It’s not very often we get this weather configuration this late in the spring. However, in this era of Climate Change, we have learned to expect just about anything. As you can see from today’s surface chart and sat pic, we’ve got a series of systems that will bring very November-like conditions to the Salish Sea. While we are only about .3” of rain behind for the month of May, we could get a months worth of rain in the next five days.
Take a look at today’s sat pic and then the sequence of surface forecast charts. Look at the 48hr surface forecast chart and you’ll notice that the fronts are starting to line up in the Gulf of Alaska and are aimed at BC and SE Alaska. The tail of these fronts will drag across our area and they have moisture in them. The next interesting chart is the 72-hour surface chart which shows the reason for all this moisture; we will be visited by Post Tropical Cyclone Ewiniar. Remember, it was a visit from Post Tropical Cyclone Freda that caused the Oct 12th, Columbus Day Storm, in 1962 in the Pacific NW. Still the most destructive storm to ever hit the area. Having said that, it will be breezy and wet but not at that level of damage.
As far as the forecast for the weekend goes, the combination of the atmosphere trying to warm and the jet stream still south of our area means forecasts will be jumbled as in no three agree. The other factor is that as our coastal buffer zone is getting greener as it normally does in the spring and with longer days has more heat capacity. This makes the buffer zone stronger and increases the ability of the zone to diminish the strength of fronts as they come ashore. This is what makes forecasting so difficult this time of the year.
This will make for a very interesting Blake Island Race tomorrow. Didn’t we just race some long-distance race, last weekend? Anyway., if you run the models the fast one has us in 5-18 knts of S-SSE breeze for the entire course. The GFS and UW-MM5 have us starting in a SE just as a northerly starts down the Sound. Then a convergence zone develops from Shilshole to Alki, YUK!
So, if we go with the fast hrrx model this is what it might look like:
0900 SE 5-10
1000 SSE 8-12
1100 SSE 8-15
1200 SSE 10-18
1300 SSE 8-15
1400 S-SSE 8-15
1500 S-SSE 8-12
1600 SSE 8-12
The other models show about ½ this. At least the tidal current at West Point won’t exceed about .4 knts.
The crystal ball for the above model has Zvi around the course in 2hrs 38 min, TP-52s in 2hrs 48 min, J-109 3hrs 30 min, and J-105 in 3hrs 38 min.
For the rest of the Salish Sea expect light conditions in Admiralty Inlet, the San Juan Islands, and the South Sound.
Sunday will be a different story as the stronger of these fronts approaches the coast expect a pre-frontal SE breeze (and rain) over the area and expect it to build over the day. This front will arrive late Sunday and early Monday with another front expected on Tuesday.
Have a great weekend, stay safe, and stay warm. The better weather is coming.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)