Center Sound Series

Bruce’s Brief for Three Tree Point

Bruce Hedrick Racing, Weather , , 0 Comment
Bruce’s Brief for Three Tree Point

It’s the last race of the Series and I could say that it’s going to be interesting. However, that is generally true every time you leave the dock to go sailing in the Spring in Puget Sound. What makes this more interesting than most days is the fact that the models have diverged instead of the usual converging the way they tend to as we get closer to the date in question. The reason for this can be seen in the Surface Forecast Charts for tonight and tomorrow. (Remember to subtract seven now to get from UTC to PDT.) As you can see, we have a weak area of high pressure to the east with an approaching front, tailing off of a weak and dissipating low pressure system centered off of southeast Alaska. That’s coming in off the Pacific with a weak high pressure system behind it.

The speed of this front has been inconsistent and generally speaking, weak frontal systems tend to slow as they get closer to the coast. As you can see, this cold front has been overrunning the warm front ahead of it creating an occluded front, very typical however when this occurs as the fronts approach the coast it makes it difficult to predict how fast the front will come onshore. Hence, the word interesting.

Tomorrow’s race will all come down to how we handle the highly variable conditions. Combined with the following tides at West Point:

0603                        Slack

0919                        .9 Ebb

1303                        Slack

1548                        .7 Flood

1907                        Slack

 

It will be challenging to say the least. Based upon this morning’s GRIB files we’ll probably have 3-5 knots from the SSE to start, with the wind slowly clocking around to SSW and 4-8 knots at 1330 before it starts to back and slowly build from the SSE and maybe getting up to 8-10 knots.

West Point wind vs pressure plot
West Point wind vs pressure plot

For the big boats that will mean finishing at 1500-1600 hrs, in other words right at max flood.

So in these variable conditions and a lot of sailing in anti-water it will be important to remember that the shortest possible course will be down the East side of the Sound. Keep a hand bearing compass handy to track how any defectors to the West might be doing. There will be a fair amount of current at West Point and there will tend to be less wind in Elliott Bay so holding port tack out from West Point will get you into less tide and should keep you in more breeze. It’s usually picking your way across Elliott Bay to Alki that can create both major gains and losses. From Alki south to TTP it will be a matter of finding the best breeze and trying to see if there’s a pattern to the oscillations.

The run home from TTP could be very interesting as one set of GRIBs has the wind around to 230-240⁰M at 6-8 knots which could mean Code O’s for the fast boats. The NAM GRIBS have the wind staying between 185⁰ and 200⁰M. Either way, trimmers and drivers are going to have to be working very hard. Since we’ll be fighting the flood all the way north, the temptation will be to stay east out of the flood while still sailing the polars and keeping the boat at targets. Ideally, you’d look for shifts to gybe back to the east to get out of the flood if you find yourself sailing in anti-water however if there has been any clearing during the day in the afternoon this will cause the wind to lift off the east shore so it may get light if you get in too close. Eyes out of the boat!

Click on any image to enlarge:

So in the morning get every extra ounce of non-essential gear off the boat, drain the water tanks and take only enough fuel to get safely home from TTP. It’s not an overnight race so don’t let the crew bring huge seabags with a change of clothes for every watch change and the post race party. Bring on board only what you are wearing and going to eat. Carefully log the pressure from your WX-VHF so you can track how fast the front is coming ashore. Before you leave the house check the Washington State Ferry Weather, the NDBC West Point(WPOW1) Plot of wind and pressure, and the NWS radar at Langley Hill to see if the front is showing up on the Doppler. During the race track the pressure changes and wind velocities at the stations north and west of West Point as the south-southeasterly will move south and build from that direction.

Remember also that it can get a little shallow at TTP so resist the temptation to cut it too close. If there was ever a place to make sure the crew is all on the same page, thinking three maneuvers ahead, and the driver and tactician are anticipating mark rounding situations, it’s at the rounding mark “C” at TTP. Don’t hesitate to talk it through, the foredeck will greatly appreciate a plan that you can stick to.

Have a great time and a safe race.

Center Sound Finale Predictions

Kurt Hoehne Racing , 0 Comment
Center Sound Finale Predictions

We’ll know more tomorrow when Bruce Hedrick clues us in to Saturday’s weather/tactical scenario, but as of right now it’s looking light for Three Tree Point, the final race of CYC’s Center Sound Series. Check back tomorrow late afternoon or evening, or sign up for the email list in the sidebar to get notified of all the posts via email.

With that in mind, who’s going to win? Bloggers get to toss out their prognostications as they’re worth exactly the amount as the paper they’re printed on, so that’s what I’m doing. Here goes:

IRC: John Buchan has the TP 52 Glory dialed in, and we can expect that to continue. Look for 55′ Crossfire to possibly get it rolling, particularly if the wind is stronger just a leeeetle bit higher off the water than the TP’s squaretops. Steve Travis’ Smoke crew is figuring it out, and their time will come. And watch out for Double Take. We’re hungry.

Multi: A wild guess that Freda Mae, the only entry, will win. Where are the multis?

