Every once and a while things come together for what should be a great race. Such is the case for Winter Vashon tomorrow. We have a warm front passing over the area now to be followed by a cold front early tomorrow morning (2-4 am). With frontal passage, a strong onshore flow will develop over the area with gale warnings along the coast and down the Strait of JdF. There will also be a strong onshore flow through the Chehalis Gap and into the South Sound. This will bring 15-25 knots of southwest wind to the racecourse for most of Saturday.
Today we have a moderate onshore flow in the Straits and through the Gap however, this will change to a prefrontal southeasterly later this evening. For the race tomorrow, expect 15-25 knots of WSW breeze in the starting area. As you sail into Colvos Passage the wind will back to the SW and ease slightly however it should still be a hull speed run to the top mark. As you sail north in Colvos, the puffs will tend to be headers so this will require good coordination between the driver and the trimmers. Don’t worry about getting cold, everyone will either be trimming hard or hiking hard on this leg and the next one.
Before you get to the top mark, start thinking about what headsail you’ll be using for the close reach from the top mark to Point Robinson. You will also want to have your barber hauler set up before you round the top mark. The breeze will probably be in the 12-18 knot range on this leg, however, at Pt Robinson expect the breeze to build to 16-25 knots. So, at the top mark set the jib in the port groove so you change down on starboard tack, do a quick tack to get the bigger sail down on port, and then tack back to starboard once you feel the breeze start to ease as you get closer to Maury Island. The puffs as they come over Vashon and Maury Island will tend to be lifts on starboard tack so favor the west side of the rhumb line from Pt Robinson to the finish. As you get closer to the south end of the islands, the breeze will tend to clock from the SW to WSW maybe even to the point of allowing you to barber haul the lead out for the last bit to the finish.
The weather charts, especially the 500MB upper-level charts and satellite pic provide a very clear picture of what we can look forward to this coming week. One weather system after another with plenty of rain and wind. While November may have been quieter and slightly dryer than normal, that will all change over the next two weeks. For November we had 5.71” of rain compared to an average of 6.31” so just .6” below average. Year to date we’ve had 26.42” compared to an average of 33.62” so 7.2” below normal. In the first two weeks of December, we could easily get what we had for the entire month of November. The real problem with this pattern is that the freezing level will rise substantially to almost 7,000ft and this will diminish the current snowpack and lead to lowland flooding in the usual areas. Should be a very interesting month for weather.
Have a safe, great race, and enjoy the always superb hospitality of TYC!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)