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Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 24, 25, 26, and 27 May. Swiftsure! Plenty of wind for the start, not so much for the finish but there will be big tides!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs May 24, 2024May 24, 2024Swiftsure Race 0 Comment

It may have looked like it was going to be a light air race but now, at least for the start, there will be breeze. From the start at Clover Point to Race Rocks expect 20-25 knts of SW breeze, as you get closer to Race Rocks expect 25-30 knots and that will hold until about 10-15 miles past the Race where it will back off to 20-25 knots of westerly to WNW breeze. This will hold until about mid to late afternoon when the breeze will back to WSW and ease to 10-15 knts. The breeze will continue to ease to 5-15 knots as it backs to the SW from Slip Point out to Swiftsure Bank. From Slip Point in to the finish the breeze will stay out of the W at 10-15 with more wind near Race Rocks becoming lighter as you approach the finish. After midnight you would really like to finish before 0200 or at least be North of 48 15N and East of 124W as the breeze will ease significantly. Then there’s the tides…..

May 25th Race Passage

0735 Max Ebb 5.7 knts

1153 Slack

1440 Max Flood 5.3 knts

1856 Slack

2208 Max Ebb 3.5 knts

0135 Slack

0822 Max Ebb 5.9 knts

1232 Slack

1522 Max Flood 5.3 knts

The really rough part of the race will be for the bigger and faster boats that start early and ride the ebb to Race Passage. In the Race the ebb will meet the breezy westerly and it will be like sailing in the Waring Blender. In those seas and that much wind there will be gear failures. Just make sure everyone is wearing life jackets with harnesses and tethers before you leave the Inner Harbour.

The next challenge will be for the boats that haven’t made it back through Race Passage before about 0300 to 0530 hrs on Sunday morning.

What does the crystal ball say? For the Long Course, Mach 2 should round the Bank around 2000hrs and finish about 0500 hrs Sunday. For Cape Flattery Zvi should finish around 2245 hrs, the TP52’s about 2330 hrs. On the Clallam Bay course the J-35 should be in around 2315 hrs.

Good luck, be safe and have a fun race.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 17, 18, 19, and 20 May. Saturday not so good, Sunday better.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs May 17, 2024May 17, 2024 0 Comment

The big racing for this week started yesterday with the 48^th Pacific Northwest Offshore Race (formerly the Oregon Offshore) which goes from Ilwaco at the mouth of the Columbia River to Victoria, BC. The RP 55 Zvi was first to finish at 1100 hrs this morning with most of the fleet either in the Straits or close to Cape Flattery. It got a little lumpy yesterday with the breeze clocking from the West to the NNW making it a beat from about La Push to Cape Flattery. The 45’ catamaran Cheekee Monkee broke their bowsprit early yesterday but salvaged the parts and kept racing. They will be second to finish. Third to finish should be the Swan 42C Free Bowl of Soup. It will be a tight race for 4^th and 5^th to finish between the Farr 39 Tachyon and the J-120 Time Bandit. The as-always well-sailed Time Bandit should be the overall winner. It should also be noted that the Corinthian Yacht Club of Portland has also gotten away from PHRF and will now score the overall with only ORC-rated vessels. They also did a first for offshore racing, they set a virtual start line as well as a virtual finish line. Very Cool!

Our Pacific High is still trying to set up a little earlier than normal and as you will see in the 20 May 72 hr Surface Forecast Chart it has become a bit more round and strengthened to 1035MB. The Pacific Cup crowd is hoping that this will be solidly in place for their starts in mid-July. For this weekend, the high will be weaker at 1031MB and tomorrow a weak frontal system will drag over the area bringing some much-needed rain, there just won’t be much. This interaction between the high offshore and low-pressure inland will result in various amounts of onshore flow coming down the Strait of JdF. Surges of flow will sometimes make it down Admiralty Inlet and into the North and Central Sound. The best time for this will be mid-afternoon tomorrow.

The South Sound will find itself under the influence of onshore flow coming through the Chehalis Gap. Not a lot of wind but it will be West to WSW for Saturday.

The most consistent area for breeze will be the East end of the Strait of JdF which could see 20-30 knots of westerly Saturday. Sunday the breeze will fill late in the afternoon with the rest of the Sound being light and variable.

