glory chased Crossfire closely around the course the entire way, taking the victory from the mighty 55-footer on corrected time. the Farr 395 Eye Candy, a bone fide cruiser-racer, did manage third on corrected time for her best race of the series.
Different Drummer
Among the cruiser racers that deserve special mention is the Wauquez 40 Different Drummer. Designed by Berret/Racoupeau Yacht Design, it is a great example of what a modern cruiser racer can be. Owner Charles Hill explains the wins didn’t come right away. “It’s taken us a while. We’ve been at this for nine years.” But with being named 48 North’s top boat for 2016, and another Center Sound class win under her belt, it’s clear Different Drummer has found her stride. Hill, who is originally from the U.K., credits a stable, skilled crew for the uptick the last couple of years. A new bottom last year didn’t hurt.
Hill, whose previous racing was on the Irish Sea in events like the Fastnet, says the conditions there aren’t dissimilar to here. And, funny enough, he didn’t buy the boat for racing originally. “We were sucked into the racing,” he explained. Drummer of course has heat and and a fridge, among many other comforts.
For Three Tree, Different Drummer had a single mission, stay in touch with and hopefully ahead of the Sierra 26 Dos. “We figure below eight knots they’re going to beat us, and above 18 knots it doesn’t matter what we do upwind, they’ll just fly by us downwind,” Hill says. “Ten to 16 knots is our sweet spot.” With a 2,1,1 series in a variety conditions, I’d say the sweet spot is sweet indeed.
Oh yeah, and why the shortened course? I’ll let Matt Wood, Race Fleet Captain for CYC, explain:
All the wind models the PRO and I looked at that morning were calling for the wind dying quickly around 1 PM. As many boats DNF’d due to lack of wind in the Blakely Rock race, if the same thing were to happen in the 3Tree Point race, we could have had a 1 race ” series” .
As the only mark in the non “alternative course” description was the 3 Tree Point turning mark, we face a logistics challenge to attempt to get on station down there and finish, but also maintain a finish line off Shilshole. The whalers are less than ideal for this purpose, and YC5 cannot be in 2 places at once, nor can it move that fast.
As such, we decided to run a race in what wind we did have, and , of course, the breeze held all afternoon. That said, the breeze did eventually go light and variable in the middle of the afternoon off Alki, and was pretty much done off Shilshole by 5 or so, which would have been when the majority of the fleet would have made it to the original finish line. We did not please everyone, but we did get a 3 race series in for most people, and pulled off a good social event at the YC in the afternoon. As a note, the RC did not get off the water until 3 PM notwithstanding, as there were several stragglers.
Up next, Sloop Tavern’s Blakely Rock Benefit Race. This year it will benefit The Sailing Foundation, so pony up and get out there. The Sailing Foundation does great things for young sailors around here. And, as always, we’ll be tapping Hedrick to prognosticate the weather on Friday.
Remember, you can sign up for the sailish.com newsletter. I’m also trying to get some local discussion going on forums. Just look for the “Forums: Have Your Say” menu item and pull down. You’ll have to register over in the sidebar. Let me know if anything isn’t working, or if you have some topics you’d like to get going.
Kurt grew up racing and cruising in the Midwest, and has raced Lasers since the late 1970s. Currently he is a broker at Swiftsure Yachts. He has been Assistant Editor at Sailing Magazine and a short stint as Editor of Northwest Yachting. Through Meadow Point Publishing he handles various marketing duties for smaller local companies. He currently is partners on a C&C 36 which he cruises throughout the Northwest. He’s married to the amazing Abby and is father to Ian and Gabe.
It’s the last race of the Center Sound Series and only a week to go before the Sloop Tavern Blakely Rock Benefit Race. Not only is the weather warming up, so is the racing and so is the cruising. For the first time in a long time, there were boats headed across the Sound to Blake Island this morning. Those folks are the smart ones as they are testing their boats before they go on the longer cruises later this spring or summer. This will give them plenty of time to make arrangements with their boatyard, boat maintenance facility or sailmaker to get any problems taken care of before the late spring/summer rush puts you way down the list. Just a thought….
(Ed. Note: We’re trying something new to us, a forum! If you want to discuss Bruce’s brief, the race or the series, try going here. You’ll have to create a login in the sidebar at the right. Of course, keep it civil and productive. Also, please help spread the word about this weather brief and the forum.)
