Considering what a weird year for weather it has been it probably shouldn’t surprise anyone that it looks like a fairly nice weekend for sailing. The very strange part is that there will be more wind in the South Sound than in the Central and North Sound. Plus, for once even though we are setting up for an onshore flow, after today the Straits won’t be howling.
Today’s surface analysis chart combined with today’s satellite pic show a weak trough of low-pressure over the Sound with a weak high offshore. This pattern will persist over the weekend bringing a predominately southerly flow along the coast and into the Sound for tomorrow. The high will gradually build over the area bringing light air for Mothers Day. Since it is a weak onshore flow there will be some breeze coming through the Chehalis Gap with a stronger push later in the day as the offshore flow shifts from southerly to westerly. If you like sailing in 5-11-knots of S-SW breeze, you will like tomorrow.
May 7 500 MB
May 7n Surface Analysis
May 8 Surface Forecast
May 9 500 MB
May 9 Surface Forecast
May 10 Surface Forecast
May 11 500 MB
May 11 Surface Forecast
The problem will be that dash between the 5 and 11. The breeze will be spotty in places and shifty along the west side of the Sound. From Shilshole to Pt. Robinson you’ll want to sail fairly close to the rhumbline and avoid the obvious holes. After Robinson, look for long starboard tacks and short port tacks so you don’t get too close to the beach where while there may be big starboard tack lifts in close, the breeze will be lighter.
The bottom end of Vashon will be its usual challenge with light air in close and better current well off the beach. Just find the happy medium, usually easier said than done.
Going north in Colvos will be sailing your gybe angles and trying to find the strongest current. As you get to the north end of Colvos the ebb will be slightly stronger along the Blake Island side just don’t get in too close. From Blake to the finish will be staying in the breeze and not sailing too far off of rhumb.
Not a lot of definitive information here but it will be one of those days where keeping your head out of the boat, watching the puffs, and the competition will keep tacticians very busy.
The models are fairly consistent with the RP-55 and the TP-52’s finishing the long course by about 1630 hrs. The J-125 in at1930 hrs, the B-40.7 in at 2115, and the J-109 in at 2140hrs.
The J-105s on the short course should be home by about 1830 hours.
Enjoy the weekend and leave your AIS on so I can track you.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Looks like just under 70 boats have signed up for the Sloops always popular Race to the Straits Race. Unfortunately, it also looks like someone forgot to get the wind on the same page. As you can see from the surface analysis chart today and the satellite pic, the front will move through today followed by a strong, post-frontal onshore flow down the Straits. The wind offshore will remain relatively light, 10-12 knots from the NW, which will mean that there won’t be much flow through the Chehalis Gap. This means that as the day goes on, the Central Sound will be in the light air lee of the Olympics.
The course this year is interesting as you won’t be going to Port Townsend. Instead on Saturday you’ll round Possession Point Buoy and return to Shilshole. Sunday start at Shilshole round Blake Island to starboard and return to Shilshole.
April 30 500 MB
April 30 Surface Analysis
May 1 Surface Forecast
May 2 500 MB
May 2 Surface Forecast
May 3 Surface Forecast
May 4 500 MB
May 4 Surface Forecast
Tidal currents will an issue especially on Saturday. Listed below is the current at Foulweather Bluff which approximates Possession Pt. Remember also the ebb flows south out of Possession Sound and that ebb carries south along the Edmonds shore almost all the way to Edmonds.
Date Time (LST/LDT) Event Speed (knots)
2021-05-01 06:06 AM flood 1.20
2021-05-01 08:18 AM slack –
2021-05-01 12:12 PM ebb -2.74
2021-05-01 03:30 PM slack –
2021-05-01 06:42 PM flood 2.66
Tidal Current Sunday at West Point
Date Time (LST/LDT) Event Speed (knots)
2021-05-02 06:18 flood 0.39
2021-05-02 09:00 slack –
2021-05-02 10:42 ebb -0.34
2021-05-02 12:30 slack –
2021-05-02 19:06 flood 0.93
As is typical following frontal passage, the best time for breeze will be immediately after the front passes. The more time that passes, the more the pressure gradient will ease as will the breeze except where the breeze in the Straits is topographically compressed from Sheringham Point to the Eastern end of the Straits. By late in the day, each day, the breeze will slowly fill down Admiralty Inlet. Between those times it will be light.