Next weekend will be Swiftsure and while I appreciate the inquiries, it is still a little too early for any kind of accurate forecast. That however doesn’t mean I can’t at least take a run at it. 😊. The problem will be the tides on Saturday with a max ebb of 5.7 knts at 0735hrs. Slack is at 1153, with a max flood of 5.3 knts at 1440 hrs. Next slack will be at 1856 hrs with the next ebb of 3.5 knts at 2127.

The breeze looks to be less than five knots for the 1000am start with a light westerly filling down the Strait of JdF by 1330-1430 hrs. Remember, it’s still early in the world of forecasting.

Enjoy the weekend, stay warm, stay dry, and stay safe.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14 May. Get ready for summer, it’s on its way! Perfect weekend coming up, if you’ll have wind will depend on where you are!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs May 10, 2024May 10, 2024Vashon Island Race 0 Comment

Our coolish spring is over and with near record temps today, you can expect more of the same (almost) for tomorrow and Mom’s Day. Cooling on Monday with the approach of a weakening front and maybe some very light rain. Speaking of rain, it’s only the 10^th of May and we are already over ½” below average. As we’ve been saying, expect a warm and dry summer.

Today’s surface chart, sat pic and 500MB analysis give us the reasons for our weather today. The 500MB chart shows the jet stream as far north as it has been since last fall with the jet stream coming ashore in SE Alaska. It also shows the Pacific High is beginning to intrude into the upper atmosphere. The surface analysis chart shows what was a weak high-pressure system off of our coast gradually gaining strength and starting to hold its own against the fronts coming out of the Gulf of Alaska. The heat over our area has also produced a thermally induced trough of low pressure that while currently over the coast will gradually drift inland over the weekend. The sat pic for today shows a crystal-clear day for the area, which should hold for the weekend. In addition to Mom’s Day, we will also experience the strongest (as in severe) geomagnetic storm we’ve had in 20 years. This means that with the clear sky we could have quite a visit from the Northern Lights. It will help if you’re in an area with low light pollution. This could be very cool.

About the wind, starting tomorrow morning the South Sound will once again be light. The San Juan Islands will have a nice NW breeze of 10-15 knots flowing down from the Strait of Georgia. The East end of the Strait of JdF will be light. The Central and North Sound will have a nice northerly of about 10 knots. By midday, this will remain pretty much the same except for the Central and North Sound where the northerly will build slightly over the day. For the Vashon Island Race, the question will be how long will it take for the northerly to fill down past Pt. Robinson and into the South Sound. It will eventually but it could be interesting getting around the South End of Vashon. The northerly should be solidly in place by mid to late afternoon, even in Colvos.

Enjoy the weekend but use sunblock early and often, you’ll need it!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for May 3, 4, 5, and 6. Sloop Race to the Straits.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs May 3, 2024May 3, 2024Race to the Straits 0 Comment

Our unsettled spring weather continues and the lack of agreement among the weather models is a good indication of just how unsettled things are in the weather sphere. Today’s sat pic gives us a great overview of what is coming for today into tomorrow and that mostly means rain. The wind side of this equation is more complicated because as this front comes onshore it will weaken and dissipate. There will be some post frontal westerly flow down the Strait of JdF however that won’t last past late afternoon or early evening tomorrow as another front will approach the coast on Sunday.

What we are fairly confident about is the tidal flow in Admiralty Inlet:

Saturday

0900 Slack

1200 Max Flood 2.17 knts

1524 Slack

1806 Max Ebb 1.64 knts

Sunday

0648 Max Ebb 2.69 knts

0942 Slack

1248 Max Flood 2.65 knts

1636 Slack

1906 Max Ebb 1.68 knts

For wind tomorrow, one model has the early starters setting kites. Three other models have everyone enjoying a light air beat at least to Marrowstone. Then there’s light air beating in the rain and a flood tide trying to get past Double Bluff. By about 1400 tomorrow a stronger westerly flow will come down the Straits and into Admiralty Inlet. This could bring 12-15 knots of wind to Port Townsend and maybe about halfway down Marrowstone. Near 1600 hrs as a stronger southerly flow comes north in the Central Sound, a convergent zone will develop in the North Sound and extend north to Double Bluff. By 1700 hrs expect a light and variable zone from Pt No Pt(PNP) to mid-Marrowstone. By 1800 hrs the southerly flow will extend from PNP to mid-Marrowstone.

For Sunday it looks like a light air beat in a southerly at least to PNP. From PNP south to the finish expect a southerly of 15-20 knots. Even more interesting will be the beating in a wind against tide situation, especially in the north Sound. We always hope for a two-way run on this race and most of the time we get a least one day of running. This year, unfortunately, it looks like a two-way beat, bummer. Oh well, at least the party in Pt Townsend will be great and then there’s always next year.