While we’ve had yet another fairly wet week, tomorrow actually looks fairly decent with minimal rain and a nice breeze for racing even though we are going south of Alki. However, don’t get all excited and break out the lawn chairs and BBQ quite yet. Be sure to look at the 28 March Surface Forecast Chart and note that fairly nasty 973MB Low-Pressure system in the mid-Pacific with the label Hurricane Force. Yes, it will slightly degrade as it comes across the Pacific however it’s on track to get to the Pacific Northwest by next weekend. We’ll be watching that one.
Tidal Current at Sewage Point, whoops, I mean West Point.
0918 Slack
1224 Max Flood .85 knots
1512 Slack
1718 Max Ebb .43 knots
2006 Slack
Since the tides are fairly minimal and mostly favorable we’ll focus on the wind and the course. The front on today’s chart rolled through our area between 0600 and 0700 this morning and we are now in a post-frontal situation which will hold through Saturday and see the offshore wind go from due southerly now to southwesterly and then westerly tomorrow before backing to the south-southeast on Sunday. The good news is that when the wind finally does force its way down the Straits into Admiralty Inlet, we should be finished. Keep your fingers crossed. The models are currently in agreement that we should have consistently south-southwesterly breeze over the entire course. Look for 8 to 15 in the starting area, which should build as you go across Elliott Bay to 10 to 20 and then ease to 10 to 15 from Alki to Three Tree Point. You’ll be sailing primarily on starboard tack and remember that the shortest course is right down the east side of the Sound so start with the headsail in the starboard groove so you can take a short hitch to port, hoist the new jib, and then tack back to the favored starboard tack to drop the old headsail.
March 24 Doppler
March 24 500MB
March 24 Surface Forecast
March 25 Surface Forecast
March 26 500MB
March 28 500MB
March 28 Surface Forecast
Once again, since you’ll be sailing through the slower boats in front of you, find the clear air and don’t spend time sailing in dirty air.
At Three Tree Point, give the Point plenty of clearance. If you go aground here, your friends will never let you forget it. You’ll want to have all your spin gear set up for a port pole, port tack hoist and get this done before you leave the dock so you can keep everyone hiking all the way to the mark.
The run back to the finish should be fairly straight forward with no need to gybe. As you sail up the Sound be sure to watch the boats in front to see if the breeze goes forward near the top end of Vashon and Blake Island before coming aft again north of Alki. Have a headsail tee’d up just in case. This is also a leg where a staysail will pay dividends so talk about that in the morning before you leave the dock. Also, once everything is set and working, send the navigator below to check the wind reports on the VHF to make sure the northerly isn’t coming down the Sound ahead of schedule.
On the run back after about 1400 hours look for the breeze to start to drop from 10-15 to 6-10 knots. It will pay to be an early finisher in your fleet.
Sunday look for a strong pre-frontal southeasterly to develop in the eastern Straits while the breeze will stay less than 10 knots over the central and south Sound and oh yeah, the rain will return on Sunday as well.
Be safe and have a great day on the water.
So how fast will Crossfire go around the course tomorrow? Based upon a course of 30 nm and Crossfire sailing 31.78 miles they should finish in 2 hrs 53 min and 40 secs. WOW!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
One of the impossible things to explain to non-sailors is that floating around waiting for a race to happen (that never does happen) can actually be a fine way to spend a day. Such was the case with Saturday’s Three Tree What’s the Point Race.
The point was it was a lot of fun to catch up with mates. And while the crews all cheered when CYC called it off (after valiant attempt to get a shortened course race off), my guess is for nearly everyone it was a welcome, enforced, time off from their daily lives. There weren’t even too many cell phones out.
Thank goodness some cell phones were out, because we caught some shenanigans on Double Take. Thanks to Brian Ferris and Dave Ferguson for the footage.
First, there was that seal. We’re not sure what particular kind of salmon she was smoking, but she went crazy, porpoising and clearing the water over and over again for what seemed like an hour and a half, but was probably only about 15 minutes. There was something about Elusive that kept her there most of the time, so close the crew could have easily touched her on some of her jumps. (Maybe somebody from Elusive can share the video that surely took)
Then there is Malcolm’s Jump, perhaps inspired by the seal. Nobody has embraced sailboat racing more quickly or with more enthusiasm than Malcolm MacNeil. And he’s got the fun part down better than most.
