Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 23, 24, 25, 26, April. SYC Protection Island Race

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 23, 24, 25, 26, April. SYC Protection Island Race

After a very nice stretch of record-setting beautiful weather, things will start changing this evening and continue through the weekend. This will mean rain for tomorrow but a not so rainy day on Sunday. The surface analysis chart shows a number of weak low-pressure systems along the West Coast however with slightly higher pressure offshore this will keep the onshore flow in place. As a weak frontal system moves onshore tonight and into tomorrow this will allow a weak trough of low pressure to persist over the area through the weekend. All of these factors contribute to the fact that the models are not in agreement about what will actually happen on the racecourse.

We do however know what will be happening with the tides which combined with what looks like a bit of light air will certainly make the racing interesting.

Tidal Currents in Admiralty Inlet off of Bush Point.

0706    Max Ebb         2.25 knots

1000    Slack

1254    Max Flood      2.33 knots

1624    Slack  

1906    Max ebb          1.95 knots

2148    Slack

Sunday

0048    Max Flood      2.51 knots

0430    Slack

0742    Max Ebb         2.69 knots

1036    Slack

1336    Max Flood      2.70 knots

The surface forecast chart for tomorrow shows very little pressure gradient over the Pacific NW however with seven low-pressure systems, five inland from the Canadian Border south to the Sea of Cortez and two off of our coast, this will keep a southerly breeze over the central Sound for tomorrow morning. As the front moves through and dissipates this will bring, shall we say, unsettled conditions to the racecourse. Plenty of wind to get started however as the fleet goes north the wind will ease as you get closer to Pt. No Pt. By midday, a weak offshore flow will develop in the Straits resulting in a SE flow in Admiralty Inlet. With the tide starting to flood about 1000hrs this will keep the fleet on the beach and having to deal with the dilemma of Skunk Bay where there will be less tide but less wind. By mid-afternoon, the north end of Admiralty Inlet will be light and this will extend out to Protection Island.  With max flood approaching three-knots at Pt. Wilson, this will make getting out to the Straits very interesting. Gradually, a weak onshore flow will develop in the Straits and slowly fill down Admiralty Inlet where eventually it will meet the southerly flow coming up the Central Sound. All the while, wind velocities will remain in the 5-9-knot range. This is going to keep navigators and tacticians on their toes trying to figure out where the next puff will come from. Once again the lighter boats with the taller rigs will do better in these conditions.

The current NAM model has the RP-55 around the course in about 15 hours finishing just after midnight, the TP-52’s around in 16 hours, the Beneteau 40.7 around in 19 hours, and the J-109 around in 19.5 hours, almost a sunrise finish.

On the short course, the J-105’s should be around in 8 hours finishing around 1800 hrs.

The other surface chart of interest is the 48hr surface forecast which sets a new record on the Roser Low Index Scale with 14 low pressure systems plotted, including the Post Tropical Cyclone Surigae making into the western Pacific. This will combine with another low-pressure system to produce a very strong low capable of hurricane-force winds in the western Pacific. We will definitely want to watch where this system goes especially since the 500MB charts show the flow becoming more meridional over the central Pacific.

Enjoy the weekend!  

Ed. Note: For all of us small boat sailors, PSSR small boats promises to be shifty as well.

Center Sound Series Wrap

Center Sound Series Wrap

Scatchet Head

The second and third races of CYC-Seattle’s Center Sound Series were both Puget Sound Specials, with quirky conditions Northwest Sailors (usually) take in stride. What was a little unusual was that the race committee adjusted the courses in both races so that instead of going all the way to Scatchet Head and Three Tree Point, racers sailed around the Sound never too far from Shilshole Bay.

The Scatchet Head Race was most notable for a parking lot that formed near Edmunds at one of the turning marks. We don’t have any photos, but here’s a video from Doug Frazer aboard the J/105 Corvo and an image of the melee at the north mark courtesy of Kwindoo.

When all was said and done, while there were several Did Not Competes, it appears everyone who started finished.

