As our winter weather returns to “normal” we can expect some great sailing this weekend. What does “normal” mean? As far as precip goes we are at 33.72” for the year compared to an average of 35.14” so only 1.42” below normal but 6.31” behind where we were a year ago. The La Niña three-peat isn’t exactly racking up the numbers we’d expect except in the mountains where the snowpack is now over 100% of normal in the Cascades and Olympics, which is good unless you’re trying to dry over the passes.
Today’s Surface Analysis Chart shows a well-developed surface low-pressure system (983MB) just off the coast with an attached frontal system that will move through the Salish Sea late this afternoon and into Saturday morning. This will bring storm-force winds with higher gusts to the coast and Strait of JdF and gale-force winds to the San Juan Islands and Admiralty Inlet. Note the NWS Regional Forecast Chart. There is a second, slightly weaker low-pressure system (989MB) off of Sitka that will join the stronger low by tomorrow. This consolidated system will stay off the coast and slide south to bring more welcome rain and snow to northern California and the Sierra Nevada’s.
By Sunday our wall of inland high-pressure will rebuild over lower BC and this keep our weather relatively benign for the next 7-10 days. The cost of this will be below freezing temps at night for the same period. This also means no lowland or mountain snow however any runoff on the roads will freeze and create icy conditions for most mornings. Interesting commutes for sure.
As far as sailing this weekend, our friends in Victoria will be glad they’re racing on Sunday and not on Saturday because Saturday in the Straits it will be howling from the SE. Sunday they can expect a chilly 10-18 knots from the Fraser River Valley.
For the Snowbird Race in the Central Sound expect 15-20 from the SE in the morning, easing to 10-15 from the S in the afternoon. There will even be wind in the South Sound for the Hope Island Race just slightly less. Oh, and it will be a rainy Saturday over the entire area.
Dress appropriately, stay safe, and have a great weekend!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)