Wouldn’t it be nice to have our friend the seal visit for every race delay? Or maybe Malcolm can just swim around from boat to boat and jump of spreaders. Regardless, it was a fine day for animals.
So, the results from the first two races stand and all those rivalries will have to wait for another day before they’re settled.
Kurt grew up racing and cruising in the Midwest, and has raced Lasers since the late 1970s. Currently he is a broker at Swiftsure Yachts. He has been Assistant Editor at Sailing Magazine and a short stint as Editor of Northwest Yachting. Through Meadow Point Publishing he handles various marketing duties for smaller local companies. He currently is partners on a C&C 36 which he cruises throughout the Northwest. He’s married to the amazing Abby and is father to Ian and Gabe.
It’s the last race of the Series and I could say that it’s going to be interesting. However, that is generally true every time you leave the dock to go sailing in the Spring in Puget Sound. What makes this more interesting than most days is the fact that the models have diverged instead of the usual converging the way they tend to as we get closer to the date in question. The reason for this can be seen in the Surface Forecast Charts for tonight and tomorrow. (Remember to subtract seven now to get from UTC to PDT.) As you can see, we have a weak area of high pressure to the east with an approaching front, tailing off of a weak and dissipating low pressure system centered off of southeast Alaska. That’s coming in off the Pacific with a weak high pressure system behind it.
Friday Night’s SURF
Saturday a.m. SURF
Saturday p.m. SURF
The speed of this front has been inconsistent and generally speaking, weak frontal systems tend to slow as they get closer to the coast. As you can see, this cold front has been overrunning the warm front ahead of it creating an occluded front, very typical however when this occurs as the fronts approach the coast it makes it difficult to predict how fast the front will come onshore. Hence, the word interesting.
Tomorrow’s race will all come down to how we handle the highly variable conditions. Combined with the following tides at West Point:
0603 Slack
0919 .9 Ebb
1303 Slack
1548 .7 Flood
1907 Slack
It will be challenging to say the least. Based upon this morning’s GRIB files we’ll probably have 3-5 knots from the SSE to start, with the wind slowly clocking around to SSW and 4-8 knots at 1330 before it starts to back and slowly build from the SSE and maybe getting up to 8-10 knots.
West Point wind vs pressure plot
For the big boats that will mean finishing at 1500-1600 hrs, in other words right at max flood.
So in these variable conditions and a lot of sailing in anti-water it will be important to remember that the shortest possible course will be down the East side of the Sound. Keep a hand bearing compass handy to track how any defectors to the West might be doing. There will be a fair amount of current at West Point and there will tend to be less wind in Elliott Bay so holding port tack out from West Point will get you into less tide and should keep you in more breeze. It’s usually picking your way across Elliott Bay to Alki that can create both major gains and losses. From Alki south to TTP it will be a matter of finding the best breeze and trying to see if there’s a pattern to the oscillations.
The run home from TTP could be very interesting as one set of GRIBs has the wind around to 230-240⁰M at 6-8 knots which could mean Code O’s for the fast boats. The NAM GRIBS have the wind staying between 185⁰ and 200⁰M. Either way, trimmers and drivers are going to have to be working very hard. Since we’ll be fighting the flood all the way north, the temptation will be to stay east out of the flood while still sailing the polars and keeping the boat at targets. Ideally, you’d look for shifts to gybe back to the east to get out of the flood if you find yourself sailing in anti-water however if there has been any clearing during the day in the afternoon this will cause the wind to lift off the east shore so it may get light if you get in too close. Eyes out of the boat!
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So in the morning get every extra ounce of non-essential gear off the boat, drain the water tanks and take only enough fuel to get safely home from TTP. It’s not an overnight race so don’t let the crew bring huge seabags with a change of clothes for every watch change and the post race party. Bring on board only what you are wearing and going to eat. Carefully log the pressure from your WX-VHF so you can track how fast the front is coming ashore. Before you leave the house check the Washington State Ferry Weather, the NDBC West Point(WPOW1) Plot of wind and pressure, and the NWS radar at Langley Hill to see if the front is showing up on the Doppler. During the race track the pressure changes and wind velocities at the stations north and west of West Point as the south-southeasterly will move south and build from that direction.