Three Tree Point

The race committee opted for not sending the fleet all the way to Three Tree Point, no doubt urged by Bruce Hedrick’s pre-race weather brief and suggestion. Bruce himself raced aboard Tahlequah, and here’s his report:

There was a lefty at about 1:30 before the start so the pin became favored so we took it. With that shift the boats astern were all into our dirt and one by one were forced to tack. Once everyone had tacked we dug a little deeper into breakwater and then tacked. We held that and it looked good until the breeze went back to the SW. Those who had tacked early also got into more wind so when they came back about 5 boats crossed us. We tacked into the beach just north of West Point and then tacked when we could just scrape over the sandbar at WP. What was weird was the tide was ebbing at WP instead of flooding as predicted. So the folks who were on port outside the buoy got slowed while we just decided to stay inside the buoy and stay on port. Most of the group that crossed us got past the Point and then tacked back to starboard to sail under Magnolia towards Four Mile Rock. One J-105 found the mud and parked up for a while. We held port and got a nice shift to the SW so we tacked and for a while we were aimed at Alki. Using  the HB compass it became apparent that the boats on the beach were in more anti-water and maybe less wind as we lifted out on them. The J-109’s went further out than we did and that didn’t seem to hurt them as they stayed ahead of us. Once we got headed down to Duwamish Head, we tacked and were laying the top mark.

We rounded in third behind the two J-109’s, did a starboard set and just started sailing our numbers and watching as the breeze continued to oscillate. In that breeze especially in the lighter spots we can sail deeper than the J-109’s at about the same speed. We did three gybes going across Elliott Bay holding the port gybe to sail inside the buoy at WP. We did one gybe just north of WP to stay away from Lodos who would have been a problem on starboard. With a sprit they have to sail hotter angles but with our shadow they couldn’t get past us so they finally slowed down and went astern of us. I think they also wanted to get back to the east to stay in touch with the other J-109 Eclipse who had gone well to the east but it looked to us like that hurt them and the other J-35. We waited until the breeze went back to the SSW and gybed for the mark.

We had a nice opening to get around the mark and just held port to force the bigger boats that were coming up on us to tack and leave us with a lane of clear air. This was good because both Lodos and Eclipse got caught up in traffic and this allowed us to extend. We tacked to starboard and held that until we were about ½ way to the finish. Both Lodos and Eclipse went back out to the west so we decided to be conservative and just keep us between them and the finish. We had about a 100 yd lead so we waited until we could tack back to starboard and then tacked directly in front of Lodos who waited a while and then did two tacks to clear their air. We gradually worked up underneath them again and put just a little more distance on them. We held starboard until we could lay the finish on port. When we crossed it was becoming apparent that the breeze was going away and as I drove home you could see that Elliot Bay had glassed off and when I got back to West Seattle, it was calm from Alki to the north end of Vashon. So again, a great call by the Race Committee.

That’s a wrap for Center Sound. Three good races, and it’s all starting to feel a little post-Covid normal. A windy Blakely Rock and challenging Scatchet Head and Three Tree Point races. Aaaaaah. Somehow, complaining that the conditions weren’t perfect doesn’t feel appropriate at this time. Many kudos to the race committee that had to overcome a faulty YCV transmission and two bad weather outlooks by thinking on their feet. Results are here. The usual suspects are atop the leader board with Sabrosa (Alex Simanis), Dark Star (Jonathan McKee) and Terramoto (Bill Weinstein) in the top three PHRF fleet spots. The ORC class, all TP 52s, was won by John Buchan’s Glory.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 26, 27, 28, and 29 Mar. CYC Three Tree Point Rac

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 26, 27, 28, and 29 Mar. CYC Three Tree Point Rac

Almost an inch of rain yesterday (at the airport) and as of today, we are 3.5” above normal and .75 inches ahead of last year which was abnormally moist. Just as long as we don’t get too much heat too fast, it’s fine. Plus the freezing level is going to be coming down significantly late Sunday and into Monday which will help preserve the snowpack. Don’t be surprised to see some snowflakes mixed with the rain.

