It was a roaring start to the Fastnet Race in England. Winds gusting into the high 20s, with wind against current producing some really angry chop. Our PNW team aboard the First 40 Jazz had a good start and apparently worked their way to weather out of the Solent. Their class, IRC 2, was the last to start and faced the most challenging winds and waves. The hard beat will go on for a while, but a large high pressure zone is moving north and may produce lighter winds in the days to come. A couple of notes – there are about 50 boats in Jazz’s class, including about 10 First 40s. Here is video of the IRC Class 2 start, beginning with about a minute to go before the gun goes off.
A couple more notes – If you want to track the race, the link is https://www.rolexfastnetrace.com/en/2021-tracking-player. My friends at 48 North have a nice piece on the Jazz team. There are lots of battles on the course, with several multihull classes going at it, IMOCA foiling 60s and Class 40s. Around one quarter of the fleet is sailing doublehanded. This is the first time the race will finish in Cherbourg, France, and apparently there is no small amount of trickiness right until the end.
If any of you have further insights, please send them to me. I’ll be covering my friend Brad Baker and the Jazz team closely.
We did get .01 inches of rain last night so our rainless spell is over but it did next to nothing to alleviate the drought problem. We may get more rain tomorrow as another front will reach the area and then linger into Sunday. So cooler this weekend with next week getting progressively warmer like the 90s by the end of the week and certainly no more rain for a while.
We still have our weak Pacific High slightly out position at 38N 154W which is allowing a series of low-pressure systems to drag across the top of the high and into the PacNw, BC, and SE Alaska. The 48-hour Surface Forecast Chart is very interesting with nine low-pressure systems including three Post-Tropical Cyclones, two Tropical Storms in the western Pacific, and two more areas off of Central America that could develop into tropical storms. While they are not a threat to any landmasses, they are making the trip back from Hawaii for the TransPac racers a fast one. The boats heading back to the Pacific NW may get quite a push from Post Tropical Cyclone Nida with SW winds of over 40-knots. The storm is currently at 40N 175E but moving in an ENE direction. Nida is projected to be about 550-600 miles north of the boats on the 9th of August.
August 6 500 MB
August 6 Surface Analysis
August 7 Surface Forecast
August 8 500 MB
August 8 Surface Forecast
August 9 Surface Forecast
The Sat Pic for today clearly shows the smoke from the fires down south still being pushed to the east but starting to accumulate in the Treasure Valley of Idaho. Bummer for our friends in Boise.
The weather this weekend will be cloudy but still pleasant. Saturday will see light conditions in the Straits until late afternoon when a onshore westerly could bring gale conditions to the central and eastern Straits. Saturday morning the most wind will be in the central and north Sound with 15-20-knots of southerly.
Sunday will see light conditions in the Sound with a continuing westerly in the Straits building in the afternoon.
Stay safe, use the sunblock, and enjoy the weekend!
So it wasn’t an overall victory by a PNW boat this time around, but safe fun was had! Here are a couple of videos, the first by the Pac 50 Callisto gang, and the second by the Zvi gang. The Callisto video, below, was submitted to the TransPac committee for consideration for the 2021 Burla Media Trophy. Thanks, Jason, for the video.
Zvi may have been waterlined by the three longer boats in her class, but a safe finish is always cause for celebration. Thanks, Nigel, for the video and all the work you put in to make this happen.
Pssst . . . Hawaii races are a big, fun deal. Start thinking and preparing now for Pacific Cup, Vic-Maui and yes, the TransPac in a couple of years.
As you can probably tell, not much has changed over the past week. We are going to see high temps near 90°F with lows near 60°F. Once again, winds to be light until your afternoon thermal northerly fills down the Sound. The good news is that maybe on Thursday and into next weekend we may get a dash of precip. The bad news is that whatever precip there is won’t make it over the Cascades, and folks on the other side of the mountains have already had enough of this. The continuing good news for the Salish Sea is that with the ongoing scenario of high pressure offshore and lower pressure inland, this will continue to send the smoke from all the fires streaming off to the east. Take a look at the Sat Pic for today, you can just see the low-pressure system offshore with its attached frontal system and our coastal buffer zone is still very much in play so this system will weaken as it gets closer. If the chance of precip gets above 30% I’ll be surprised.
July 30 500 MB
July 30 Surface Analysis
July 31 Surface Forecast
August 1 500 MB
August 1 Surface Forecast
August 2 Surface Forecast
August 3 500 MB
August 3 Surface Forecast
On the weather charts for today, the features of note include our Pacific High which has weakened from 1035MB last to 1025Mb today and now has a north-south orientation from 54N to 38N along a line at 153W. Between this weak high is this approaching weak low (1012MB)at 48N 142W with its cold front which, as I said, will weaken as it slowly comes onshore.
