Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 17, 18, 19, and 20 July!

It may be a bit damp and gloomy over much of the Salish Sea right now, however, it won’t last. Even though I can barely see across the Sound, there are many pleasure boats out and cruising and getting ready for what may be a prolonged stretch of very nice weather.

Today’s satellite picture shows some clearing in the Strait of JdF as well as off the coast, so it will get nicer.

The surface analysis chart for today shows a reasonable high-pressure system (1032mb) off the coast with two weak low-pressure systems inland which will drive an onshore flow of breeze down the Strait of JdF through the weekend resulting in a small craft advisory for the Central and Eastern Strait. Nothing too unusual for this time of the year.

By tomorrow, the Pacific High will become more rounded and more stable bringing a strong northerly to northwesterly flow to the offshore waters. The two low-pressure systems inland will merge to form a weak low-pressure trough (1014mb).

Sunday will see the Pacific High drift towards the coast which will give the Pacific NW some beautiful weather and have the effect of driving storm systems in northern BC and SE Alaska.

The 72hr forecast chart shows a weak series of low-pressure systems coming across the Pacific with attached frontal systems which could slightly impact our weather by Wednesday and Thursday.

So enjoy the weekend, stay safe, and stay healthy.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 10,11,12, &13 July

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 10,11,12, &13 July

It is starting to look a little more like summer, until tomorrow night, when we’ll be visited by yet another weak frontal system. Today’s surface analysis chart shows the same problem we have had all summer. The Pacific High (1029mb) has yet to fully develop so it is easily pushed around by low-pressure systems with attached fronts coming across Northern Pacific. As long as it remains weak, as in less than 1035mb and remains elongated and not round, it will still be easily pushed around.

The races to Hawaii would have been mild, a little slow but made more interesting by Tropical Storm Cristina which formed this week and will probably become a full-fledged hurricane by tonight before it runs into cooler water and some upper-level shear which make it a post-tropical depression fairly quickly. It would have made life interesting as it is on a track to at least brush the Hawaiian Islands.

Since we have high-pressure offshore and low-pressure inland we will continue to have an onshore flow which, in the afternoons and early evenings, will bring stronger westerlies to the Central and Eastern Strait of JdF as well as the Northern part of Admiralty Inlet. As the front comes ashore tomorrow afternoon, it will bring southerlies (12-15 knots) to Central and South Sound however those will ease with frontal passage bringing light air for the rest of the weekend. Late Sunday afternoon the onshore flow could bring 10-12 knots of northerly to Central Sound.

It should still be a great weekend to get out on the water.

Be safe, stay healthy, and enjoy the weekend.  

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 3, 4, 5, 6, July. The Unofficial Start of Summer!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 3, 4, 5, 6, July. The Unofficial Start of Summer!

Finally! A weekend without rain. Well, it’s about time. If only it were a normal Holiday and we were all out celebrating on the water with friends and family. I did notice a fair amount of traffi8c out on the Sound this morning so some of you are getting out there which is great.

It will remain cloudy today as we still have a weak upper-level low in place over the Pac NW and a weak weather system moving through the area today. This system shows up nicely on the Langley Hill Doppler and the current direction of movement indicates that the San Juans might get some rain later this afternoon.

You can see from today’s chart this weak system is coming off of a 1011mb low off the north end of Vancouver Island. Further offshore we have our Pacific High that is still not quite stabilized however it is getting there. If it were a “normal” year we would have been starting the Vic-Maui Race or the Pacific Cup and conditions would have been very mild so a nice race just a bit on the slow side.  

As we progress through the weekend the weather will get better, however, the pressure gradient will remain weak so winds will remain light except in the Central and Eastern Strait of JdF. This will occur Saturday night, Sunday night, and again on Monday night where there could Small Craft Advisories when the wind could be 15-25 knots from the west.

Another interesting feature to watch is the development of a cut-off upper-level low on the 7th of July which will bring cloudy and cooler weather back into the NW. Not all bad as this will help keep our snowpack in place and keep the fire danger down, at least a little longer. Conditions are still dry on the other side of the Cascades so that will remain a problem.

Enjoy the weekend, be safe, watch the weather and above all else, stay healthy.        

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 26, 27, 28, 28, and 29 June. SALISH 200!

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 26, 27, 28, 28, and 29 June. SALISH 200!

