Another crazy week of weather and not just in the Pacific NW. The Midwest is about to see the first big blast of cold weather while Mexico continues to clean up after four hurricanes. Don’t look now but a fifth hurricane is forming off Guatemala in conditions very conducive for hurricane development.
For the Salish Sea, the best day for sailing will be today as we have a strong NE flow coming out of the Fraser River Valley because of a strong(1040MB), multi-centered high-pressure system extending from almost Anchorage to Puget Sound. Hence the breeze and the cold temps. Check also the 500Mb Charts as it still has that exaggerated bend going from just north of Hawaii, over the eastern part of the Aleutians, to well north in Alaska before curving back south and then coming ashore in southern Oregon.
By tomorrow, the pressure gradient will ease over the area however the dominant weather feature will be a stalled occluded front running down the coast of North America from about Seward, Alaska to just north of San Francisco. The inland high-pressure system will also drift to the SE and strengthen to 1043MB. This will bring light air to the Salish Sea and start the development of strong Santa Ana breezes in central and southern California,
This pattern will persist into Sunday with a slight tightening of the pressure gradient over the area. Being the Pacific NW and fall, these conditions won’t last as late Tuesday another frontal system will make its way into the Salish Sea. Don’t worry, it will be dry for trick or treating! From Wednesday on, expect typical typically wet conditions for the Pacific Northwest. November is, after all, typically the wettest month of the year. As a note, going into our El Niño winter it looks like we will end October only about .2” below our average rainfall. A good start.
For wind this weekend, expect light conditions in the central Sound until about early afternoon tomorrow when the weak northerly will build to 10-15 knots out of the north, not the northwest. This will hold until about mid-afternoon Sunday when we could get about 15-20 knots of NW breeze in the central Sound only. The rest of the Salish Sea will see generally light conditions.
Have a great weekend.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)