Saturday, the boats that start early will have an advantage because there will still be some southerly and there will be a nice ebb to get to Edmonds then as mentioned above you’ll have to fight the ebb coming out of Possession Sound. Remember also that the breeze typically goes light the closer you get to Possession Point. The current is also flowing from east to west at the buoy so you will want to watch your set as you approach the mark. No need to swap paint with the buoy. The return trip to Shilshole will be light and shifty with some northerly late in the afternoon.
Sunday will simply be light air in the central Sound and if it’s light in the central Sound it will be dead behind Blake Island. The good news is that the models are not in total agreement about will happen however your best bet will be to log the baro pressures around the Pac NW from your VHF when you leave the boat on Saturday and then check again when you get to the boat Sunday morning.
Another weak frontal system will pass through the area late Monday and into Tuesday with the rest of the week remaining cloudy with average temps. See the 3 May surface forecast chart.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
After a very nice stretch of record-setting beautiful weather, things will start changing this evening and continue through the weekend. This will mean rain for tomorrow but a not so rainy day on Sunday. The surface analysis chart shows a number of weak low-pressure systems along the West Coast however with slightly higher pressure offshore this will keep the onshore flow in place. As a weak frontal system moves onshore tonight and into tomorrow this will allow a weak trough of low pressure to persist over the area through the weekend. All of these factors contribute to the fact that the models are not in agreement about what will actually happen on the racecourse.
April 23 500MB
April 23 Surface Forecast
April 24 Surface Forecast
April 25 500MB
April 25 Surface Forecast
April 26 Surface Forecast
April 27 500MB
April 27 Surface Forecast
We do however know what will be happening with the tides which combined with what looks like a bit of light air will certainly make the racing interesting.
Tidal Currents in Admiralty Inlet off of Bush Point.
0706 Max Ebb 2.25 knots
1000 Slack
1254 Max Flood 2.33 knots
1624 Slack
1906 Max ebb 1.95 knots
2148 Slack
Sunday
0048 Max Flood 2.51 knots
0430 Slack
0742 Max Ebb 2.69 knots
1036 Slack
1336 Max Flood 2.70 knots
The surface forecast chart for tomorrow shows very little pressure gradient over the Pacific NW however with seven low-pressure systems, five inland from the Canadian Border south to the Sea of Cortez and two off of our coast, this will keep a southerly breeze over the central Sound for tomorrow morning. As the front moves through and dissipates this will bring, shall we say, unsettled conditions to the racecourse. Plenty of wind to get started however as the fleet goes north the wind will ease as you get closer to Pt. No Pt. By midday, a weak offshore flow will develop in the Straits resulting in a SE flow in Admiralty Inlet. With the tide starting to flood about 1000hrs this will keep the fleet on the beach and having to deal with the dilemma of Skunk Bay where there will be less tide but less wind. By mid-afternoon, the north end of Admiralty Inlet will be light and this will extend out to Protection Island. With max flood approaching three-knots at Pt. Wilson, this will make getting out to the Straits very interesting. Gradually, a weak onshore flow will develop in the Straits and slowly fill down Admiralty Inlet where eventually it will meet the southerly flow coming up the Central Sound. All the while, wind velocities will remain in the 5-9-knot range. This is going to keep navigators and tacticians on their toes trying to figure out where the next puff will come from. Once again the lighter boats with the taller rigs will do better in these conditions.
The current NAM model has the RP-55 around the course in about 15 hours finishing just after midnight, the TP-52’s around in 16 hours, the Beneteau 40.7 around in 19 hours, and the J-109 around in 19.5 hours, almost a sunrise finish.
On the short course, the J-105’s should be around in 8 hours finishing around 1800 hrs.
The other surface chart of interest is the 48hr surface forecast which sets a new record on the Roser Low Index Scale with 14 low pressure systems plotted, including the Post Tropical Cyclone Surigae making into the western Pacific. This will combine with another low-pressure system to produce a very strong low capable of hurricane-force winds in the western Pacific. We will definitely want to watch where this system goes especially since the 500MB charts show the flow becoming more meridional over the central Pacific.