Today’s surface analysis chart shows the remains of a weak low-pressure system right on top of the Pacific NW hence the cloud cover. There is also a respectable high offshore (1033Mb) which isn’t going to move very far and will help weaken the next front that is due to arrive late Sunday. When you compare the surface chart with the 500MB chart you’ll also see that this high extends well aloft. This is keeping the jet stream to the north before it dives to the south and comes ashore at the US/Mex Border and heads due east. This is the same formula that has resulted in the wild weather in the SE USA over the last 10 days.

Today’s satellite pic, while showing some clearing in the Straits of JdF, still has plenty of cloud cover over the rest of the area. This will continue through tomorrow, just don’t be fooled, be sure to put on plenty of sunblock before you leave the house.

While we have just about a perfect wind for the TTP Race today, the surface forecast chart shows that the pressure gradient will ease over the area tomorrow keeping the breeze in the 5-10-knot range for the start with less wind to the south and the breeze over the racecourse gradually easing over the day. Luckily for us, the Race Committee isn’t afraid to set an alternative course to take advantage of what wind is present. Might as well make it a clean sweep for the Center Sound Series.

Luckily for us, the tides won’t be an issue.

Tidal Current at West Point

0812      Slack

1336       Max Flood           .74 knts

1630       Slack

1806       Max Ebb               .43 knts

The current NAM model has the TP-52’s around the course in about 6.25 hours, the J-111’s around in 7 hours, and the J-35’s and J-109’s around in 8.5 hours.

By Sunday, another system will make its presence felt over the area as it brings rain and wind to the Salish Sea. It will have the effect of weakening the high currently off of our coast and moving it slightly to the south. What’s very interesting is the 1042MB high behind this front and the 974Mb low off to the NW of this high. Not a trivial low-pressure system. This will be fun to watch as we approach the end of the month.

Have a great weekend.

Blakely Rock Breeze, Delay

Blakely Rock Breeze, Delay

Corinthian Yacht Club’s Blakely Rock Race, the first race in the Center Sound Series, is certainly not the first race of the year. However, it always seems to force racers, and race committees, to officially shake out the cobwebs for the coming year. Saturday’s race was no exception.

The day started out breezier than expected, in the high teens and low 20s. It was certainly a wakeup call, and left a few skippers more comfortable knowing they’d gone over the rig prior to leaving the dock. A fleet of nearly 70 boats had signed up, and most were on hand at the designated start time of 10 am. Alas, the race committee was not. The venerable, much loved and sometimes repaired, red YC 5 had serious steering issues.

Here’s what I gleaned from CYC Fleet Race Captain Matt Wood’s comments on a Facebook thread:

“The hydraulic steering connector on YC5 sheered in half as the boat was leaving its temporary slip on K dock. We had our Whalers tow us to the dinghy dock to affect repairs. Many thanks to the team that came to our aid. After pulling the engine framing apart we recognized that we could not safely conduct a race on YC5. We continuously communicated on VHF 69 the status of the RC, flew AP and sounds as per RRS, and advised the fleet on VHF our intentions. Plan B was developed and implemented by using the Bullfrog, and our Whaler, to set up a start line using Meadow Point Buoy and a start pin. Starts were combined to facilitate speedy starts.

“First start was at 11.20 AM, 1 hour and 20 minutes after scheduled start time. Race course was amended, as per SI and RRS, to Blakely Rock and return, using S line as F Iine, as per SI and RRS.

“We have a plan to affect repairs with the intent to have YC5 in service for next Saturday. Failing that, there are alternative RC boat plans already in place.”

The following photos are just a sample of some great shots by Jan Anderson. See the rest here.

The amended course was shortened to Blakely Rock and return, which was just about enough distance for the TP 52s to stretch their legs in the big breeze. Planing boats ruled on the return from the Rock, The J/105s clearly enjoyed the big breeze, taking six of the top eight places with Creative winning fleet honors. Hooligan, a new J/111, was second overall and the J/125 Hamichi strutted her well-known downwind stuff to third overall. There is also a shorthanded class – though the boats are scored against their regular class and also against the other shorthanded boats. Jonathan McKee’s Dark Star won the shorthanded class while also placing third in Class 8. Results here.

