Another week of record high temps over the Salish Sea, while the Midwest and East Coast prepare for the first blast of winter and a late-season hurricane with plenty of rain will hit Cabo tomorrow before crossing the Sea of Cortez and curving into the State of Sinaloa. This is just a preview of how crazy this winter could be.
Yesterday’s surface analysis chart shows our weak (1026MB) and amorphous Pacific High at about 48N 143W with a weak low (1014MB) just east of the Cascades. Yesterday’s sat pic shows a weak and disintegrating front moving onshore today. As you can see from the surface charts, the pressure gradient will remain weak over the weekend. As is the normal progression in the Pacific NW, the first day after frontal passage will see a weak ridge of high-pressure rebuild over the area and bring the best wind. This ridge will progressively weaken over the weekend bringing lighter wind. The wind will be lighter in the morning then as the day progresses a slightly stronger onshore flow will develop over the inland waters. The best wind for this weekend will probably be in the Strait of Georgia, especially on the west side of the Strait.
This bodes well for WVYC Pumpkin Regatta which will see remarkably consistent winds of 4-12 knots from the WNW for Saturday with the possibility of a slightly stronger breeze in the mid to late afternoon. Sunday will see lighter conditions with the wind going from the NW to the WSW in the afternoon but probably staying at less than 8 knots.
For the STYC Regattas, the problem will be if they try to use the Z mark on the west side of the Sound against the north side of Port Madison. With a prevailing north wind of 10 knots or less in the central Sound, the breeze at the Z mark will be lighter and if boats have difficulty in there, that will just chop up what breeze there is even more.
The other charts of interest this weekend are the upper level or 500MB charts which show an exaggerated meridional flow. By the 24th of Oct, the jet stream will travel from 30N to 64N before curving back south to 45N and coming ashore near the mouth of the Columbia. This is what will bring cooler temps to the Salish Sea next week with the possibility of some light, mid-week rain. The last week of October could be fairly wet, but we’ll see.
Enjoy the weekend!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)