Enjoy the weekend!
Ed. Note: For all of us small boat sailors, PSSR small boats promises to be shifty as well.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
One of those weeks where we love the Pacific NW. We had a record high temp yesterday and it will remain warm and sunny this weekend. The rest of the country is not so nice with more snow in Colorado, a hellacious windstorm off of Louisiana that capsized a large oil platform boat and took lives, a developing storm system off the NE US that will bring rain and strong winds to coastal New England and more snow to their interior. Then late Sunday and into early next week we will see yet another blast of cold air come down from Canada and into the upper Mid-West. All the while and into next week we will have to deal with more sunny skies and temps in the upper 60’s and low 70’s, DARN!
April 16 500MB
April 16 Surface Analysis
April 17 Surface Forecast
April 18 500MB
April 18 Surface Forecast
April 19 Surface Forecast
April 20 500 MB
April 20 Surface Forecast
Today’s surface analysis chart shows the reason for these conditions with two weak high-pressure systems (1022MB off of SoCal and 1026Mb off of Haida Gwai) offshore and a persistent 1031MB high in southern BC. The way these are oriented will continue to bring an offshore flow to the area which combined with some downslope compressional heating will help keep the Salish Sea warmer than normal. The pressure gradient has eased considerably from mid-week and will continue to do so over the weekend bringing lighter breeze to our waters.
As far as sailboat racing goes, it is going to be light and shifty no matter where you’ll be sailing with the best chance of wind coming in the mid to late afternoon both days in the Central Sound in the form of an 8-12 knot northerly.
The other charts of interest today are the 48-96hr surface forecast charts and the 500MB charts. The 48hr chart shows a weak(987MB) but round and well-formed low-pressure system with an attached frontal system off of the Oregon Coast drifting to the north however the front will start slightly impacting our weather by Tuesday. The high over BC will strengthen to 1045MB and that will keep the low-pressure systems offshore and weaken the fronts as they approach the coast. The high-pressure system offshore is still not very strong and it will elongate as it gets pushed by the next low-pressure system coming in from the mid-Pacific.
The 500MB charts show that finally, the jet stream is shifting to the north as the flow becomes more meridional. This will keep the temps near normal and at least on this side of the mountains, I think we’ve seen the last of freezing temps. I know I’m moving the plants that have been indoors all winter back out to the deck this afternoon.
The 96hr 500MB chart shows the formation of an upper-level cut-off low-pressure system off the north end of Vancouver Island. While it won’t be a huge weather maker it may bring rain to our area by late next weekend and into the next week.
It’s always interesting to watch the weather transition as it occurs, so if you’re on the water don’t be lulled into a sense of complacency. Also remember that, as at least one of the Hoehne boys found out, the water may look very inviting but it is still very cold!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
This will certainly be a very interesting race as the models are nowhere in agreement about what will happen when. Once again the race will have an amazing turnout with over 100 boats currently registered and it’s all for a good cause, The Center for Wooden Boats. They even have a boat in the race, the beautifully restored Pirate (Thank you, Scott Rohrer.)
Today’s surface analysis chart, Sat Pic, and Langely Doppler all agree that we have a front headed our way which will pass over our area late this afternoon. Behind this front, a strong onshore flow will develop with gale warnings posted for the Central and Eastern Strait of JdF and strong northerlies along the coast. This will bring breeze in through the Chehalis Gap and up the Sound. The strong onshore flow and the weaker flow through the Gap have to meet somewhere and that will be the challenge for tomorrow. Eventually, the stronger flow down the Straits will push down the Sound and the timing of that is uncertain.
