Author: Bruce Hedrick

Had a great time last night doing the Seattle Pre-Boat Show Connect Webinar with my friends Mark Bunzel from the Waggoner Cruising Guide and Peter Schrappen from the Northwest Marine Trade Association. We discussed what’s new at the National Weather Service and what will be changing this coming year with new forecasts and hopefully, improving accuracy. As a side note, as this will be a virtual Boat Show (very cool, I’ve seen a sample), if you purchase the Premium Ticket you will have access to all the Boat Show University Seminars and once again I’ll be doing an advanced two-hour seminar on the new high-resolution forecasting as well as Weather in the Pacific NW. Send me your questions in advance and I will work them into the Seminar.

Also, thank you to those of you who commented on my long-range forecast for a wetter and cooler winter week in light of five consecutive days of sunshine and some record high temps. I’m sticking with that forecast and you can see why with today’s Operational Sea Surface Temp Anomaly Chart. If you compare today’s chart with the one from two weeks ago you will notice an increased intrusion by the colder water moving from West to East along the equator. Combined with the jet stream becoming more zonal and moving south, this will bring more storm activity into the Pacific Northwest. It is also interesting to note that we still have a “blob” of warmer water off of our coast, not good.

The surface analysis chart for today shows a weak low moving across the middle part of Vancouver Island with a weak high-pressure system between this low and another weak low moving in a southeasterly direction off of the northern Vancouver Island. Off of Northern California, there is a stronger low-pressure system (994mb) with attached frontal systems that will move into our area late Saturday and early Sunday.

As usual, the more interesting chart is the 48 hour surface forecast chart which shows seven low-pressure systems coming across the Pacific with four of them packing winds of 50-knots or more. The 980mb low just north of Hawaii will intensify to 969mb over the next couple of days and impact our weather (wind and rain) early next week.

For this weekend, it looks like there won’t be much wind for the Snowbird Race at Shilshole or the Hope Island Race on Saturday. However, the RVicYC Fall Long Distance Race on Sunday should have plenty of pre-frontal SE breeze (15-20 knots) as long as they don’t have to sail towards Race Rocks. The problem will be that by mid-afternoon an onshore post-frontal breeze will try to work its’ way down the Strait of JdF creating an area of very light air where the two breezes meet.

Stay safe, stay healthy and enjoy the weekend!  

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

As usual, this November is providing us with some very interesting weather. In keeping with atmospheric norms, it is going to be a pretty wet month. So far, we’ve had 4.62” of rain while the average is 4.12” which puts our total for the year at 33.71” compared to 29.69” for an average year, so we are still 4” ahead for the year. And it’s only the 20^th of November with plenty of rain still to come.

Today’s satellite picture and surface analysis chart show that weak high pressure just off the central Oregon coast as well as a beautifully defined low-pressure system (1014mb) with an attached frontal system in the Pacific just to the west of San Francisco.

As we go into the weekend we should have a nice day tomorrow with little to no rain and maybe even a sun break or two. This will be the nicest day of the weekend as you see the next series of systems that are lining up to come into the Salish Sea courtesy of the jet stream which is very zonal and steering these systems right at us.

For boaters, this will mean light air on Saturday however after midnight Saturday the breeze will become a pre-frontal southeasterly  (12-18 knots) that will persist through Sunday. This will also mean more rain for the area and maybe more snow in the mountains.

This pattern will continue through the coming week with a chance of a break on Turkey Day. The perfect time for a quick trip to the boat to check mooring lines and fenders as this pattern will continue to bring strong southerlies into the area.

Enjoy the weekend, stay safe, and have a great Thanksgiving even if it is a somewhat reduced gathering. As long as I can remember, I don’t think I’ve ever had a Thanksgiving with just two people. That is however the plan for this year! 

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

This weekend looks like a perfect weekend for sailboat racing and with a very nice turnout for the Turkey Bowl. Racers won’t be disappointed, they will certainly be tired but they certainly won’t be disappointed. Just dress warmly and prepare for 15-20 from the south on Saturday and 15-25 on Sunday. Tides won’t be an issue because of the close-quarter racing.