Have a great race, and be safe.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 26, 27, 28, 29, and 30 Apr. Smith Island Race plus plenty of other events around the Pac NW.

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs April 26, 2024April 26, 2024 0 Comment

Yesterday, in just one day we doubled our rainfall for the month. This helps, but we remain about 2” behind for the month and 3” behind for the year with no relief in sight. We also got a light dusting of snow above 3,000 ft but the freezing level will rise to around 5,000ft over the weekend and will start to affect our snowpack. It is not too soon to start preparing for what could be a very hot and very dry summer.

Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic show a pair of weak low-pressure systems straddling the Pacific NW with another low-pressure system and attached frontal system in the Gulf of Alaska that will slowly drift our way this coming week. For tomorrow another cold front will move through the area and bring some breeze to some areas in the Salish Sea. This is a complex scenario and the models are not in agreement especially since the cold front tomorrow will move into the area from the NE. That simply doesn’t happen very often.

For tomorrow the most consistent breeze will probably be in the Central and North Sound and Admiralty Inlet. Especially from Pt No Pt to Pt Townsend from 1300-2000hrs there could be a SSW breeze of 10-25 knots.

Then there are the tides in Admiralty Inlet. Note especially the minus 1.5’ tide in Port Townsend tomorrow at 1300hrs going to a high of 8.5’ at 2100hrs.

The best thing to do will be to start logging wind speed and direction as well as surface barometric pressures today so you can track the changes as they occur and try to establish a trend. Have fun!

So stay safe, try to stay dry and enjoy the weekend!

Free Sailing at the Center for Wooden Boats

Kurt Hoehne Community April 21, 2024April 21, 2024 0 Comment

The Center for Wooden Boats in Seattle has always had the mission of getting people on the water. Again this year , next Saturday, it is providing free boating on Lake Union. See below for details. Kudos to the CWB. KH

You are invited to The Center for Wooden Boats on Sunday April 28th from 10-4PM to where we will be holding our third annual Free Boating Day! At last year’s Free Boating Day we were able to provide 580 people with free boating experiences.

What To Expect:

Free Boat Rentals: Enjoy complimentary 1-hour rentals of all human-powered boats, including peapods, rowboats, and canoes.
Free Sailboat Checkouts: Sailors who have their sailing check out cards with us will take advantage of our free sailboat checkouts
Public Sail: Free Boating Day will be our first Public Sail of the year! We will provide skippered boat rides on historic wooden boats. Sign up is on a first-come, first-served basis, so be sure to head outside of the Wagner Education Center early to secure your spot. Public Sail happens the last Sunday of every month from April-October.
Youth and Family Activities: Keep the little ones entertained with a variety of free activities, including toy boat building, knot tying, woodshop demonstrations, and the chance to try a tool. Plus, Pond Boat demonstrations courtesy of the Pacific Northwest Model Yacht Club!
Museum Access: Explore the rich maritime history of the Pacific Northwest with free access to our museum, featuring our new BIPOC art showcase exhibit, Marine Mosaic!

Here’s the link!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 19, 20, 21, 22, and 23 Apr. Lots of sailing all over the Salish Sea this weekend!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs April 19, 2024April 19, 2024 0 Comment

It should be a pretty good weekend for racing with the usual caveat that that will depend upon where you’re sailing. The other big news is that in addition to a very active hurricane season in the Atlantic with some spillover to the Pacific, we had a spectacular volcanic eruption in Indonesia which was captured on satellite, and the State of Washington has finally declared a drought emergency for the State because of our meager snowpack and lack of spring rains. For April we’ve only had .4” of an inch of rain compared to an average on this date of 2.07”. For the year we’ve had 12.91” compared to an average of 15.78”. Combining this with the forecast of a hotter and drier than normal summer, and an increasing possibility of a La Niña event, this could make for a not-so-much fun season. This would go for not only the usual areas in the Cascades and Eastern Washington but also around the Olympic Mountains.

At least this weekend should be relatively pleasant with the best day being Saturday with a high near 70˚F and the rain holding off until around sunset. Sunday will be 12˚ to 15˚ degrees cooler with cloudy conditions.