April 9 500 MB
April 9 Surface Analysis
April 10 Surface Forecast
April 11 500 MB
April 11 Surface Forecast
April 12 Surface Forecast
April 13 500 MB
April 13 Surface Forecast
The problem for the race committee may be that at 1100hrs the breeze will still be light and from the south which would dictate a course that goes to Blakely Rock first. The breeze will then start to ease and may go dead for a short while right in the middle of the starting sequence before it finally fills in from the NW. Now we have a downwind start, which will be exciting especially since we should get to see the RP-55 Zvi (how do you pronounce that?) in her racing debut come flying through the fleet. Overall, the downwind start would be much preferred over a start in a weak northerly with a flood tide and this huge fleet all bunched up, trying to get around Meadow Point. We’ve seen that movie before and it ain’t pretty as there is generally more breeze on the outside so boats will do their approach on port tack and try to find a hole in a line of starboard tackers trying to get around the mark with what breeze there is all chopped up. There will be more wind further aloft so the tall rigs will benefit in each class.
Once we get started down the Sound in the northerly, you’ll simply sail your polars to the Rock and then get on the wind to head back across to Fourmile Rock being careful to not sail inside of a line from Fourmile to the Lighthouse as it is very shallow in there. Once you pass West Point on starboard you’ll tack when you can lay the entrance to the Ship Canal. If we started in a southerly then it will be a starboard rounding at Meadow Point with a run to the finish so you’ll rig for a port pole if the breeze is east of north otherwise, it’s time for a gybe set to stay in the breeze and the flood tide. You’ll be glad you practiced that.
The current NAM model has the RP-55 around the course in 5hrs and 25 minutes. The current HRRRv4 model has the RP-55 around in 2.25 hrs, the J-111 around in 2.5 hours, the C&C 115 around in 2.65 hrs, and the J-35’s and J-109’s around in 2.75hrs. I’m voting for the HRRR model. It also has the breeze staying out of the SW until mid-afternoon. The UW MM5 model has the northerly filling down by 1300 hrs.
The weather for next week will be the best and warmest we’ve had this year as the jet stream is finally starting to move north. The elongated high-pressure system offshore will continue to direct storm systems into SE Alaska with some remnants of fronts occasionally dragging over the top of us. Generally, the weather is just going to continue to improve.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Oops, not really, but it is still fun to remember one of our most favorite races. Probably would have been a nice race with not too much wind just getting a little on the cool side overnight. Then again, if you look at the Surface Analysis Chart and the 500MB Charts you will see the reasons why our weather continues to be wetter and cooler than normal, as we pointed out last week, and why it will continue that way into the coming week.
April 2 500MB
April 2 Surface Analysis
April 3 Surface Forecast
April 4 500MB
April 4 Surface Forecast
April 6 500 MB
April 6 Surface Forecast
Today’s Surface Analysis Chart shows a very complex weather picture with no less than SEVEN Low-pressure systems in the NE Pacific and two areas of high pressure including a fairly strong (1038MB) high well out in the Pacific. The Satellite pic also shows these low-pressure systems and associated fronts. These fronts are relatively weak and slow-moving with one clearing the eastern Strait of JdF now and moving into eastern Washington. The next front will arrive Sunday however it will weaken as it comes onshore. High pressure will begin to build over the area after this weak front dissipates. This will keep the wind speed towards the low end of the scale with the central and eastern Straits seeing westerly breeze near 20-knots Saturday night and early Sunday morning. This breeze will ease by mid-morning Sunday.
April 2 Satellite Picture PNW
April 2 Satellite Picture North Pacific
The other charts of interest are the 500MB charts which show a distinctly meridional flow to the jet stream as it passes over the top of that high-pressure system before dropping to the south along our coast. This is what will allow fronts associated with these weak low-pressure systems to continue to bring cooler air into the Salish Sea.
The 96-hr 500MB Chart also shows the development of an upper-level cut-off low about midway between San Francisco and Hawaii. It probably won’t move very far and it will be interesting to watch how long it will last out there. Remember, it was two years ago that a similar system stalled over Kauai bringing 48” of rain in 24 hours to the north shore, flooding the Hanalei Valley and causing widespread damage.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Almost an inch of rain yesterday (at the airport) and as of today, we are 3.5” above normal and .75 inches ahead of last year which was abnormally moist. Just as long as we don’t get too much heat too fast, it’s fine. Plus the freezing level is going to be coming down significantly late Sunday and into Monday which will help preserve the snowpack. Don’t be surprised to see some snowflakes mixed with the rain.