The Salish 200 Race, which starts tonight at 1900hrs off of Pt. Hudson in Port Townsend(PT), is a very cool concept which we at Sailish think we will see more of as racing slowly comes back online. The course is pretty simple; start in PT go around the San Juan Islands(SJI) using the same marks as Round the County, then go around Vashon Island and finish back at PT.  You can start by going around the SJI first or by going around Vashon first and you can go either direction around the marks. This will be a navigators race and considering that the crew limit is five, the larger boats are going to be very busy.

Of course, the tides will be an issue as they always are when you race in this part of the world and since tides are known, we’ll cover those first.

Admiralty Inlet

1830       3.0 knts   Max fld

2300       Slack

27 June

0206       1.83        Max ebb

0506       Slack

0724       1.41        Max fld

1030       Slack

1336       1.8          Max ebb

1612       Slack

1924       2.81        Max fld

2348       Slack

West Point

2130    Slack

2312    .42       Max Ebb

27 June

0154    Slack

0706    .56       Max Fld

1018    Slack

1136    .16       Max Ebb

1254    Slack

1430    .16       Max fld

1930    .75       Fld

2230    Slack

Rosario Strait

2018    2.65     Max fld

27 June

0024    Slack

0406    1.57     Max ebb

0854    .3         ebb

1424    1.96     Max ebb

1742    Slack

Turn Point

27 June

0030    Slack

0206    .94       Max ebb

0436    Slack

0742    1.38     Max Fld

1042    Slack

1400    2.26     Max ebb

1701    Slack

2106    3.21     Max Fld

Now for the weather, it will be a tale of four regions, the Straits of JdF, the SJI, Admiralty Inlet (AI), and Puget Sound. As we know from racing around here, these are very much micro-regions and each can have very different weather which will be the case this weekend.

The Surface Charts show the reason for this. We are finally starting to get the Pacific High into a more normal position and nearly a normal pressure. This has contributed to the high becoming more rounded and as a result more stable. We’ve also had some very warm temperatures on the other side of the mountains which is supporting a thermal trough over the area. Higher pressure offshore, lower pressure inshore=onshore flow. Yes, in the charts and the Sat Pic you’ll see a cold front approaching with Langley radar just starting to pick up the leading edge of this very weak front. The Sat Pic shows there is not much to this and as it hits the coastal buffer zone it will rapidly deteriorate. There may be some scattered showers around however this won’t amount to much. By tomorrow morning it will be long gone and the offshore high will continue to build in pressure and become more stable.

Remember the old Puget Sound Rule of Thumb, the first day that the ridge of high pressure starts to build will be the best day for wind over the Sound. Such will be the case today. When we sent up the Sailish.com weather spy drone at 0600hrs this morning we had a relatively uniform northerly (8-12knts) over the area from Pt No Point to Pt Robinson. As of noon, it has dropped off, especially the area south of Alki, while at Race Rocks we had 36-knots of westerly, it has now eased to 30-knots however we can expect Gale warnings in the Central and Eastern Straits this afternoon and into the evening with 30-35-knots with higher gusts. The gradient difference from Forks to Bellingham is already at 2.1mb so the breeze will happen. This will fill down the Sound to at least the Narrows with 10-18 knots of NNW. While the wind will continue in the Straits overnight, after the sun goes down it will drop in the Sound.

Saturday, while the wind may have slightly eased in the Straits overnight, once the land starts to heat the westerly will once again build in the Straits. Unfortunately, the wind will stay light over most of the Sound until very late Saturday afternoon when it finally gets above five-knots for at least a couple of hours before it dies off again after sunset. 

By early Sunday morning, the wind in the Straits will start to ease and will continue to do so over the day as the pressure gradient weakens in the Straits. The Central Sound will have wide swaths of calm and very light air because some of the onshore flow will finally make it through the Chehalis Gap and start flowing up the Sound. This will keep the wind light and variable for most Sunday. By about midday Sunday, a light northerly should develop in Admiralty Inlet as the land once again begins to heat up.

As you can probably tell from the above description, the weather will be challenging for this weekend. Tonight will be no joke in the Straits so rig for heavy weather, get the jack lines set up, and everyone in lifejackets with safety harnesses. It will be nasty enough and with the flood tide, some boats may be tempted to go down the Sound first and try to get around Vashon tonight. This would make for a long race.

