For a while this week it looked like we would get two consecutive weekends of great sailing. Then again it is the Pacific Northwest. The models were converging for a while however by this morning the topography of the Northwest was wreaking havoc on consistency. But the weekend is here, as is the Gig Harbor YC Islands Race, so let’s take a look.
Tidal Current taken from the North end of the Narrows, Center Stream.
0948 Slack
1330 Max Ebb 3.01 knots
1700 Slack
1924 Max Flood 2.61 knots
Since the current always flows north in Colvos Passage, the real key is to watch your COG and SOG and when you’re going north, find the axis of the current. When going south, avoid the axis when you can.
The reason why this weekend will be so challenging for forecasters is that once again a few miles difference in how the low interacts with the coast will make a big difference in the wind over the Sound. As you can see from the charts for today there are two lows off our coast, both with attached frontal systems and both moving to the northeast. The low currently off of northern California will have it’s front over us early tomorrow morning. If it tracks further offshore because of our coastal buffer zone then the post frontal onshore flow will travel further down the Sound creating a northerly scenario in Colvos. If it holds its current path the northerly will be delayed and Colvos will end up being a dead zone between the post frontal southwesterly breeze coming through the Chehalis Gap and the northerly filling down the Straits and then down Admiralty Inlet. If it passes closer to the coast and is slowed we could have a stronger onshore flow through the Chehalis Gap that would keep a southwesterly flow over the race course until late afternoon.
Regardless of which hand we are dealt it’s going to be an interesting race and because the GHYC always puts on a great event, especially before and after the race, it’s bound to be a lot of fun.
Almost regardless, the start will be downwind in a southwesterly of 5-12 knots. As you work your way up Colvos, the breeze will tend to back and probably back off to the 3-5 knot range. It’s as you get closer to the north end of Colvos that it could get very interesting as a convergent zone develops from Blake Island south to somewhere between View Park and Anderson Point. The transition may even have the breeze backing around to the east before becoming northeasterly and then northerly. Foredeck crews, navigators and trimmers are going to be busy but at least it will be raining.
When dealing with these transition zones it will be important for the foredeck crews to remember to keep putting the headsail up in the port groove because once you get back into the southwesterly in Colvos, it will start out light and then slowly build. You’ll have long starboard tacks and short port tacks as you keep working to the west side of Colvos to stay out of the ebb tide. That way if you have to do a change you’ll have more time to set it up on the starboard tack. In Colvos the puffs will be lifts on starboard tack so main trimmers and drivers will be working especially hard.
I had some fun last week with predicting elapsed times (and the final tally here) for some of the boats so I’ll roll the dice again, however, I have a much lower confidence level for this forecast because of the changing parameters. This week I’ll use one of my favorite boats, the J-160 Jam which is currently predicted to go around the course in 4 hrs and 2 min. So we’ll see….. Have a great race.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)