Today’s surface analysis chart shows the remains of a weak low-pressure system right on top of the Pacific NW hence the cloud cover. There is also a respectable high offshore (1033Mb) which isn’t going to move very far and will help weaken the next front that is due to arrive late Sunday. When you compare the surface chart with the 500MB chart you’ll also see that this high extends well aloft. This is keeping the jet stream to the north before it dives to the south and comes ashore at the US/Mex Border and heads due east. This is the same formula that has resulted in the wild weather in the SE USA over the last 10 days.
March 26 500 MB
March 26 Surface Analysis
March 27 Surface Forecast
March 28 500 MB
March 28 Surface Forecast
March 29 Surface Forecast
March 30 500 MB
March 30 Surface Forecast
Today’s satellite pic, while showing some clearing in the Straits of JdF, still has plenty of cloud cover over the rest of the area. This will continue through tomorrow, just don’t be fooled, be sure to put on plenty of sunblock before you leave the house.
While we have just about a perfect wind for the TTP Race today, the surface forecast chart shows that the pressure gradient will ease over the area tomorrow keeping the breeze in the 5-10-knot range for the start with less wind to the south and the breeze over the racecourse gradually easing over the day. Luckily for us, the Race Committee isn’t afraid to set an alternative course to take advantage of what wind is present. Might as well make it a clean sweep for the Center Sound Series.
Luckily for us, the tides won’t be an issue.
Tidal Current at West Point
0812 Slack
1336 Max Flood .74 knts
1630 Slack
1806 Max Ebb .43 knts
The current NAM model has the TP-52’s around the course in about 6.25 hours, the J-111’s around in 7 hours, and the J-35’s and J-109’s around in 8.5 hours.
By Sunday, another system will make its presence felt over the area as it brings rain and wind to the Salish Sea. It will have the effect of weakening the high currently off of our coast and moving it slightly to the south. What’s very interesting is the 1042MB high behind this front and the 974Mb low off to the NW of this high. Not a trivial low-pressure system. This will be fun to watch as we approach the end of the month.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Yet another very interesting day for weather in the Pacific NW. It started with a tornado warning for the Central Coast this morning and then moments ago a special weather warning issued for a waterspout about 10-15 miles off the coast from Westport to Destruction Island. The combination of surface analysis, satellite pics, and Langley Hill Doppler radar all provide vivid confirmation of what’s happening out there.
The surface analysis chart shows a weakening low-pressure system and associated trough approaching the coast with a nice pressure gradient driving a southerly flow up the Sound. The breeze is still pre-frontal with a SE of 33 knots at Destruction Island. After this system moves to the east, a strong onshore flow will develop after midnight tonight and continue through Saturday. The offshore wind will change very quickly to a strong NW flow along the coast. While the wind in the Straits will remain at 15-30 knots from the west all day on Saturday, it will be light in the Central and South Sound until mid to late afternoon on Saturday when finally, the onshore flow will shift from NW to WNW and make it through the Chehalis Gap and into the South Sound.
March 19 500 MB
March 19 Surface Analysis
March 20 Surface Forecast
March 21 500 MB
March 21 Surface Forecast
March 22 Surface Forecast
March 23 500 MB
March 23 Surface Forecast
It should also be noted that the NDBC sites are back up but not completely, data can be late or there can be gaps in the data. So, if you’re looking at the graphs of surface pressure and windspeed you’ll find some interesting plots.
While we have a nice breeze up and down the Sound today, when you look at the surface forecast chart for 20 March you’ll notice that the pressure gradient will ease considerably and this is what will bring lighter conditions for the Islands Race. The race will start with a light southerly up Colvos which will ease as the wind shifts from southerly to southwesterly. As the westerly in the Straits works its way down the Sound a convergence zone will develop from central Colvos north to Admiralty Inlet. This will dissipate by mid-afternoon as a westerly flow comes around the bottom of the Olympics.
Langley Hill Doppler 3/19
NWS Forecast Office
Satellite pic 3/19
After you round the top mark of the course there may be some residual southerly however once you get south of Blake Island you’ll want to favor the west side of Colvos in anticipation of puffs from the west and to stay out of the tide. Just don’t get too close to the beach on the west side as it will be light in there. As you get south in Colvos and the breeze becomes more westerly have the barber-hauler rigged and get ready for some aggressive trimming to take advantage of the close reaching conditions.