Screenshot from the Kwindoo app.

Fittingly in the Age of Apps, Kwindoo is being used, and it gives an interesting and instructive replay of the race of those who’ve implemented it on their smart phone. On this day, like so many others app or no app, it paid to play West Point, take that port tack all the way across to the Bainbridge side and work your way to the Rocks. To access this replay, go to kwindoo.com, register and search for Corinthian Yacht Club of Seattle.

With the Center Sound Series well and truly under way, the cobwebs cleared out, it seems already like this will be a season to remember.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 5, 6, 7, & 8 March. CYC Blakely Rock Race

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 5, 6, 7, & 8 March. CYC Blakely Rock Race

Ed. Note – Bruce is going to give a chalk talk on the weather outlook for tomorrow’s Blakely Rock Race for CYC Seattle. See below for details.

As we said in November, it was going to be a wetter and cooler than normal winter and it has pretty much worked out that way. As of today, we are almost four inches of rainfall above average and even though last year was way above normal we are still .06 inches ahead of where we were a year ago. I bring this up because while we may have had some beautiful days this last week with above normal temps which got a lot of plants and trees starting to bloom, don’t expect more of the same this coming week.

Today’s satellite pic certainly tells the story and when you combine this with the Surface Analysis chart and 500Mb chart you can see why we are going to have a very interesting weekend. The satellite pic shows the low-pressure system with the attached cold front off of our coast as well as the next frontal system. It’s the area behind the cold front (the comma-shaped solid white clouds) with all those irregularly shaped, puffy white clouds that will make tomorrow interesting for Blakely Rock racers. This marks an area of cooler, unstable air which will keep the post-frontal conditions unsettled. Think of it as pulses of breeze that will be coming through the Chehalis Gap and up the Sound. In the morning, since the breeze offshore will be very southerly this will keep the breeze in the Central Sound southerly. As the breeze offshore becomes more southwesterly, this will bring more of a southwesterly component to the breeze in the Central Sound. While this may seem straightforward, the problem will be that there can be areas of lighter air as these pulses of breeze move up the Sound.

As we get towards the late afternoon/early evening tomorrow, the breeze offshore will become more of a pre-frontal southeasterly in anticipation of the arrival of the next front (visible in the sat pic). This will have the effect of easing the breeze in the Central Sound until early Sunday. It will be the coast that will experience the higher winds and seas. This is where it also becomes useful to compare the surface analysis chart to the 500Mb chart. The surface chart shows three low-pressure systems moving in an almost circular pattern in the Gulf of Alaska down to our coast. The 500MB chart shows two upper-level lows off of BC with the jet stream coming ashore just north of San Francisco. Over the next four days, these two upper-level lows will consolidate into one and not move however this will have the effect of driving the jet stream further south which will keep us in a wet and cool pattern for the week.

As far as Blakely Rock goes, this should be a great race. Challenging but fairly consistent wind conditions and not much tide, however, as always, the geography of the Sound will have a profound effect on the breeze since we have to sail back and forth across the Sound.

Tidal Current at West Point

0948      Slack

1136       Max Ebb               .3 knots

1324       Slack

2000       Max Flood           .79 knots

The keys for the Race will be to get a clean start and sail into breakwater or Magnolia Bluff avoiding the outfall from the Ship Canal. Current radar has bands of rain moving across the area which will have the effect of slightly increasing the velocity of the outfall as well as increasing the ebb in the area of West Point because of the outfall from the Duwamish. The combination of rain plus a steady southerly will extend the ebb by about 20-30 minutes at West Point. There will be a slight SE shift from Shilshole to West Point inside of a line from Meadow Point to the Lighthouse. Just be careful not to get in too close to the beach as there may be a significant drop in windspeed. You will probably get to West Point on port tack and you’ll just want to hold port and sail across the Sound. As you cross, you’ll be slowly knocked. Watch your windspeed as you get closer to Bainbridge and while you may get a significant knock you may also lose wind speed.  You’ll want to work up to Blakely Rock favoring long starboard tacks and short port tacks. As always, be careful working south along Wing Point, it sticks out further than you may think. Plan your approach to Blakely Rock as it may be difficult to keep your air clear as the fleet will tend to compress at the rock. Watch the boats ahead to see what kind of sets they are doing.

