I guess the pictures of a loaded barge sailing (literally) into the Bell Harbor Pier are enough to confirm just how much breeze there was on Elliott Bay. Kudos to the West Seattle Water Taxi captain, who did the right thing and with his actions kept the Seattle Aquarium and the Big Wheel from major damage. It also serves to illustrate just how valuable the NDBC Graphs can be if you are thinking about heading out on the water. In the graph, you can see the pressure dropping very rapidly (the green line) and just when it hits the bottom you can see we had a peak gust and windspeed of 30-35 knots at West Point. These graphs are a great way to spot trends and when the graph is steep, you know we are in for some weather.
Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic give you a classic picture of what we have coming for tomorrow. The low in the center of the sat pic is the 984MB low with an attached warm front that will come through the area tonight followed by a cold front that will come through on Saturday. This low is moving off to the NE as our weak string of high-pressure systems inland still have the power to deflect this deepening low into BC. Notice also that this 984MB low will intensify to 976MB overnight. As it hits the coastal buffer zone on Sunday it will finally start to weaken and dissipate.
The 500MB chart shows the jet stream with a SW to NE flow coming ashore near Cape Flattery. As the weekend goes on, the Jet Stream will sag to the south where by Tuesday the Jet Stream will be coming ashore south of San Francisco. This will allow for cooler temperatures and another storm system to come into the Pacific NW early next week.
Last week we mentioned that November is typically the wettest month of the year and the way we starting this year certainly seems to reinforce that thinking. While it’s only the third of November we are almost an inch ahead of the average for this date. In some ways this is good, however, with the warmer than normal temps, we are not yet building snowpack.
As I said at the start of this missive, we are going to have breeze tomorrow. It doesn’t matter if you’re doing Herron Island in the South Sound, the STYC Fall Regatta, the Anacortes Commodores Cup, or the Kits Bluenose Regatta on English Bay. You can and should anticipate sailing in 10-25 knots of S-SE breeze with higher gusts. This means PDF’s, safety harnesses, and jack lines are all on and in place before you leave the dock. When it comes to flying the spinnaker in that kind of breeze, just remember that staying upright is fast, and going sideways is slow. If you’re not comfortable with that kind of breeze, just wing the jib out and watch the carnage develop around you. Live to fight another day. (Ed. Note: I’ve seen none other than Bill Buchan wing the jib out while others were wiping out, only to lead at the leeward mark. Doesn’t always work that way, but can. KH)
Have a great weekend and BE SAFE out there.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)