Another front will come through the area on Sunday and as you can see from the upper air charts, the jet stream will continue to bring wet and mild conditions into the Pacific NW. At least the jet steam is finally starting to move north so spring is on its way!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Plenty of wind last weekend, not so much this weekend. That, however, is racing in Puget Sound. Today’s surface analysis chart shows a weak ridge of high pressure over the Salish Sea extending southwesterly from southern BC out to a high-pressure system (1030MB) off of San Francisco. By tomorrow this will have been pushed slightly to the east as the next system approaches the coast. The gradient will somewhat tighten as the next front gets closer.
The satellite picture shows the sunny conditions we have now as well as the next cloud cover coming onshore. While we may have calm conditions on the Sound now, this will give way to a more southerly flow over the racecourse tomorrow, just not a strong flow. The other point of interest is that the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off on 9 March are not yet back up with no ETR as of this afternoon. This means we probably won’t have our graph of conditions (baro, gust, wind speed) at West Point or any other NDBC sites. This will make the Western Washington current conditions chart even more important. https://atmos.washington.edu/cgi-bin/latest.cgi?sfcplots-wwa
March 12 current conditions
March 12 Surface Analysis
March 13 Surface Forecast
March 14 500 MB
March 14 Surface Forecast
March 15 Surface Forecast
March 16 500 MB
March 16 Surface Forecast
Tidal currents are always important on this race and you’ll want to look at two different stations. West Point for the start-finish line and Foulweather Bluff for an estimate of conditions at Scatchet Head. The actual speed at Scatchet Head will be about .5 to .75 of the values at FWB.
West Point
0800 Slack
1412 Max Flood .72 knots
1636 Slack
1806 Max Ebb .42 knots
Foulweather Bluff
0906 Max Ebb 1.93 knots
1200 Slack
1436 Max Flood 1.75 knots
1730 Slack
Generally speaking, winds will be in the 5-12 knot range with lighter winds on the southern part of the course. At the start, depending on where the start line is set, the wind will probably be from SSE so a starboard tack start should work you just don’t want to hold starboard very long because there will tend to be more wind to the west. As you sail north, it will tend to build on the west side of the Sound first, just watch the TWD and TWS, and don’t get too far to the west of the rhumbline. Since it will be light, you’ll need to keep your head out of the boat and watch what’s going on around you. The other thing to remember is that the flood tide starts first on the west side of the Sound. So after you round the mark you’ll probably want to hold port tack, head to the west, and beat down that shore watching COG and SOG until Jeff Head before heading to the finish. As you get south the breeze will tend to lighten from Kingston south.
As of this afternoon, it looks like the TP-52’s will be around the course in about 5.2 to 5.5 hours, the J-111’s abound in 6 hours, the J-35’s, J-109’s around in 7.5 hours and the J-105’s around in about 7.8 to 8 hours. It will probably be tough for the slower boats to finish within the time limit. While it will be a long day on the water, at least it will be relatively warm.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Ed. Note – Bruce is going to give a chalk talk on the weather outlook for tomorrow’s Blakely Rock Race for CYC Seattle. See below for details.
As we said in November, it was going to be a wetter and cooler than normal winter and it has pretty much worked out that way. As of today, we are almost four inches of rainfall above average and even though last year was way above normal we are still .06 inches ahead of where we were a year ago. I bring this up because while we may have had some beautiful days this last week with above normal temps which got a lot of plants and trees starting to bloom, don’t expect more of the same this coming week.
