Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 30 June, 1, 2, 3, and 4th of July. Spectacular Weather Ahead!

So much for the old saying that summer in Seattle doesn’t start until the 5th of July. We are in for some great weather for the foreseeable future. Plus with the diurnal breeze filling down the Straits in the afternoon, evening sailing will be great in the central Sound. Witness the last two Downtown Sailing Series races in Elliott Bay. No wind until about 1600 hrs then a nice N-NE breeze fills in and builds to 12-15 knots. Everyone gets around the course in about 1-1.5 hours so plenty of time to enjoy the great post-race party. Then by sunset, the breeze drops so the trip back to Shilshole is pleasant and not too cold.

This is the good news. The bad news is that with all this great weather there is no rain in sight and the fire danger will definitely be increasing. All the more reason to spend more time on the water.  Then there’s the weather in the rest of the country, we are so lucky. At least at this point. With the fire season well underway in Canada, we are just a slight shift in this pattern away from smoke coming our way. Keep your fingers crossed. 

The other interesting part of this is that TransPac is just getting started and as usual with the staggered start sometimes you eat the bear and sometimes the bear eats you. The smaller boats and the cruising boats are well underway and enjoying some high-speed close reaching. The big boats start tomorrow and it will be lighter for them so no records this year. The other interesting fact is that there are no real rocketships entered this year.and only ONE TP-52 is making the run to the Islands. You have to wonder why?

Today’s surface chart shows a weak L-shaped Pacific High (1026MB) with quite a gap in the isobars surrounding the high. The other interesting feature on today’s charts are the not one but two hurricanes off of Mexico, Adrian and Beatriz. Adrain will weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone not presenting any threat to the TransPac fleet. Beatriz will weaken as it moves up the Mexican coast from Z-town to Cabo and it will do damage to those coastal communities with winds near 80 knots and heavy rainfall.

As we approach the 4th, the Pacific High will only build to about 1030MB and still not assume a round, more stable shape. It will remain weak and out of position for at least another 10 days. This will allow the TP fleet to sail a shorter course and should make the delivery back to the coast a little easier.

For the Pacific NW the strongest winds, 15-30 knots, will be tonight in the Central and Eastern part of the Strait of JdF.  The rest of the weekend will see some residual breeze come down the Sound as well as swing up into the SJ Islands. The breeze will tend to light in the mornings and then gradually build in the afternoon. Also, while the air temps will be on the warm side, the water temps are still cold, and hypothermia is still a real possibility. By Tuesday and Wednesday, a thermally induced surface trough of low pressure will move up from California and Oregon. This will weaken the onshore flow and reduce the diurnal breeze over the area.

Enjoy the weekend, stay safe, and use the sunblock!   

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