Those who go north first will find the Straits rough but once you get into the shelter of the Islands it will back right off with some boats making it to Patos by midnight. With any kind of luck, and that’s because the models don’t agree, the bigger boats will be back to PT by between 0600 and 1000 hrs Saturday morning after a nice close to beam reach becoming a run in 8-15 knots of WNW. This is when things will slow and right now it looks like even the big boats will have a tough time finishing within the time limit.

The good news is that if you’re a Seattle boat go north first, take your time at Pt. Hudson on the way south, and then when you realize you’re not going to make the time limit, it’s a short hop back to the dock. At least you can finish one race.

This is going to be a great race at least for a while. Enjoy and please keep the AIS on so I can see what’s going on out there.

Stay safe, and have a great time.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for the SUMMER SOLSTICE! 19, 20, 21, 22, and 23 June 2020

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for the SUMMER SOLSTICE! 19, 20, 21, 22, and 23 June 2020

It’s sort of good news and sort of bad news. Sure it’s the official start of summer, however, it also means we are now starting the slow but inevitable descent into fewer hours of daylight. And we are still not sailboat racing even though this morning there were more pleasure boats out on the Sound and headed for a weekend in Port Madison or Blake Island.

Unfortunately, it also looks like we are in for a bit of dampness starting tonight and extending into Saturday afternoon as we have an approaching cold front which is visible on the satellite picture, Langley Doppler Radar, and the surface charts. The difference between last week and today is that finally, the jet stream while remaining zonal, is starting to creep north. This will bring warmer temps to the area next week however the offshore high-pressure system is still not very strong or very stable so it will continue to be pushed around and weakened by the frontal systems coming in from the Pacific. The 96-hour forecast shows that we may have another cold front coming in late Tuesday or early Wednesday. At least this front may disrupt the pattern of fronts showing up on the weekends.

As far as wind goes, with the front coming in there will be southerlies in the Sound however nothing very strong. By late Saturday afternoon with frontal passage, onshore flow will bring westerlies down the Strait of JdF. This will continue into Sunday with some breezier conditions in Strait of Jdf, light northerlies in Admiralty Inlet, light air in the Central Sound, and southwesterly flow for the South Sound.

So, don’t forget to have your Solstice cocktail at 1443 hrs tomorrow as a salute to summer and some better days ahead. Plus, don’t worry there will be pretty much perfect barbeque weather for Father’s Day, have a good one!  

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 12, 13, 14, 15, June 2020

It’s beginning to look a lot like a typical June in the Pacific Northwest, some sun, some clouds, some rain, some lightning, some hail, and as we said last week, no summer until the 5th of July. At least the first official day of summer is only 8 days away, arriving on the 20th of June, 1444 hrs PDT which means we can’t be too far away from the lowest tides of the year and the best time to take the kids on a beach walk. Remember, take pictures not critters, and be sure to turn the rocks back over once you’re done investigating. This year that would be on June 23rd at right around noon with a -2.38 foot tide at Discovery Bay or -2.71feet at West Point.

Here in the rainshadow of the Olympics at Discovery Bay, we’ve had .87 inches of rain so far today which is very near a record for June for this location. Overall, at SeaTac, we are almost 4” of rain ahead for June and as you look at the surface charts for today, it ain’t about to stop! At least the Doppler weather radar is showing some relief headed our way, not so much for Seattle or the South Sound. 

The reason for all this continues to be a depressed jet stream which is primarily zonal. The jet stream continues to be well south of where it should be on this date. Even with the days getting longer in the northern hemisphere, which should be causing atmospheric heating and fostering a strengthening of the Pacific High, this is not yet happening. Then when you look at the upper air charts you’ll see a succession of upper-level low-pressure systems continuing to move towards the Pacific NW.

Overall, this means more unsettled conditions coming into our area for most of the upcoming week. With higher pressure offshore this will bring a continuing onshore flow that will come down the Straits as well as around the bottom side of the Olympics. This will keep the wind light in the central Sound but there will be occasional stronger westerlies in the central and eastern Strait of JdF.

Stay healthy, stay dry, and enjoy the weekend.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 5, 6, 7, 8 June, WVYC and RNSA Singlehanded-Doublehanded Pt Grey Pursuit Race

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 5, 6, 7, 8 June, WVYC and RNSA Singlehanded-Doublehanded Pt Grey Pursuit Race

This West Vancouver Yacht Club race is a great idea and a great way to get sailboat racing restarted. Meets all the requirements for your social bubble and social distancing with even a provision that if contestants get within six-feet of one another they can be disqualified without a hearing. The course is pretty simple starting from the Pt. Grey Bell Buoy, round Popham and Little Popham to port and then return to the Pt Grey Buoy. Just 20 miles with handicaps applied at the start and as of this morning there are 42 entrants.