It usually pays to do a port pole set at the mark as the breeze should be from the SW. This will hold until you are near Tyee Shoal where you maybe lifted so gybe out and sail your angles as you run north. Generally speaking, you will want to stay near the rhumbline or slightly to the west of rhumb and, of course, keep your air clear and anticipate overtaking situations. Give the slower boats a break and pass well to windward or way to leeward.

As you pass West Point, start planning your rounding at the top mark, which will hopefully be in the correct location. As you pass the start/finish line, check to see if one end is favored. You’d like to be the inside boat at the mark however that may mean a port gybe approach as the wind will probably be around to the SSW by then.

Once you round the top mark, it will be a long starboard tack back to the finish. Again keeping your air clear but working to the east. You’ll also want to watch the boats behind you in case a  big shift comes in from the west. If the boats astern are being significantly lifted out over you, bite the bullet and tack back out to the west to get into the new wind. Just don’t go so far that you overstand the finish.

If the boats astern aren’t lifted, check the boats ahead to see if there’s a SE shift on the beach going up to Meadow Point, then plan your approach to the finish.

Today’s models have the TP 52’s around the course in just about four hours. The J-35’s are around in about 5.5 hours.

Tonight CYC Shilshole is hosting a chalk talk where I’ll discuss the race as well as what the models from late this afternoon are showing. ( Ed. Note, sign up here!)

Have a great weekend and a great race. 

Port Madison Yacht Club’s Jim Depue Memorial Race

Port Madison Yacht Club’s Jim Depue Memorial Race

It seems sailors are really ready to shake off the Covid blues and go racing. Port Madison YC’s Jim Depue Memorial race, which took the fleet across Puget Sound twice last Saturday, was a chance for Central Sound sailors to shake out the cobwebs that may have collected over winter. We are lucky enough to have a recap from winner Alex Simanis of Ballard sails (and his winning track), who sailed the Henderson 30 Sabrosa. And be sure to scroll down for Jan Anderson’s photos. Results here. And don’t forget to support Jan’s photography with the purchase of some of her shots! Here’s the link to her Jim Depue gallery. –KH

Alex’s Race

The Jim Depue race was a good one for sure!


The startline was set in a pretty big hole behind Pt Monroe, RC did a great job of AP and moving the line out to the breeze. A nice SE breeze filled in and maxed out about 15 knots true. For us on the Henderson 30 Sabrosa, we started near the committee boat and favored the Bainbridge side of the course for the 1st beat. There was a big 8 or 9-foot ebb that was running hard, and it really paid to try to stay out of it on the beat up to Eagle Harbor. Starboard tack had a very headed slant, and combined with the keel across the current, it made us eager to be on Port as much as possible. Two-thirds of the way up the beat we found 15 knots of true wind, and had to change down in jibs, at this point we were leading the fleet boat for boat. When we got the #2 Jib T-ed up to tack change, the soft shackle flogged off in the tack and we flailed around for a bit trying to deal with the big genoa halfway down, and the new genoa up but flogging. We lost some time here, and by then Peter Shorett, who was sailing his beautiful Farr 395 Ace got by us. Peter was sailing single handed with flying sails. He sailed a killer race. 

Once getting around the red nun at Eagle Harbor, it was a pretty straightforward drag race down to the Magnolia shore to the magic carpet ride down the beach in the Duwamish flush. The next leg down to Indianola, saw the breeze go fairly hard east. Some boats got caught too far towards Shilshole, and it was a painful port gybe in the east breeze coming back towards Indianola. We were lucky to be west when the shift happened, so we pretty much got headed to the mark, once around the PMYC mark just east of Indianola pier, we had a jib fetch to the finish with slightly cracked sheets to Point Monroe in the end of the easterly. 


Unfortunately, many boats saw wind from multiple directions after we finished, and it really spread out the corrected times. Overall, it was a beautiful dry day on the water, and as usual PMYC put on another fun and interesting event!


