sailish.com

I don’t know about you but we’ve certainly had enough of this freezing, cold weather. The good news is that the end is in sight starting Saturday with the temperature remaining above freezing for all of next week. We are going to have one more very cold evening tonight with another blast of Fraser River outflow. As a warm front comes into the area tomorrow morning, temps will finally rise above freezing.

Today’s surface analysis chart shows a large area of high-pressure (1033MB) in the mid-Pacific with another area of high pressure (1026MB) over southern British Columbia. Between these two highs is a stalled occluded front which will slowly move over us tomorrow. By tomorrow the inland high will strengthen to 1036MB while the offshore high will weaken to 1027MB. This also signals a change in the jet stream as it changes from a meridional flow to a more zonal flow. Today the jet stream is coming ashore near Ensenada, over the next few days it will move to the north and by the 4^th of January, it will be coming ashore in Southern Oregon. This is what will keep the temps above freezing and allow more storm systems to come into the Pacific Northwest.

Today’s satellite pic is amazingly clear especially when you realize that the white you are seeing over land is actually snow on the ground. Note how Lake Tahoe stands out.

We will have breeze over the weekend as the Fraser outflow brings us North to NE winds of 15-20 knots. As the next front approaches, the winds will shift to a pre-frontal SE and build to 20-25 knots with 25-35 knots a possibility on Sunday. Once again probably a good time to check the boat and those mooring lines and fenders.

Have a Happy and Safe New Year!

Lots of very interesting stuff in the weather charts, sat pic and Doppler radar. However, if you want some indication of just how cold it’s going to get just look at the 72 hour surface forecast chart from yesterday. The ice accretion line runs from near Yakutat, Alaska down the coast to halfway down the outside of Vancouver Island. This means the ocean (saltwater) spray will freeze when it hits your vessel. That is COLD!

The other interesting charts from today are the surface analysis, sat pic, and Doppler radar images. They all show the low centered just off our coast which will move onshore this afternoon bringing small craft advisories and gale warnings to our waters. This, in turn, will facilitate the arrival of an arctic front late Saturday and into Sunday brought in by a strong outflow from the Fraser River Valley. The 48 hour surface forecast chart shows a 42MB difference between the low over our area and the high in BC, note the tight spacing of the millibars over this area which will bring gale force northeasterlies to the Bellingham, the San Juan Islands, and the eastern Strait of JdF.  

This will also be reinforced by the jet stream being in a very strong meridional flow configuration. The main reason for this is an unusually strong mid-Pacific high-pressure system centered south of Kodiac and west of the mouth of the Columbia River. Combined with low pressure over our area, the jet stream is sandwiched between these two pressure systems which not only show up on the surface charts but also on the 500MB charts as well. This will keep a succession of frontal systems marching into California with the jet stream coming ashore near the California- Mexico Border.

So just how cold will it get? It’s possible that the high temperature from Sunday through Wednesday will never get above freezing and the low temperature could be down in the 15-16 degree F range. The coldest temps we’ve seen in a long time. Combined with the possibility of 4+” of snow in the lowlands starting Saturday night and continuing into Sunday we could be in for some very tough sledding. (Couldn’t help myself!)

I also got some questions about how this will affect boats moored in saltwater. The boats in freshwater definitely will need heat and make sure to leave the locker doors and floorboards over thru-hulls open so the heat can circulate. Interestingly enough the same will apply to boats moored in saltwater especially in areas like Shilshole and Elliott Bay. The reason is that with all the rain we’ve had, the freshwater will flow into these areas and being less dense than saltwater, will stay on top of the saltwater and potentially freeze especially if the wind is light. Regardless, it’s just a good excuse to go down and carefully check the boat over.

So have a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!  

The wild weather just keeps getting wilder with no end in the immediate crystal ball. At least in the Pacific NW, we’ve only had some breeze, not out of the ordinary, and the wettest fall on record. Year to date we are at over 6” ahead for the year but just about an inch behind for December. Don’t worry there’s more coming this weekend and the folks in California will be getting more rain and more snow in the Sierra Nevada’s.  We won’t even begin to talk about what’s happening in the rest of the country. Oh, and let’s not forget the powerful late-season Typhoon Rai slamming into the Philippines.

Today’s surface analysis chart shows a series of low-pressure systems converging on the West Coast with a very strong high-pressure system (1045MB by the 19^th) in the mid-Pacific. All of the low-pressure systems have various frontal systems attached to them extending from the Gulf of Alaska to Hawaii. These are reinforced by a strong meridional flow in the jet stream, see the 500MB chart for the 19^th of Dec. This will continue to bring moisture-laden air ashore all along the West Coast.