PHRF Class 7: Terremoto generally has her way with this rating band no matter the wind conditions. Charlie Macaulay has Absolutely going fast, but it’s a tall order to keep up with all that asymmetrical sail area on Terremoto downwind in the light stuff. Wouldn’t it be great to see the super skinny Bob Perry designed Francis Lee ghost out ahead? They had a rough time of it with a new chute in Scatchet Head. Carl and Carol Buchan’s Madrona was out for the last race, and if out they are always a threat.

Class 6: Sachem, Sachem, Sachem. I just loved it the last couple Scatchet Heads when Bill Buchan opted for winging out his jib instead of death rolling all the way to Whidbey Island, and doing just fine, thank you very much. You won’t catch me betting against Bill Buchan. Denny Vaughn’s Bravo Zulu is, as always, strong and can be expected to stay in the money. The J109s Tantivy and Shada should both be back in contentions after their DNFs for Scatchet. If you haven’t read the story of Tantivy‘s man overboard recovery, it’s here.

Class 5: You can’t get a lot different from the first two boats in this class, the Wauquiez C40S Different Drummer and the Sierra 26 Dos. DD is a strong, modern cruiser racer built to cross oceans and cruise in comfort after the race is over. The Sierra? Well, not so much. Dos has proven fast in all conditions and hasn’t capsized in a while, so look for her to excel.

Class 4: That J/105 class is solid and it’s winner take all between More Jubilee and Last Tango for Three Tree Point. Flip a coin. And try not to disrupt things if you see them match racing.

Back in 2014 the J/105s jockeyed for position at the start of another not-so-windy Three Tree Point Race. Jan Anderson Photo.
Back in 2014 the J/105s jockeyed for position at the start of another not-so-windy Three Tree Point Race. Jan Anderson Photo.

Class 3: Here and Now looked awesome in Scatchet Head, but is tied with John Cahill’s Gaucho for the series. Three Tree will be another chapter in their long rivalry. This is a very interesting and competitive class and, despite the differences in boats, they all have similar performance parameters. Muffin and Kiwi Express will keep the front runners honest. I’m thinking it’s Gaucho‘s year.

Class 2: Here’s another class where three disparate boats are nearly tied for points. Cherokee is leading, followed by the J/80 Jolly Green and Ken Chin’s Kowloon. I’m guessing the J/80 might have the advantage if conditions get really sticky.

Class 1 : The Tbird Selchie has a 2nd and 1st in the series, but Nate Creitz’ Olson 35 Three Ring Circus is right there, and with it’s masthead rig could well have an advantage on Saturday if winds are as light as predicted.

Casual Class: Five boats were entered in this class, but so far only four have sailed and only Kite has finished both races. This is the class in which the brothers Burcar and I would enter the C&C 36 Slipstream (with our crew of 1 thru 9 year olds and a solid three bladed prop), so I’m keeping an eye on it. That’s the class where the boat having the most fun wins, right? That could go either with a boatload of kids.

Again, check out Bruce’s forecast tomorrow. Have a great race. If you have your own predictions, share them in the comments area below.

 

 

 

Another Scatchet Head Scorcher

Kurt Hoehne Racing, Seamanship , , 0 Comment
Another Scatchet Head Scorcher

Got Seamanship?

There’s nothing like a man overboard incident in a racing situation to see who’s got seamanship and who doesn’t.

Yep, if you haven’t heard, there was at least one overboard incident in last Saturday’s Scatchet Head Race. It was handled so well there really was no reason to hear about it. Unless you want to learn something from it.58919

It all started when Gina Layton was deposited in the drink during a tack. Skipper Stuart Burnell and the Tantivy crew handled Gina’s swimming sojourn with consummate skill, getting her back onboard within a minute and a half and then getting themselves out of a grounding as swimmer and boat had drifted onto the shallow shelf off Edmonds before getting stuck there.

Nope, no issues there. Another boat even stood by just in case.

Burnell has written up the rescue and lessons learned.

The issue and some questions apply to everyone else who was out there. How many of us would react as well? How many of us have even deployed a Lifesling in rehearsal? (a fair number, I’m sure, but not nearly all.)

And how many of us take this as a sign that we need to practice, prepare and talk about man overboard and other situations more often? Seamanship, in my view, is mostly about preparing the crew for such a situation.

The first step in preparation may be listening to Neptune’s warnings. I’m thinking Gina’s plunge was one of those.

The Race

There was a race, and what a race it was. The run to Scatchet Head was fast, and the mid 20-kt gusts rewarded the planing hulls and punished heavier boats that stayed in displacement mode too much of the time. And made for some great Jan Anderson photos.

The beat back was very puffy, and sharp driving and main trim in the puffs could make a big difference one way or another.

There were a few surprises, the first being that the wind died, not built as we got further north. Another surprise was a slight right hand shift after rounding the mark that helped some of the boats coming from behind.

The stories will be trickling out over the next couple of weeks, and I plan on collecting a few then inciting a few rivalries before Three Tree Point.

In the meantime, there were a few great performances that deserve mention.