Note: Sabrosa is owned by Pete Sauer out in Montana. Since we sold Poke and Destroy and our new boat is in Port Townsend getting a bunch of work done, Pete has been gracious enough to lend us the boat to sail until it sells!

Photos by Jan Anderson

Halfway Duwamish Head

Halfway Duwamish Head

Once again, Bruce Hedrick called it well in advance. The break in the rain was nice, but unfortunately it was a break in the wind as well for the racers that braved the Duwamish Head race on Saturday.

I don’t have any from-the-water reports, but Bruce was watching from his house in West Seattle and gave regular updates of the fleet’s slow progress. There are a few things of note. Three TP 52s came out to play. Alex Simanis has picked up with the Henderson 30 Sabrosa where he left off with Poke and Destroy, and Iain Christenson’s GREEN Farr 36 Annapurna can be clearly seen from all over Puget Sound. It’s also worth noting that John Bailey sailed Sir Isaac in the single/doublehanded class. That’s a lot of sails for two people. (Ed. note, I’d mistakenly called Sabrosa by the name Selah earlier. Oops, sorry. Selah is the J/100 with the red chute owned by Tad Fairbank, and it won the single/doublehanded class.)

Here are the results.

Following are Jan Anderson’s pictures. The rest are here.

Winter Vashon, Duwamish Head

Winter Vashon, Duwamish Head

Winter Racing is on. We didn’t get any reports on Winter Vashon back in December, but we did get pix courtesy of Jan Anderson. Some of them are below and the rest are here. You can see the results here plus registration info for the remaining races.

These days any racing is great racing and the results seem to have lost their importance while we navigate Covid. That said, it was wonderful to see Smoke and Terremoto back on the race course. As Bruce Hedrick predicted, the race ended on a shortened course.

Tomorrow is the second race of the South Sound Series, the Duwamish head race. About 50 boats are signed up, and there are always some good stories coming from that race. Bruce will put his prognosticator’s hat on and put out a weather outlook later today. Hopefully there’s not quite as much wind as we’ve seen a few days ago (50-60 knots in places!)

I’d love to relay some of the stories that come from the Duwamish Head race. Just email me.

Seattle Freeze – er Frostbite – is IN

Seattle Freeze – er Frostbite – is IN

Seattle singlehanded sailing is booming. The Frostbite series, run by the Seattle Laser Fleet, now dubbed the Seattle Dinghy Fleet as it’s split between Lasers and RS Aeros (plus a few Optis share the course), has short courses, competitor-led race committees and some great competition. The ascendency of the RS Fleet has attracted both new sailors and highly experienced sailors looking for a new challenge.

Lasers, in turn, have become the boat of choice for many younger sailors, with the Radial and 4.7 rigs enabling smaller sailors to compete. Parents often attend the races in RIBs and Whalers, and act as shore crew for their kids.

Four Frostbite days have already been sailed, the Most recent being this past Sunday when it was blowing 20+ at West Point off Shilshole Bay Marina. For the last two Frostbites, it’s safe everyone went home tired and satisfied after some challenging conditions. Here’s a recap of the December 6 event from none other than Hanne Weaver, who has competed, and won, at the top levels of the Laser fleet:

Another fantastic day sailing on the Puget Sound. I was able to participate in the 3rd Frostbite series race. I was impressed by the number of sailors who came out.  The wind came from ESE about 5-12 knots with some good current pushing us back. While racing I would ask myself two questions: do I hug the shore and get away from the current or go toward the middle and get better wind? What I found that worked best for me was just tacking when the wind shifted. I knew I wanted to finish on the top right of the windward mark because there was always a right shift. I made sure I have a plan for each race before it even starts. 

   By mixing up how we start keeps me on my toes. Since we got in the way of the shipping channel, the race community wanted to race us back down to the Meadow Point buoy. This meant a downwind start; the goal is to have clean air. I have worked on my down winds for many years. What I look at while I go down wind is the wave speed, angle and how close they are together. This helps me determine when to pump and carve. 