What does this mean for wind? As I said, it will depend on where you’re sailing. The reason is apparent from the Sat Pics and the Surface Analysis and Forecast charts. We are having a beautiful day today however not far off the coast is the next frontal system. Typically, as these fronts approach the coast they tend to weaken and fall apart as they interact with the coastal buffer zone. This will happen this weekend however on Saturday there will be a tightening of the pressure gradient as the front comes onshore. Most areas will start with light air except in the Eastern Strait of JdF where on Saturday morning we’ll have a prefrontal SE breeze 15-25 knots.

In the Central Sound, we’ll have light air of 5 knots or less from the SSW until about 1300 hrs when the breeze will build to 5-8 knots from the SSW. By 1400 to 1500hrs the breeze will build to about 10 knots. By 1600 to 1700hrs the breeze will build to SW of 15 knots. By 1800 hrs it could be 15-20 knots of SW.

In the South Sound, you can expect about the same progression but with about 5 knots less breeze.

By 1800 hours in the Eastern Strait of JdF, a solid onshore flow will develop bringing gale warnings to the area for westerlies of 25-35 knots. Those conditions will start to ease by 2100-2200hrs. Don’t take that as a trend as there will continue to be pulses of strong westerlies coming down the Strait through the day on Sunday.

In the Central and South Sound conditions for Sunday will remain in the 5-10 knots of southerly at least until around noon when the westerly in the Straits will begin to try and fill down the Sound. Expect a northerly in the Central Sound of 10-15 knots by around 1400 hours. This will ease through the rest of the afternoon.

Enjoy the weekend just don’t expect the warm temps to last as the jet stream is staying south and becoming more zonal. This will keep the temps on the cool side for at least the next 10 days with very little measurable precip.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 12, 13, 14, 15, and 16 April. Sloop Tavern Blakley Rock Race, Plus plenty of sailing all over the Salish Sea and a perfect weekend for it!

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs, Community April 12, 2024April 12, 2024Blakely Rock Benefit Regatta, Sloop Tavern Yacht Club 0 Comment

Wind from the north, temps in the 60’s, flowers starting to bloom, all good signs. This weekend should be great. Then there’s Monday where the high temp will be almost 15˚F lower than Sunday. Still no real rain on the horizon and as of today, we are almost an inch behind for the month.

Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic provide a beautiful picture of what is going on in the Salish Sea. We’ve had the passage of a weak cold front this morning and behind this, a ridge of high pressure will start building over the area. This can already be seen by the strong northerly flow down the Strait of Georgia, through the San Juan Islands, and into Puget Sound. As with this classic situation, the best day for breeze is immediately after frontal passage. The best part is that while there may be some easing in the breeze tomorrow, there will be plenty to race with, just about everywhere. The only exception being Olympia which will remain light.

Today’s sat pic shows the clearing starting to develop over the area as well as that big low-pressure system off the coast of Oregon. It is also interesting to note on the 500MB charts that this low intrudes into the upper levels of the atmosphere. The jet stream remains to the south of this low and will drag this weakening low into California by Sunday/Monday. This is why we’ll have such a nice weekend.

The north wind course for the Blakely Rock Benefit Race can be challenging because of the proximity of the weather mark (Meadow Point) to the starting line. Particularly if there’s a flood tide. With the slower boats starting first sometimes there can be congestion at the mark. Luckily tides should not be much of an issue as a max ebb of less than half a knot will be around 1000 hrs, with the slack at around 1230 hrs. With a persistent northerly of 10-15 knots blowing overnight and then building to 15-20 knots by the time the race starts, the flood may start early by 15-25 minutes. Just watch the classes ahead to see if congestion develops at the mark.

On the run from Meadow Point to Blakely Rock the problem will be keeping your air clear as well as finding a passing lane to get around the slower boats. There may tend to be more breeze on the west side of the Sound.

Blakely Rock will be the place where most of the fleet will compress and finding clear air will be a problem. The challenge will be to stay in clear air and not having to tack too much. The overall goal will be to hold port tack and get across the Sound to Magnolia. There will be some flood at West Point so try to stay out of the current without running aground between Four Mile Rock and the West Point Lighthouse. On this leg expect the breeze to be in the 10-15 knot range from the north.

After West Point don’t tack to port immediately at the Point, instead hold starboard until you can just lay the entrance to the Ship Canal. This will allow you to avoid the flood current that accelerates along the north side of West Point. It will also allow to better judge your approach to the finish line.

The current projections for breeze have this being a fairly speedy race with the TP-52’s around in 1hr 50min, the SC-52 around in 2 hr 05 min, the J-105’s around in 2hr 27 min, the J-35’s around in 2hr 28 min, the Cal 40 around in 2 hr 42 min and the J-30 around in 2 hr and 58 min.