There may be a little rain over the weekend but it won’t be a washout. Today’s Surface Analysis and Sat Pic show a complex weather picture which none of the models can agree on as far as where the wind will come from and how much wind there will be. The reason for this is that there may be a bit of a pressure gradient bringing S-SSW wind over the area tomorrow morning however that gradient will ease around mid-day bringing light air to the race course. One model has the breeze at race time from the NW so a light air beat to the top mark. Another has the 5-8 knots from the SW for the start becoming southerly 4-6 knots from the S. All caused by a very weak gradient over the area. This will keep crews busy, trimming like crazy as the wind will be shifty.

A glance at the 500mb charts show the jet stream flattening out to the south of us and this will bring more unsettled into our area next week. As usual, no summer until July 5th.

Enjoy the weekend, and if you have AIS please leave it on for the race so I can follow it from Seattle.

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 29, 30, 31 May and 1 June

Ed. note: a previous incarnation of this post was incomplete due to technical difficulties – KH

Don’t let this week’s beautiful weather lull you into complacency. The weather is going to change dramatically and what’s interesting is that it’s not for the usual reasons. This is where having access to good weather charts and up-to-date weather information will keep you out of what could be some nasty, wet, and windy conditions.

“Normally” we would look to the west on our charts to see what is coming our way. Today’s surface analysis chart and satellite picture do show a 995mb low-pressure off of SE Alaska however there is no attached frontal system. Our weather maker is attached to a cutoff, upper-level low off of southern California which is moving up the coast on the south side of the jet stream.

The other point of interest is that in the usual pre-frontal scenario the breeze tends to be from the SE. This weekend will bring rain with a strong onshore flow (20-30 knts of westerly) at times starting tonight in the central and eastern Strait of JdF and lasting through the weekend before it finally starts to ease late Sunday afternoon and evening. Some of that strong onshore flow will show up as 25-knots of NW late Saturday afternoon in Admiralty Inlet and flow down Sound with 15-20 knots of N-NE.

The other manifestation of this strong onshore flow combined with large ebb tides along the coast is this afternoons Langley Hill Radar image which shows just how rough the water can be off the entrance to Grays Harbor Bar. Combined seas to 10-feet especially at times of maximum ebb. The way to tell if it’s sea state or weather is to loop the Long Range Image on the Radar and you’ll notice everything else that shows up on the radar moves while the blob off of Grays Harbor stays in one place.

Once this system moves off to the north, surface high pressure will rebuild over the offshore and coastal waters. This will bring a return of more normal weather to the Pacific NW. There is however yet another system out in the Pacific which may bring more rain to the area by the middle to end of next week. This is because our Pacific High has not yet developed and the high off of coast is weak and can still be pushed around by these low-pressure systems coming across the Gulf of Alaska.

Enjoy the weekend!

The upper-level low is continuing its track northward and will impact the area beginning on Saturday. Rain will become heaviest in the area on Saturday night as the main wave associated with the trough moves through. A slight chance of thunder lingers in the  western slopes of the Cascades. This event is poised to be an eastern Washington event in terms of more rigorous convection. Showers will begin to taper off across the region by Sunday as the system continues north.  

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 23, 24, 25, 26 and 27 May, SWIFTSURE! (not)

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 23, 24, 25, 26 and 27 May, SWIFTSURE! (not)

Yeah, I know, there is no Swiftsure however I just can’t help myself besides, it’s good practice. Tahlequah is also having a pre-Swiftsure zoom meeting this afternoon to discuss the weather and plan our strategy for the Race. For some reason, the meeting time is the same as cocktail hour. I wonder why? 

I digress, anyway, the delivery up yesterday would have been a bit nasty from Pt. Townsend to Victoria with 30-knots of westerly and only slightly less today. The real question is, of course, what will happen tomorrow? As always, the tides will play a big role so let’s check those first.

Tidal Current at Race Passage, 5-23.