   Once down at Meadow Point buoy, another race course was set up. Great wind, great weather and great sailors, what more can you ask for. It was wonderful to see new faces and old ones too. I cannot wait to get back out on the water and race against you all again. 

Following are some of John Beaver’s photos. The rest are here.

This past Sunday, the big breezes kept some people off the water, and chased others home early, but it was certainly great sailing. There’s nothing quite like sailing a lightweight singlehander in big winds.

Mark Ross submitted the following report:

Our appreciation to volunteer race committee Giancarlo Nucci and Andrew Loe for running Frostbite #4 races on Sunday, January 3, 2021. They did a superb job of clicking off the races in difficult mark-setting conditions. Approximately 15 Aeros, 8 Lasers a handful of Optis participated. What a great way to start off the new year.

Fantastic winter sailing conditions with warm temperature (upper 40’s), wind shifty (predominantly from the S and SSE), and wind strength hovering in the mid to upper teens and puffing into the mid 20’s. There were some good waves for planing downwind and also a lot of chop. It looked to me like quite a few boats went upside down at one time or another. When sailing by the lee downwind the waves were rolling into the leeward side. My death roll was a result of getting hit simultaneously by a hard gust and a nice rolling wave. Looking at the pictures provided by Giancarlo Nucci and John Beaver you’ll see some  awesome dark threatening clouds and others with blue sky–I don’t remember seeing any blue sky but the pictures don’t lie! And no rain.

The following photos are from Giancarlo Nucci. The rest are here.

The Frigid Digit Regatta is coming up January 23/4 (Seattle Dinghy Fleet and Corinthian YC-Seattle) and there are Frostbite events February 7 and 28th and March 14. Check out seattlelaserfleet.org for more information. To register for Frigid Digit, please go here: https://cycseattle.org/event-3801728/Registration.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 4, 5, 6, & 7 Dec. Winter Vashon!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 4, 5, 6, & 7 Dec. Winter Vashon!

Looks like a great turnout for Winter Vashon with a nice Double-Handed Division. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like the weather is going to cooperate.

We’ve had a spectacular week with pretty nice weather including a record high temperature. Today’s surface analysis chart shows the reason for the offshore flow we’ve had over the last couple of days with a fairly strong high-pressure system (1043mb) on the other side of the Cascades. This is an extension of the high-pressure system that brought Santa Ana winds and the Bond Fire to southern California. This high combined with a weak ridge of high pressure off the coast and the jet stream will drive the incoming storm systems to the north of us. Check out the satellite picture for today. The tail of the attached frontal system will drag over us tomorrow night with a stronger front coming in Monday night and into Tuesday morning.

The surface forecast charts for 48 hours, 6 Dec, gets even more interesting with the strongest low-pressure system this season showing up in the mid-Pacific. It’s round, it’s deep (942mb on Thursday) and it’s heading into SE Alaska. This system is larger than any of the hurricanes that came ashore in the US this year. Luckily, it will weaken as it gets closer to North America.

For Winter Vashon, tomorrow’s system will be just far enough to the north to not impact the racecourse. In fact, it should be sunny. It’s too bad we’re not racing in the eastern Strait of JdF where we’ll have 20-30 knots of SE breeze all day tomorrow. The gradient causing this strong SE in the Strait of JdF will ease the further south you go in Puget Sound. This will mean another light air Winter Vashon with the usual drag racing from hole to hole as you get swept north in the current in Colvos Passage. Luckily, the Race Committee has a history of shortening the course at the top end of the Island. While there may be slightly more wind when you get to the top end of the Island, as you go south, it will get lighter until about 0100 hrs Sunday morning when a 10-15 knot southerly should fill in and last until about 0900 hours when it will ease to 5-10 knots. That will last until mid-afternoon Sunday when the breeze will drop to 5 knots or less.

The South Sound just can’t buy a break, at least it won’t be raining and 34°F. Don’t forget the sunblock and it could be a little coolish as you power back to your home port so don’t forget a thermos full of the warming fluid of your choice.

Stay safe, stay healthy, and take care out there.