Once again, it’s going to be a very interesting weekend. The doom and gloom forecasts certainly help to drive ratings for the TV weather nogs but the reality may be something quite different because the models are not in agreement about the system we have coming ashore right now. The sat pic, Doppler radar, and surface analysis all show an occluded front headed our way, and the sat pic in particular shows quite an area of cool, unstable air behind the front. Current readings from Destruction Island on the coast show the barometric pressure is rising and the post-frontal wind building into the 30-knot range. It is always interesting to watch what happens as these fronts encounter the land and the Olympic Mountains. Typically they weaken and slow down however, we shall see.
The overall weather picture from the surface analysis chart shows a moderate low-pressure system (984MB) just off of Sitka, with a weak trough of low-pressure just inland from SE Alaska to Oregon. There is also a weak high-pressure system (1010MB) just on the other side of the Cascades and a series of weak highs (1022-1026MB) in the Pacific. The jet stream and upper air chart for today still show a mostly zonal flow with a cut-off upper-level low just north of Hawaii and the jet stream coming ashore in LA. All of these will keep our temps below normal and keep us in a rainy pattern for today and tomorrow.
It’s the surface forecast chart for tomorrow which shows the pressure gradient easing as the front has passed. Some models have the wind over the central Sound easing to the 5-12 knot range while the UW MM5 model shows a post-frontal flow coming through the Chehalis Gap and up the Sound in the 15-18 knot range and then building to 20-25 in the early afternoon before a northerly of 12-16 knots fills down the Sound in the mid-afternoon. This will keep tacticians and trimmers very busy and help to keep them warm in the cold and the rain.
Tidal Current at West Point won’t be an issue tomorrow.
0700 Slack
1218 Max Fld .32 knts
1430 Slack
1542 Max Ebb .14 knts
1730 Slack
With a consistent southerly for today and tomorrow as well as a fair amount of freshwater being dumped into the Sound by the Duwamish and the Ship Canal may result in a wind-generated surface current flowing to the north and negating the weak flood. Something to watch especially in the neighborhood of the West Point and Meadow Point buoys.
So how do we sail the race tomorrow? Most likely the usual topographical shifts will still be in play along the east side of the Sound. So getting a clean start and finding a lane of clear air up to West Point will be critical. At West Point, it will be time to head across the Sound and get to the west side to be in a position to take advantage of the puffs that will be lifts on starboard tack as you go up the Bainbridge shore. Watch getting in too close to the Bainbridge shore as it can be lighter in there.
As you approach the Rock you’ll probably set up to do a port pole bear-away set so you can avoid the rocks just north of Blakely Rock. If the wind starts to lighten up, it’s time to gybe and aim for Meadow Point. Near West Point, you’ll want to start trying to figure out how to be the inside boat for the rounding at Meadow Point and discussing what kind of drop you’re going to do so you can have everything clear to tack away from the beach. It gets shallow very quickly in there so be ready and make sure the boats around you know that you’re going to need shore room.
Once on the beat to the finish, you will need to figure out how to get to the favored end of the finish line. If it’s the boat end of the line get back to the beach so you can tack to port and lay the committee boat end. If it’s the buoy end of the line hold port from Meadow Point until you can tack to starboard to get to the buoy.
Have fun, stay safe, stay warm, and enjoy the race.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)