Today’s satellite picture and surface analysis chart shows the front that came through early this morning and is now over Eastern Washington. The cool, unstable air behind the front shows up as those puffy white clouds off of our coast. I put a circle on the Sat Pic, the center of which is over Puget Sound. The clearing in the Straits of JdF shows the post-frontal westerly which right now is clocked at 50-knots at Race Rocks. This is the reason for Gale Warnings in the Straits, San Juans, and Admiralty Inlet. The onshore flow is very westerly so as it flows around the bottom of the Olympics this will keep the breeze southerly in the Central Sound.

The interesting part for racers will be the transition Saturday afternoon as another frontal system makes its approach to the Salish Sea. This will cause a shift from southerly to south-easterly over the race area. Depending on how close the course is set to Shilshole, there will be a SE shift near the breakwater pretty much all-day.

Sunday will bring a post-frontal SW to the race course and it could be breezy with 15-25-knots. This should last all day with very little if any SE near the breakwater. This will be apparent when you check the wind indicators on the boats in the marina when you arrive Sunday morning.

Next week looks like a repeat of this week with another series of strong low-pressure and attached frontal systems coming through the area. So even if you’re not getting out this weekend it would probably be a good idea to check mooring lines and fenders as they may have stretched or shifted with all this weather. It is after all winter in the Pacific NW!

Stay safe, enjoy the weekend and have a great time out there! 

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

First, congratulations to the group that put together this “Cruise” around Island County. Outstanding and you should have a great weekend.

The start on Saturday going south might be a bit challenging in the morning as the breeze will be light in Rosario Strait until a solid NW will fill in sometime around noon and then build to 15-25 from the NNW. The breeze will be strongest (25-35 NNE) in Bellingham Bay, Rosario Strait, and the Eastern Strait of JdF and that will be from 1800 Saturday until 0900 Sunday. The big boats might benefit from starting later since you can pick your starting time. Also, remember that the flood tide in Rosario will last until around noon with a max flood of 2.35 knots at 0748 hrs. Starting later with less anti-water and more wind could be beneficial.

Sunday will be quite a different story as the offshore flow will ease slightly overnight and sometime after midnight, the wind will begin to back in Boundary Pass and Haro Strait. If there is a starting sequence on Sunday morning there could well be 15-25 knots of NNE. This will ease to 15-20 from the N between 0900-1100 hrs. By around midday, a strong NW flow will come down the Strait of Georgia and fill in over the “cruising area”. Remember to stay in US waters as our neighbors to the north are taking a somewhat dim view of us these days and have impounded boats that have strayed over the border.

The prospect of a close reach from Turn Point to Patos in 15-25 knots of NW breeze has got to have the crews of Sir Isaac and Martha absolutely ecstatic. After Patos, the breeze will clock slightly to the NNE and hold in the 15-20 knot range all the way to Lawrence Point. From Lawrence to the finish the breeze will stay from the NNE but ease to 10-15 knots.

The surface charts show a very interesting feature for this time of the year and that is a very summer-like Pacific High (finally) that is at 1045mb and very round, indicating it should be a fairly stable feature in the North Pacific for at least a couple of days. The low-pressure system that blew through earlier this week is continuing to weaken and slide to the SE towards southern Oregon and northern California coast and maybe bringing a cold front to the fire-ravaged areas of California.

This nice but coolish weather should hold into next week just remember that November is traditionally our wettest month so we’ll enjoy this while we can.

Dress warmly this weekend as wind chills will be in the low 40’s and upper 30’s. Currently, in the eastern Strait of JdF, the outside temp is 48F and with 12-14 knots of NNW, the wind chill is 41F.

Stay safe, use those safety harnesses and tethers, and have a great weekend.            

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

It is going to be a spectacular weekend as the front that blew through this morning is now over Montana, leaving us with a strong onshore, post-frontal flow. This generated breeze to near 50-knots about mid-morning at Race Rocks however the gradient is now easing and this strong westerly will ease along with it.