The next active frontal system will move ashore tonight and through the area on Saturday bringing a strong SE breeze to the coast, the east end of the Strait of JdF,  the San Juan Islands, and Bellingham Bay. The Doppler Radar today clearly shows the rain shield approaching the Coast. The coast could see a breeze to 35-40 knots while the other areas named above could see 40-50 knots of SEasterly. The good news is that because of the jet stream these are fast-moving systems with the post-frontal SW showing up at around 0600 hrs Saturday morning on the coast. This breeze will work its way down the Straits by mid-morning Saturday with gale-force westerlies in the Straits to the east of Race Rocks, and 20-25-knot south-westerlies in the Islands and Bellingham Bay. These will hold until early evening Saturday after which the gradient will ease over the Salish Sea.

By Sunday morning flow over the Islands, Bellingham Bay and the north end of Admiralty Inlet will be east to northeasterly as a strong Fraser outflow develops.  By mid-morning Sunday winds could reach 25-35 knots in the northern part of the San Juans and Bellingham Bay. Sunday afternoon this flow will extend across the Straits and down the Sound with northerlies of 15-25 knots. This will last into Monday morning before that gradient will begin to ease.

So while you may have the boat set up for strong southerlies, Saturday might be a good day to check those lines and set some up in anticipation of northerlies.

Then finally on Tuesday, we can celebrate the Winter Solstice after which the days will slowly become longer and winter will have officially begun. The Solstice officially happens at 0759 hrs PST on Tuesday morning. We will be celebrating later in the afternoon.

Have a great weekend. 

Sorry to be late with this however we’ve been watching this system as it comes onshore and it will be the strongest system we’ve had so far this winter. Good for plenty of snow in the mountains however the breeze along the coast, the central Sound, and the north part of the Salish Sea will be substantial. We already have 40-knots from the SSW at Destruction Island and 35 from SSW at West Pt. Hope you’ve got the extra mooring lines and fenders rigged!

The surface analysis chart and the sat pic show this system getting wound up and coming right into the Pac NW. The cold front attached to this system extends well out into the Pacific and with the 500MB chart we are in for a continuing onslaught of wind and rain. The 48 hour surface forecast chart also shows the ice accretion line extending south to 52N and with the jet stream aiming south of us we are also in for cooler conditions as well.

Have a great weekend but stay safe.

We are well ahead for rain this month with 7.5” in the gauge already which is just about the total for the entire month, and there’s more coming, just not this weekend.

As you can see from the Sat Pic, there is already clearing in the Straits and high pressure is starting to build over the entire Pacific Northwest. So while it should be a beautiful weekend, there won’t be much wind over the inland waters. The Gig Harbor LeMans racers had better be finished by 1300 hours since the wind is going to go from light to mostly non-existent. There will also be patches of light and variable over most of the Salish Sea.

Looking at the surface charts you will see a fairly large high-pressure system (1031MB) off the central Oregon coast today and then a lobe of that system will develop over the Pacific Northwest tomorrow resulting in no pressure gradient and therefore little to no wind.

The 24-hour surface forecast chart shows the high strengthening to 1033MB and this will help to send the next system to the north of us. The interesting feature on this chart is the surface low south of Kodiak (981MB) which will deepen to 978 MB as it crosses the Gulf of Alaska and approaches the northern part of the SE Alaskan coast. Not only is there a fair amount of wind with this system (45-55 knots) note the heavy fog! How much fun can you have in high winds, big seas, and thick fog, I don’t care how big the ship is that you’re on.

Then we go out to the 48-hr surface forecast chart which is even more interesting as it shows a developing low-pressure system (976MB) expected to deepen to 952MB over the next 24 hours, a real-world example of bombogenesis!  This chart also shows a developing low-pressure system (1007MB) off our coast which will bring a series of cold fronts into the West Coast early next week. More rain and mountain snow for the Cascades and Sierra Nevadas as far south as LA. The jet stream will come ashore north of us by Sunday but then drop to the south of San Francisco by the 23^rd of Nov. This will also bring cooler temps into the Pacific NW.

Enjoy the weekend, and have a great Thanksgiving. 

An inch of rain here, an inch of rain there, it all adds up proving once again that November is the wettest month of the year and while it’s only the 5th of November we are already 2.33” of rain ahead for the month. Plus there is just a steady line of fronts headed our way bringing wind and more rain.

Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic show the front that went through earlier today along with nine other areas of low pressure. For the most part, they seem to follow the pattern we discussed last week with the low-pressure systems weakening and dissipating as they hit the coast. A weak ridge of high pressure builds behind the front and that tends to drive the next system to the NW, N, or NE. It’s only temporary as the zonal flow of the jet stream will continue to supply us with more systems bringing cooler temperatures, more rain, and more wind through much of next week. Also, note the 48-hour surface forecast chart which shows a 12 on the Roser Low Index Scale which is pretty high for this early in the year. It definitely is November.

It will be a great weekend for sailing especially in the Central Sound where both days should have consistent southerlies of 15-25 knots with some higher gusts, especially on Saturday afternoon.

If you’re not going out sailing it might just be a good idea to head on down to the marina and check those mooring lines and fenders not just on your boat but maybe your neighbors as well.

Next week we’ll have a delivery forecast on Wednesday for those heading up to Round the County and a Race Forecast on Friday. Could be a great one.

Enjoy the weekend!