On Double Take we had to take a couple transoms to get back to the left side of the course. Jan Anderson photos.
On Double Take we had to take a couple transoms to get back to the left side of the course. Jan Anderson photos.

After I reminded Charlie and his great Absolutely great crew one too many times about last year’s dismasting, they sailed an amazing race (on the former Voodoo Child) and handily won the very tough class 7. Congrats Charlie! Here and Now must have had things rolling along downwind and certainly looked good coming back to weather. On Double Take it took us a frightfully long time to catch up to her again. And don’t you just love it when a Thunderbird (Selchie) wins her class in those conditions?

Those two TP 52s, Glory and Smoke, are ridiculously fast both downwind and upwind in those conditions. Crossfire, the Reichel/Pugh 55 hit 26 knots. We may hear more from Crossfire‘s navigator Bruce Hedrick on that score if we can pry him away from the navigation hardware and software he’s working on for Vic-Maui.

Results here. Jan Anderson’s photos here.

Stay tuned, I’ll be back before Three Tree Point.

 

 

 

 

Bruce’s Brief: Scatchet Head Race

Bruce Hedrick Racing, Weather , 0 Comment
Bruce’s Brief: Scatchet Head Race

I think we will agree that we’ve had enough wind this week, but going north to Scatchet Head we’d really like to have enough to get all the way around the course.

Well, even though we are between fronts again, it definitely looks like we will have breeze. In a nutshell, the breeze will be stronger in the morning (15-20 knots)and building as you sail north (20 to 25+knots). On the beat on the way back the breeze should ease a little and then start build again. See the 1500 hour MM5 chart with 30 knots possible in the Richmond Beach –Pt Wells area.

West Point Wind Plot
West Point Wind Plot

There is another fairly strong system approaching the coast however it won’t get here until Sunday late afternoon or early evening. Look for a southeasterly in the starting area becoming a building due southerly as you work your way north to the mark. So be prepared before you leave the dock in the morning with the crew all in pfd’s, safety harnesses, and tethers, with the jacklines rigged and in place.

Next think about which headsail you’ll want to use for the beat back from Scatchet Head because that’s the headsail you’ll want to use in the starting area for this downwind start. Next, anticipate where you’ll want to do your final gybe before the mark in the building breeze.

Currentrs Scatchet HeadThe tide will be at near max ebb in the starting area so don’t get caught below the line trying to beat back up with a tide trying to push you to north and your entire fleet reaching over the top of you giving you a massive dose of dirty air.

You will probably hold the starboard gybe off the line until about halfway to the Richmond oil docks where the breeze will start to clock and lift you. That’s when to gybe to port and work your way back to the center of the Sound. Between the oil docks and the Edmonds Ferry Dock you’ll probably want to gybe back to starboard. You’ll hold starboard until you can gybe back to a layline that is east of the Scatchet Head mark. Why? Because the ebb tide will be pushing you towards the mark to pushing you to west and past the mark. The ebb will probably be flowing at 1 to 1.5 knots flowing due west as you approach the mark.

 

 

Another possibility is that if it is really cranking as you sail north and you don’t feel particularly comfortable about gybing, sail past that layline and then drop the kite behind the headsail, get everything under control and then do the gybe. This way you’ll have plenty of time to get your fast settings for the beat before you get to the mark.

You’ll probably round and come up on to a port tack. Only hold this for about 100 yards at the most before you tack back to starboard and get to the Edmonds shore. The ebb is going to last until around 1400 hours and maybe longer as there will be plenty of water coming down the Snohomish River and out Possession Sound. Since we’ll all have a couple of hours of ebb to fight after rounding you may want to think twice about going to the west as that would mean having to cross the ebb twice to get to the finish. Going to the east has two advantages. The first being that after you get off the Possession Bar and you can start to see north into Possession Sound you’ll begin to get the advantage of the ebb flowing south out of Possession. The water will also get flatter and there will be a very localized south-southeasterly along that beach which will allow you to hold port tack as you sail roughly parallel to shore north of the Edmonds Ferry Dock. The breeze may also lighten as you get in closer to the beach. Watch your COG and SOG on port, and when you get back out into anti-water, tack back to starboard and go back into the beach.

 

As you beat past the Ferry dock, the breeze will once again stay out of the due south and you’ll be in the ebb which will begin to ease around 1500 hours. it will be about .3 knot less on the east shore than if you were fighting it on the west shore of the Sound. Remember also that from Edmonds south to Point Wells there is a very shallow area that goes out quite a ways so watch the sounder. The same as you go from Point Wells to Richmond Beach. South of there it will be a matter of finding lanes of clear air, working the beach and not spending too much time out in the ebb.

As you come up the beach and get closer to the finish off of Meadow Point don’t go so far in that you overstand the finish. It’s OK to tack to port to come off the beach with some in the bank because the ebb and the flow out of the Ship Canal will push you below the layline and you probably don’t want to have to tack back to starboard to get to the finish.

Be safe and have a great race.

(Feature photo – courtesy Jan Anderson – of Absolutely coming back to Seattle with a broken mast. The new Absolutely is looking good and chances are Charlie Macaulay and company will very careful with their gybes this year!)