March 5 500 MB
March 5
March 6 Surface Forecast
March 7 500 MB
March 7 Surface Forecast
March 8 Surface Forecast
March 9 500 MB
March 9 Surface Forecast
Today’s satellite pic certainly tells the story and when you combine this with the Surface Analysis chart and 500Mb chart you can see why we are going to have a very interesting weekend. The satellite pic shows the low-pressure system with the attached cold front off of our coast as well as the next frontal system. It’s the area behind the cold front (the comma-shaped solid white clouds) with all those irregularly shaped, puffy white clouds that will make tomorrow interesting for Blakely Rock racers. This marks an area of cooler, unstable air which will keep the post-frontal conditions unsettled. Think of it as pulses of breeze that will be coming through the Chehalis Gap and up the Sound. In the morning, since the breeze offshore will be very southerly this will keep the breeze in the Central Sound southerly. As the breeze offshore becomes more southwesterly, this will bring more of a southwesterly component to the breeze in the Central Sound. While this may seem straightforward, the problem will be that there can be areas of lighter air as these pulses of breeze move up the Sound.
As we get towards the late afternoon/early evening tomorrow, the breeze offshore will become more of a pre-frontal southeasterly in anticipation of the arrival of the next front (visible in the sat pic). This will have the effect of easing the breeze in the Central Sound until early Sunday. It will be the coast that will experience the higher winds and seas. This is where it also becomes useful to compare the surface analysis chart to the 500Mb chart. The surface chart shows three low-pressure systems moving in an almost circular pattern in the Gulf of Alaska down to our coast. The 500MB chart shows two upper-level lows off of BC with the jet stream coming ashore just north of San Francisco. Over the next four days, these two upper-level lows will consolidate into one and not move however this will have the effect of driving the jet stream further south which will keep us in a wet and cool pattern for the week.
As far as Blakely Rock goes, this should be a great race. Challenging but fairly consistent wind conditions and not much tide, however, as always, the geography of the Sound will have a profound effect on the breeze since we have to sail back and forth across the Sound.
Tidal Current at West Point
0948 Slack
1136 Max Ebb .3 knots
1324 Slack
2000 Max Flood .79 knots
The keys for the Race will be to get a clean start and sail into breakwater or Magnolia Bluff avoiding the outfall from the Ship Canal. Current radar has bands of rain moving across the area which will have the effect of slightly increasing the velocity of the outfall as well as increasing the ebb in the area of West Point because of the outfall from the Duwamish. The combination of rain plus a steady southerly will extend the ebb by about 20-30 minutes at West Point. There will be a slight SE shift from Shilshole to West Point inside of a line from Meadow Point to the Lighthouse. Just be careful not to get in too close to the beach as there may be a significant drop in windspeed. You will probably get to West Point on port tack and you’ll just want to hold port and sail across the Sound. As you cross, you’ll be slowly knocked. Watch your windspeed as you get closer to Bainbridge and while you may get a significant knock you may also lose wind speed. You’ll want to work up to Blakely Rock favoring long starboard tacks and short port tacks. As always, be careful working south along Wing Point, it sticks out further than you may think. Plan your approach to Blakely Rock as it may be difficult to keep your air clear as the fleet will tend to compress at the rock. Watch the boats ahead to see what kind of sets they are doing.
It usually pays to do a port pole set at the mark as the breeze should be from the SW. This will hold until you are near Tyee Shoal where you maybe lifted so gybe out and sail your angles as you run north. Generally speaking, you will want to stay near the rhumbline or slightly to the west of rhumb and, of course, keep your air clear and anticipate overtaking situations. Give the slower boats a break and pass well to windward or way to leeward.
As you pass West Point, start planning your rounding at the top mark, which will hopefully be in the correct location. As you pass the start/finish line, check to see if one end is favored. You’d like to be the inside boat at the mark however that may mean a port gybe approach as the wind will probably be around to the SSW by then.
Once you round the top mark, it will be a long starboard tack back to the finish. Again keeping your air clear but working to the east. You’ll also want to watch the boats behind you in case a big shift comes in from the west. If the boats astern are being significantly lifted out over you, bite the bullet and tack back out to the west to get into the new wind. Just don’t go so far that you overstand the finish.
If the boats astern aren’t lifted, check the boats ahead to see if there’s a SE shift on the beach going up to Meadow Point, then plan your approach to the finish.
Today’s models have the TP 52’s around the course in just about four hours. The J-35’s are around in about 5.5 hours.
Tonight CYC Shilshole is hosting a chalk talk where I’ll discuss the race as well as what the models from late this afternoon are showing. ( Ed. Note, sign up here!)
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
