It should be a pretty good weekend for racing with the usual caveat that that will depend upon where you’re sailing. The other big news is that in addition to a very active hurricane season in the Atlantic with some spillover to the Pacific, we had a spectacular volcanic eruption in Indonesia which was captured on satellite, and the State of Washington has finally declared a drought emergency for the State because of our meager snowpack and lack of spring rains. For April we’ve only had .4” of an inch of rain compared to an average on this date of 2.07”. For the year we’ve had 12.91” compared to an average of 15.78”. Combining this with the forecast of a hotter and drier than normal summer, and an increasing possibility of a La Niña event, this could make for a not-so-much fun season. This would go for not only the usual areas in the Cascades and Eastern Washington but also around the Olympic Mountains.
At least this weekend should be relatively pleasant with the best day being Saturday with a high near 70˚F and the rain holding off until around sunset. Sunday will be 12˚ to 15˚ degrees cooler with cloudy conditions.
What does this mean for wind? As I said, it will depend on where you’re sailing. The reason is apparent from the Sat Pics and the Surface Analysis and Forecast charts. We are having a beautiful day today however not far off the coast is the next frontal system. Typically, as these fronts approach the coast they tend to weaken and fall apart as they interact with the coastal buffer zone. This will happen this weekend however on Saturday there will be a tightening of the pressure gradient as the front comes onshore. Most areas will start with light air except in the Eastern Strait of JdF where on Saturday morning we’ll have a prefrontal SE breeze 15-25 knots.
In the Central Sound, we’ll have light air of 5 knots or less from the SSW until about 1300 hrs when the breeze will build to 5-8 knots from the SSW. By 1400 to 1500hrs the breeze will build to about 10 knots. By 1600 to 1700hrs the breeze will build to SW of 15 knots. By 1800 hrs it could be 15-20 knots of SW.
In the South Sound, you can expect about the same progression but with about 5 knots less breeze.
By 1800 hours in the Eastern Strait of JdF, a solid onshore flow will develop bringing gale warnings to the area for westerlies of 25-35 knots. Those conditions will start to ease by 2100-2200hrs. Don’t take that as a trend as there will continue to be pulses of strong westerlies coming down the Strait through the day on Sunday.
In the Central and South Sound conditions for Sunday will remain in the 5-10 knots of southerly at least until around noon when the westerly in the Straits will begin to try and fill down the Sound. Expect a northerly in the Central Sound of 10-15 knots by around 1400 hours. This will ease through the rest of the afternoon.
Enjoy the weekend just don’t expect the warm temps to last as the jet stream is staying south and becoming more zonal. This will keep the temps on the cool side for at least the next 10 days with very little measurable precip.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)