By Saturday morning a weak high-pressure system (1028mb) will move over the area and as it shifts to the east, a weak offshore flow will develop in the Straits and this will lead to a nice northerly flow down the Sound for tomorrow. This should be perfect conditions for the STYC Race Your House Regatta with 10-knots of northerly for the start and then building to 15-18-knots by mid-afternoon.

Sunday the gradient will continue to ease bringing lighter conditions to the area. This will signal the advance of another frontal system coming in late Monday and into Election Day.

Today’s satellite pic shows just how fast that front is moving, now being well to the east of us. The surface charts show a weak high-pressure system (1023mb)off of the central California coast with a very impressive low (975mb) just south of the Aleutians. It is this system with its attached cold front that will bring us rain on Tuesday. The low-pressure system center will be driven into SE Alaska by the Jet Stream so we will be spared the worst of it.

As you can see from the surface charts and the 500mb charts, this will be the pattern for the rest of the week. We can expect another system following the Jet Stream and coming in towards the end of next week. Welcome to winter.

Be Safe, VOTE, and enjoy your weekend!   

Ed. Note: Happy Halloween!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

Grand Prix would have been a sailmakers benefit regatta had it been held starting today and continuing through the weekend with windchill being at or below freezing. Good times!

As you can see from the surface analysis chart and satellite picture, we have a strong frontal system passing over the area today with the southerly breeze still increasing and barometer continuing to drop as of 1300hrs. The big change will arrive this evening as a very cold Fraser River outflow will develop about mid-evening tonight. This will bring strong northeasterly winds of 30-40 knots with higher gusts to the Salish Sea especially in Whatcom County and the San Juan and Gulf Islands. NE winds of 25-30-knots will extend down Admiralty Inlet and then ease to 20-25-knots in the Central and South Sound through Saturday and into Sunday.  

The main reason for this cold area is an unseasonably strong high-pressure system (1044mb) in central BC. The jet stream will gradually move this in a southeasterly direction bringing very cold air and breeze into the central US.

The surface forecast for Sunday shows an easing of the pressure gradient over the area with lighter air and slightly warmer temperatures coming in early next week. The 500mb charts show a more zonal flow developing with the jet stream remaining well to the north of us.

As a result of a question I got this week, I am also including a current sea surface temperature anomaly chart which shows the blob of warm water off of our coast as well as a dramatic display of the La Niña phenomena currently occurring along the equator and is now starting to affect our weather. Great news for skiers and boarders as we should have a colder and wetter winter with La Niña in play. The bad news will be next spring and summer as those tend to be warmer and drier.

Stay warm, stay healthy, mask-up, and VOTE!

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)

Looks like there’s a great turnout for the Sloops’ Fall Regatta, unfortunately, it will be a case of you should have been here yesterday since we’ve had a steady 15-20 knots from the south since early this morning and it looks like it will increase slowly this afternoon as a strong post-frontal breeze fills from the WSW. In the Strait of JdF, this will bring Small Craft Advisories and Gale warnings which will last until about midnight.

Today’s surface chart shows a moderate high-pressure system off the coast (1032mb) that extends inland to Eastern Washington and Oregon with a weak low-pressure system to the north of Vancouver Island. This combination is what will cause the strong onshore, post-frontal flow down the Straits.

By tomorrow this pressure gradient will be gone leaving the area with light and variable wind for Saturday with the possibility of a weak drainage NE in the morning and a weak SSW breeze late Saturday afternoon.

Sunday morning in the Sound will start with a 15-20-knot pre-frontal SE as another weak system comes ashore. This breeze ease by mid-day and become light on Sunday afternoon. 

At least on Saturday if there is any breeze there won’t be much tide to worry about.

Tidal Current at West Point

0948       Max Flood             .12 knots

1054       Slack

1454       Max Flood             .9 knots

1724       Slack

Yes, I know this looks weird so I have attached the chart below to show you why there are two consecutive flood tides.

Have a great weekend and be safe.

Bruce Hedrick

Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)