0811      Max Ebb                 5.6 knots

1213      Slack

1522      Max Flood            5.2 knots

1856      Slack

2008      Max Ebb                 3.5 knots

5-24

0138      Slack

0257      Max Flood            1.0 knot

0423      Slack

0842      Max Ebb                 5.8 knots

1246      Slack

1555      Max Flood            5.3 knots

1935      Slack

Today’s surface analysis chart shows a weak high-pressure system offshore with a weak low-pressure system just on the other side of the Cascades which is why we have an onshore flow. This will weaken during the day tomorrow as the low dissipates and the pressure gradient expands over the Pacific NW as another frontal system makes its way towards us. This system will move slowly over us on Sunday pushing the offshore high to the south. This will give us cool, unstable air over the area with some weak shower activity.

For the race, this will mean a classic Swiftsure sucker punch. Plenty of wind and a nice ebb at the start will mean that all fleets will have no problem getting out the Straits in 10-15 knots of WNW. By 1400 hours we’ll have 15-22-knots of northwesterly in the central Straits.  As Crossfire and the long course boats get past Clallam Bay, the breeze will begin to ease. The TP-52s and the big boats on the Flattery Race should start to round the Neah Bay Mark around 1800 hours and be back through the Race by 0200 and finish around 0500 hours. That noise you hear is the door slamming on the rest of their fleet.

For the Long Course boats, it will get very light just past Neah Bay and that will hold until early Sunday morning when a light SE will fill in along the coast, unfortunately, it will be light the rest of the way back to the finish with Crossfire finishing around 1800 hours Sunday evening. On this course and the Cape Flattery Race, the first boat back into the central Strait around Slip Pt to Pillar Pt will be the first boat into what is left of the wind and if they can get back through the Race before the tide starts to ebb strongly around 0530, they will be the winner.

For boats like the J-35 Tahlequah, this will mean rounding Neah Bay at around 2230 hours but not finishing until 1600 hours Sunday afternoon. Just in time for the rain to start.

For the rest of the Salish Sea, you can expect light air with some overcast and some scattered showers. The good news is that the freezing level will come down to about 4500-ft and that will mean more snow for the mountains.

Enjoy your weekend and I hope we can start to get ready for some Wednesday Night Racing in early June!

Ed. Note: Let’s have some post non-race reports. I’m thinking a couple of blown kites, a bit of seasickness and maybe a mutiny or two. If it didn’t really happen, which it won’t, have some fun. Also, keep sending info a Corona Virus style racing. You know, shorthanded and family fun. Stay safe everyone. While I wouldn’t call the docks buzzing today, there certainly was more of a sense of normalcy today. -KH

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 15, 16, 17, and 18 May 2020 and the Ides of May

Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 15, 16, 17, and 18 May 2020 and the Ides of May

It’s the Ides of May which really has nothing to do with anything except we now only have only 16 days until the start of hurricane season and yet we do have the chance of the first named storm of the season developing this weekend between Florida and Cuba. Plus a fairly gnarly typhoon slammed into the Philippines this week as if they didn’t have enough problems already. (Ed. Note: Bruce’s “Ides” sent me to an online investigation, and after extracting myself from the Roman calendar and the Roman gods, I am getting back to posting the weather….)

Luckily for the Pacific NW, we are going to have a lovely day today followed by a moist but not a super-soaker weekend. Just enough to keep the lawn and freshly planted flowers happy. The surface chart today and the high-resolution satellite pic show the weak high-pressure system over us and extending down the coast. The sat pic also clearly shows a very well-defined low-pressure system with the attached cold front that will be with us starting tonight and extending into Saturday. By Sunday this system will be to the east of us with a weak trough of low pressure just off the coast.

Most of the breeze this weekend will be off the coast on Saturday with 20-25-knot pre-frontal southeasterly. The eastern end of the Straits of JdF will have 15-20-knot east-southeasterly most of the day Saturday however with frontal passage this will ease around midnight on Saturday. By Sunday this will become a weak onshore flow down the Straits which will slowly build over the day to maybe 15-20 knots in the eastern Straits by late Sunday afternoon. The rest of the waters will see mostly light wind for the weekend.

And then next weekend we’ll have our usual update for Swiftsure even if the race isn’t going to happen. We’ll also have post-Swiftsure virtual reports about how boats did on the race all done from the comfort of your office chair. Feel free to submit your report. 

Enjoy a little quarantine time down on the boat to check mooring lines and fenders and as we saw last weekend, it’s ok to take the boat out and get some time on the water.