The PacNW teams getting ready to sail back from Hawaii could be in for a relatively quick crossing as the Pacific High is showing a tendency to strengthen and round up at 40N and 145W. This will mean lighter trades leaving the Islands and some very nice running conditions aiming them right towards home once they get to about 30N.
The other feature of note is in the current 500MB chart which shows the upper-level, cut-off low-pressure system off of Vancouver Island at about 48N and 143W. If this were to drift to the south and to the east this could bring smoke into the Pacific NW. Current models show this drifting back to the north. This just means that we will want to watch how this drifts. The other feature of interest is on the 96hr 500MB chart as the jet stream is in a huge oscillation coming down from the north at about 180W. This could form yet another upper-level, cut-off low-pressure system. Very unusual.
Enjoy the weekend, stay safe and use lots of sunblock.
So as Bruce Hedrick noted, the TransPac is now officially in the finishing stages with Pyewacket winning the Barn Door as expected. Turns out those Volvo 70s are monsters in just about any race. Especially when they’re “turboed.”
Zvi, Sonic, Riva and our PNW adopted Spindrift all look to be finishing shortly.
Callisto
I’ll add to that list in the form of Callisto, the TP 52 that is second in Division 3 behind Warrior Won. Callisto is crewed by many PNW sailors including Jason Andrews and Shawn Dougherty. Remember that Hamachi team from 2019 – well, they shot up more of a rooster tail this time. The skipper, Jim Murray, is a Seattle Yacht Club member. They sailed a strong race, finishing second on the water (3rd on corrected time) in the TP52 class. She finished ahead of the entire Division 2, even the Kernan 68 Peligroso.
Callisto Crew
Andrews shared some updates from along the course:
Mon 6:36 PM New update-soft sails are up as of 3pm. 1650 nm to Hawaii
Tue 10:23 PM Update from Callisto: made our first gybes – stepped south for more pressure. Fast boat with all ten crew driving. Done w frozen food – freeze dried here to the finish. Fix ed our water-maker issue but now have a head issue. Just crossed Compadres stern by 1/4 mile in open ocean.
Wed 1:19 PM New update: We are more than half way!! 1055 nm to go. working south and west through light patches and then strong breeze. Had many close crossings with other boa ts and a freighter overnight. Top boat speed: Jason Andrews and Steve Orlebeck are tied at 24.9 kts. Top wind speed was north of 27 kts. Boat is very wet inside and out and really starting to smell. Head is permanently non operational.
Update received at 12:38: just about 500 nm to finish. been crazy busy w gybes and sail chan ges- some planned and others unplanned. we are four on and four of f but get woken mid off watch for these events so haven’t slept mor e than 90 min in two or three days. in trades now w 18-25 kts and occasional big seas. stuffed bow several times and exploded kites and ripped front pulpi ts off. lots of excitement… sending it home to Hawaii!
Friday, July 23 2021, 11:05 AM Update: as promised sent it overnight from the right hand corner of the course. beautiful run under full moon in 15-25 with gusts to near 30. we lost our only A2.5 and our new A2 yesterday so are ripping along w A4 (all we have left is old A2 and A1.5). under 300 miles to go and should hit the finish line tomo rrow morning. the boat is a 100 degree sauna and we bail about five gallons of water out of it ever two squally conditions will make for another exciting day squally conditions will make for another exciting day incredibly wet w water constantly over the boat
The Early Wrap
There are certainly many tales to be told from this TransPac, as usual. But the most dramatic were at the start and finish of the race. Twelve (12!) minutes into the race, Denali‘s mast broke. It was a compression break, a the mast stayed up, but that was the end of their race. And just 30 miles from the finish, the J/V 72 Lucky broke her rudder. She was unable to continue, dropped out of the race and arranged for a tow to Hawaii. As far as our local heroes go, Zvi found that waterline still matters and the bigger boats in her section legged away. Mark Omilian’s TP Sonic is still finishing, 6th in the TP class. The J/125 Riva from Portland appears to be second in division 7. Andy Schwenk’s Express 37 Spindrift V is also still on the water but looks very good for second in Division 8. The Division 8 Farr 57 Ho’okolohe flew down the course after a multi-day head start and finished second on the water to Pyewacket.
Here’s Zvi‘s video from the start:
There are many more tales to tell, and photos to show. I’ll get them to you when I get them.