Have a great race, stay safe and have a good time.

Salish 200 Distance Race Now “Official”

Kurt Hoehne Racing April 10, 2024April 10, 2024Corinthian Yacht Club, Salish200 0 Comment

Many of you will remember that time in COVID when races were being cancelled and others trying to take root as alternatives? One of them, the Salish 200, has taken root with Corinthian Yacht Club of Seattle. The press release below explains the event. A couple of things to note – if you want to do half the course, sure thing! Also, double-handed boats will be scored in their own class in addition to overall. Sounds like fun to me. Watch for further information in an upcoming issue of 48 North.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

The Corinthian Yacht Club of Seattle (CYC) is excited to announce that it is adding a signature distance race to its 2024 racing calendar. CYC has agreed to become the Organizing Authority for the Salish 200, a 204-mile distance sailboat race starting in Port Townsend.

The Salish 200 began in 2020, during the height of the COVID pandemic when sailing as we knew it was put on hold. Local sailors Shawn Dougherty and Jason Andrews, of the J/125 Hamachi, cooked up the idea to host a low-key, fun, local adventure race. The idea was simple, two-100-mile courses around the Salish Sea that create a figure eight around the San Juan Islands and Vashon Island, do one or do both! But this wasn’t a “sanctioned event” – it was a seat-of-your-pants-affair where the racers were the race organizers and start committee, and everyone self-reported their finish time.

This race quickly gained popularity amongst the top Seattle-area teams and has now outgrown its roots as a “pick-up game of sailboat racing.” Now CYC is excited to bring the Salish 200 race to their calendar, where it will use its expertise and resources to host the race as an official event and hopefully as a new namesake in the Pacific Northwest racing scene.

Jason Andrews from Team Hamachi said: “We are super excited by this development and for what it will bring for PNW racing. Further, by being sanctioned, it will now count as a qualifying race towards larger offshore events such as Transpac or the PacCup.”

The Salish 200 race is scheduled for June 21^st – 23^rd. Boats start at 7pm on Friday June 21^st in Port Townsend and can either go North around San Juan County or South around Vashon as they make their figure eight for the 200-mile race. Boats finish in Port Townsend by 7pm time limit on Sunday June 23^rd.

Registration for the Salish 200 race will open May 1^st and is open to monohull and multihull boats with an ORC or PHRF rating.

A new CYC perpetual trophy that pays homage to the Coast Salish People of which the waters sailed and the event itself is named after, will be introduced for this race.

Visit www.salish200.com for more information about the race and for the links to register.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for Apr 5, 6, 7, and 8 Apr. CYC Small Boat Regatta, and South Sound McAllister Creek

Bruce Hedrick Bruce's Briefs April 5, 2024April 5, 2024 0 Comment

Overall, it looks like a decent weekend of sailing, especially in the south and central Sound. Yes, even wind in the South Sound for McAllister Creek.

We have a fairly strong Pacific High (1042MB) in the mid-Pacific with a weak trough of low pressure along the west coast. This will keep a persistent SW flow over the Salish Sea with some rain. It will also be on the cool side. Take a look at the upper level/500MB charts and you’ll notice the jet stream currently comes ashore in Mexico which is why the temps are relatively cool. Notice also that over the week, the jet stream will become more zonal and by Tuesday/Wednesday it will be coming ashore near Westport which will facilitate some warming. That means upper temps finally getting back into the 60s by Tuesday/Wednesday and holding into next weekend.

For the South Sound tomorrow it looks like a SW breeze of 6-10 knots over the race course until about 1530-1630hrs when from Johnson Point to Big Tykle Cove(BTC) the breeze will ease to 2-4 knots. South of BTC the breeze will remain at 4-6 knots to the finish with the puffs clocking from the SW to WSW and W.

For the Central Sound, the breeze will start at 15-20 knots from the SW and gradually ease through the day and back to the SSW. For Sunday expect a SW breeze of 8-14 knots which will ease slightly over the day. The models are not in agreement after about mid-afternoon as a weak onshore flow will develop and one model has a weak NW breeze coming down the Sound by 1500-1600hrs. Just one more thing to watch for on Sunday afternoon.

Tonight, drink a toast to Scott Rohrer, one of the greatest sailors I ever had the privilege to sail with, for, or against.

Have a great weekend!

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