Remember also that it can get a little shallow at TTP so resist the temptation to cut it too close. If there was ever a place to make sure the crew is all on the same page, thinking three maneuvers ahead, and the driver and tactician are anticipating mark rounding situations, it’s at the rounding mark “C” at TTP. Don’t hesitate to talk it through, the foredeck will greatly appreciate a plan that you can stick to.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
We’ll know more tomorrow when Bruce Hedrick clues us in to Saturday’s weather/tactical scenario, but as of right now it’s looking light for Three Tree Point, the final race of CYC’s Center Sound Series. Check back tomorrow late afternoon or evening, or sign up for the email list in the sidebar to get notified of all the posts via email.
With that in mind, who’s going to win? Bloggers get to toss out their prognostications as they’re worth exactly the amount as the paper they’re printed on, so that’s what I’m doing. Here goes:
IRC: John Buchan has the TP 52 Glory dialed in, and we can expect that to continue. Look for 55′ Crossfire to possibly get it rolling, particularly if the wind is stronger just a leeeetle bit higher off the water than the TP’s squaretops. Steve Travis’ Smoke crew is figuring it out, and their time will come. And watch out for Double Take. We’re hungry.
Multi: A wild guess that Freda Mae, the only entry, will win. Where are the multis?
PHRF Class 7: Terremoto generally has her way with this rating band no matter the wind conditions. Charlie Macaulay has Absolutely going fast, but it’s a tall order to keep up with all that asymmetrical sail area on Terremoto downwind in the light stuff. Wouldn’t it be great to see the super skinny Bob Perry designed Francis Lee ghost out ahead? They had a rough time of it with a new chute in Scatchet Head. Carl and Carol Buchan’s Madrona was out for the last race, and if out they are always a threat.
Class 6: Sachem, Sachem, Sachem. I just loved it the last couple Scatchet Heads when Bill Buchan opted for winging out his jib instead of death rolling all the way to Whidbey Island, and doing just fine, thank you very much. You won’t catch me betting against Bill Buchan. Denny Vaughn’s Bravo Zulu is, as always, strong and can be expected to stay in the money. The J109s Tantivy and Shada should both be back in contentions after their DNFs for Scatchet. If you haven’t read the story of Tantivy‘s man overboard recovery, it’s here.
Class 5: You can’t get a lot different from the first two boats in this class, the Wauquiez C40S Different Drummer and the Sierra 26 Dos. DD is a strong, modern cruiser racer built to cross oceans and cruise in comfort after the race is over. The Sierra? Well, not so much. Dos has proven fast in all conditions and hasn’t capsized in a while, so look for her to excel.
Class 4: That J/105 class is solid and it’s winner take all between More Jubilee and Last Tango for Three Tree Point. Flip a coin. And try not to disrupt things if you see them match racing.
Back in 2014 the J/105s jockeyed for position at the start of another not-so-windy Three Tree Point Race. Jan Anderson Photo.
Class 3: Here and Now looked awesome in Scatchet Head, but is tied with John Cahill’s Gaucho for the series. Three Tree will be another chapter in their long rivalry. This is a very interesting and competitive class and, despite the differences in boats, they all have similar performance parameters. Muffin and Kiwi Express will keep the front runners honest. I’m thinking it’s Gaucho‘s year.
Class 2: Here’s another class where three disparate boats are nearly tied for points. Cherokee is leading, followed by the J/80 Jolly Green and Ken Chin’s Kowloon. I’m guessing the J/80 might have the advantage if conditions get really sticky.
Class 1 : The Tbird Selchie has a 2nd and 1st in the series, but Nate Creitz’ Olson 35 Three Ring Circus is right there, and with it’s masthead rig could well have an advantage on Saturday if winds are as light as predicted.
Casual Class: Five boats were entered in this class, but so far only four have sailed and only Kite has finished both races. This is the class in which the brothers Burcar and I would enter the C&C 36 Slipstream (with our crew of 1 thru 9 year olds and a solid three bladed prop), so I’m keeping an eye on it. That’s the class where the boat having the most fun wins, right? That could go either with a boatload of kids.
Again, check out Bruce’s forecast tomorrow. Have a great race. If you have your own predictions, share them in the comments area below.
Kurt grew up racing and cruising in the Midwest, and has raced Lasers since the late 1970s. Currently he is a broker at Swiftsure Yachts. He has been Assistant Editor at Sailing Magazine and a short stint as Editor of Northwest Yachting. Through Meadow Point Publishing he handles various marketing duties for smaller local companies. He currently is partners on a C&C 36 which he cruises throughout the Northwest. He’s married to the amazing Abby and is father to Ian and Gabe.