As you can probably tell, not much has changed over the past week. If you like the high temp to be around 80°F and the low to be around 55°-60° F, winds to be light until your afternoon thermal northerly fills down the Sound, and no rain in sight, that’s what is coming for the next week. The bad news is the no rain part as this will increase the fire danger and folks on the other side of the mountains have already had enough of this. The good news for the Salish Sea is that with the ongoing scenario of high pressure offshore and lower pressure inland, this will continue to send the smoke from all the fires streaming off to the east. Take a look at the Sat Pic for today, it is very easy to see where with the fires are and those are not getting smaller very quickly.
July 23 500 MB
July 23 Surface Analysis
July 24 Surface Forecast
July 25 500 MB
July 25 Suface Forecast
July 27 500 MB
July 27 Surface Forecast
Our NW contingent in TransPac are doing fairly well. Andy Schwenk on the Express 37 Spindrift V will probably end up 2nd in Div 8. The team from Portland on the J-121 Riva should take 2nd in Division 7. Sonic in the TP 52 Class is currently in 6th place but may move up one place as they get closer to Hawaii, They are in a really tough class with a bunch of newer boats that are being very well sailed. Zvi has the misfortune of being the small boat in class in a waterline race to Hawaii. When the breeze went light they moved up 2nd but as the breeze has built, they have dropped back to 4th. It has been a remarkably fast race with wind all along the rhumbline allowing the boats to sail the short course. I’m sure there will be plenty of gear failure stories when this one is over.
July 23
On the weather charts for today the features of note include our Pacific High which is still weak (1034MB)and still flattened along a line from 35N to 40N extending from 135W to 175W. This is allowing the weak (1010Mb to 1012MB) low-pressure systems to come over the top of the high and continue to keep it flattened. It will also tend to keep the Pacific High centered well to the west of where it normally would live. This will provide challenges for the teams sailing back from Hawaii.
The other feature of note is in the 96HR 500MB Chart as an upper level cut-off low pressure system will develop off of SE Alasaka at about 55N and 145W. If this were to drift to the south and to the east this could bring smoke into the Pacific NW. This just means that we will want to watch how this drifts.
Enjoy the weekend, stay safe and use lots of sunblock.
Good luck to all the boats from the PacNW who competing in the 2021 TransPac. It’s going to be very interesting and very much fun to follow. The first group started on Tuesday and they had some slow sailing for the first day and a half. This group includes Andy Schwenk and his crew on the Express 37 Spindrift V. Today is the second start and that includes the J-121 Riva out of Portland YC skippered by Scott Campbell. Tomorrow the big guns get rolling and that group includes the TP-52 Sonic skippered by Marek Omilian and the RP-55 Zvi (ex-Crossfire) skippered by Alan Lubner. They all should have a great sail.
This could just about be a cut and paste forecast this weekend as not much has changed. We are very lucky to be in the PacNW with relatively mild temps however don’t let this fool you, it is still going to be a brutal summer. The snowpack is seriously depleted and there is no rain in the forecast for the foreseeable future. Our West Coast neighbors in Oregon and California are already experiencing extreme drought conditions and it is only going to get worse. This will mean more wildfires and it’s also entirely possible that we’ll have even more days of excessive heating,
July 16 500 MB
July 16 Surface Analysis
July 17 Surface Forecast
July 18 500 MB
July 18 Surface Forecast
July 19 Surface Forecast
July 20 500 MB
July 20 Surface Forecast
Our Pacific High has still not set up in what we would call a normal position nor is it at a normal shape or strength. This is going to keep our weather very much the same for the foreseeable future and make for a very interesting TransPac. Currently, the Pacific High is flattened along a line at about 40°N from about 140°W-170°W and is only at 1032MB where it would normally be round in shape, centered near 45°N and 145°W and be 1035 to 1040MB. The other feature of note today is the 500MB charts which show only a small piece of the jet stream because it is so far north. There is a small meander that shows up at the 48-hour forecast however that becomes an upper-level, cut-off low-pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska. The good news is that this will help keep the smoke from the Canadian fires headed to the east. The current haze we are seeing is upper-level smoke from wildfires in Siberia. Today’s Sat Pic shows the smoke from fires in California, Southern Oregon, and SW Washington all being pushed to the east.
The surface forecast charts for the 17th show the Pacific High starting to become round but also weakening, shifting to the west and the south. This is caused by a weak low-pressure system (1017MB) moving to the east at about 45°N. The other feature of note is off the chart to the south and that is the formation of a Cat 2 Hurricane Felicia which now has sustained winds of 100-knots and gusts to 120-knots. There is also potential for a second hurricane to form just in back of Felicia. The good news is that Felicia will stay on a due westerly course at about 15°N and will run into cooler water and weaken. The next storm could be larger and move on a more northerly path which could take it to Hawaii but probably only as a tropical storm.
