It is still a cooler and more unstable spring and that will be seen as we race tomorrow. As far as rainfall goes, we are only 1” behind for the month however we are 5.1” behind for the year. Unlike California which is ahead for just about everything. Plus they are going to get another rainy and breezy event on the 28th when another compact low-pressure system comes ashore near San Francisco bringing rain to the Coast and Central Valley and more snow to the Sierra Nevada Range. See the surface forecast chart for 28 March as well as the 500MB charts.
Today’s surface analysis and sat pic show the surface trough of low pressure moving inland with a weak high-pressure system off of Northern CA. In the sat pic, note the trough along the coast and the cool, unstable air behind the trough. As the high builds offshore, the pressure gradient will ease over the Salish Sea. By tomorrow morning a weak trough will drift inland while a secondary lobe of high-pressure builds inland over northern CA and southern OR. This will have the effect of keeping a predominately southerly flow over the area for tomorrow while a weak onshore flow will develop down the Strait of JdF. This may bring a weak northerly flow into the North Sound and Admiralty Inlet late tomorrow, it just won’t last.
For the general race area tomorrow we’ll probably start with a nice southerly of 8-12 knots. This will hold until about mid-day when the gradient will ease and the breeze south of West Point will ease to 3-5 knots but remain in the 8-10 knot range north of West Point. By about 1400hrs the breeze will ease to 3-5 knots from Alki to Edmonds. By about 1500hrs the breeze will be light and variable from Everett to Alki. In other words, we would hope to be finished by 1400-1500hrs.
The other interesting feature tomorrow will be the tidal currents at West Point:
0748 Slack
0930 Max Ebb .37 knts
1212 Slack
1730 Max Flood .84 knots
Presuming an upwind start, that puts us against a weak ebb and if we go to Blakely Rock or Duwamish Head and hopefully nothing further south, we will then have to fight a building flood as the breeze drops. As I said, the “Best Course for the Day” will be a challenge. At least the rain will be light and the temps coolish. YUK!
Sunday will be much the same except up in the Straits where there will be a pre-frontal SE.
Stay warm, stay safe, and enjoy the weekend!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)