It’s going to be another beautiful weekend to be on the water especially if you have a powerboat. With high pressure offshore and low pressure inland this will maintain an onshore flow at least well into next week. As usual, the most wind will be in the afternoons in the Central and Eastern Straits. A thermal northerly will fill down the Sound in the afternoons however the rest of the time it will be light. The timing for the northerly filling down will be dependent upon how soon the clouds burn off and the land can start heating.
Be safe, use tons of sunblock, and enjoy the weekend.
It’s been tempting to follow all of the preparation of Zvi for this year’s Transpac. The race from LA to Honolulu is already underway for several classes, and on Saturday the “really” fast boat in divisions 1-4 are starting.
If you want to follow this race, the Transpac website is great as is the tracking (though it’s delayed 4 hours)
Many on Puget Sound will recognize the Reichel Pugh 55, it spent years here as Crossfire. Earlier this year, Alan Lubner bought the boat with the purpose in mind of doing the Hawaii races. Some crew carried over from the Crossfire days, including Nigel Barron. Nigel, sales and marketing manager for CSR Marine, managed an extensive refit and tuneup to make Zvi (gazelle in Hebrew) competitive in the ultra competitive fleet.
And Nigel’s famous:
Preparation in included a 230 mile offshore passage out the Strait of Juan de Fuca and back to qualify for the race. Turns out their choice of time gave them an all-night beat with a J4 jib and reefed main. Quite a way to clear the cobwebs.
One of my fellow brokers at Swiftsure Yachts, Ken Monaghan, was not only involved in the sale of the boat, but helped deliver it down the coast for this race. And he had the honor of recording the high speed – 26 knots – as Zvi flew down the coast under jib and small delivery main. See here:
So, while SOME of us WISH we were flying downwind to Hawaii, we CAN follow along. Zvi is the lowest rated boat in Class 2. Check out the Transpac page. It will be interesting to watch how she fares against the other three boats in her class, all significantly longer.
Of course Zvi isn’t the only PNW boat in the race. There’s Mark Omilian’s TP 52 Sonic, which will also be starting on Saturday. And while Andy Schwenk no longer calls the PNW home, we’ll be rooting for him in the Express 37 Spindrift V. They’ve started and he’s doing very well, thank you very much.
Please let me know of boats or sailors I’m missing as I try to cover things over the next week and a half.
Yet another beautiful week for weather in the PacNW. The only problem will be that this is still relatively early in the summer and with the excessive heat last week, everything is already at an August level of dryness. This will mean more wildfires and it’s also entirely possible that we’ll have even more days of excessive heating, We are also at 24 days without rain and there is no end in sight for that trend. Even though we did have a very heavy mist on the Straits early Wednesday morning, not enough to show on the rain gauge but I did have to turn on the wipers to clear the windshield.
Our Pacific High has still not set up in what we would call a normal position nor is it at a normal shape or strength. This is going to keep our weather very much the same for the foreseeable future and make for a very interesting TransPac. Currently, the Pacific High is flattened along a line at about 40°N from about 130°W-175°E and is only at 1029 to 1031MB where it would normally be round in shape, centered near 45°N and 145°W and be 1035 to 1040MB. The other feature of note today are the 500MB charts which show only a small piece of the jet stream because it is so far north. There is a small meander that shows up at the 48-hour forecast however that becomes an upper-level, cut-off low-pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska.
July 9 500 MB
July 9 Surface Analysis
July 10 Surface Forecast
July 11 500 MB
July 11 Surface Forecast
July 12 Surface Forecast
July 13 500 MB
July 13 Surface Forecast
It’s going to be another beautiful weekend to be on the water especially if you have a powerboat. With high pressure offshore and low pressure inland this will maintain an onshore flow at least well into next week. It will also keep the smoke from the Canadian fires headed to the east. As usual, the most wind will be in the afternoons in the Central and Eastern Straits. A thermal northerly will fill down the Sound in the afternoons however the rest of the time it will be light.
One of the reasons we like the Three Buoy Fiasco is that you only have three marks and you can take them in any order. You can also start either direction and since it’s a staggered start with handicaps applied you can find some interesting starting situations. The question is always which way to go first. This year there is no clear answer so you will want to note current conditions before you leave the house and then once you get out on the course. The current models show there may be a residual southerly in the central Sound in the morning with a dead zone north of Shilshole. Combine this with the tidal currents and if there is wind to the south and no wind to the north, you’re going south first. Plus you get some help from the flood tide.
Tidal Currents West Point
0848 Slack
1442 Max Flood 1.15knts
1748 Slack
Once you get around the south mark it will be a close reach that turns into a beat as the wind goes around to the NW around noon to 1400 hrs.
Regardless, it will be fun! Be safe, use the sunblock, and have a great time.
