Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 2, 3, 4, and 5 December. Winter Vashon! The full course, finally!

So when was the last race that wasn’t shortened at the top end of Vashon Island? Who cares! The point here is that this weekend looks like a Winter Vashon from the old days. Clear the snow off the deck, have a hot buttered rum (HBR), rig the boat, have an HBR, add another layer of woolies under the foul wx gear, have an HBR, and head for the starting line! Then, while on the race constantly check for hypothermia, especially on the upwind leg, and add HBR’s as necessary. Set the spinnaker at the top mark and have a nice semi-breezy run down the finish. Cross the finish line, de-rig the boat, have an HBR, head up to the fabulous hospitality of TYC, and swap lies with your fellow competitors. As I said, those were the good old days. Now in the age of high-performance boats and crews, we wait until after the race for an HBR while still enjoying the great hospitality at the Club! During the race, we use Chinese hot and sour soup to stay warm.

Our wacky winter weather continues as we start the month of December. We’ve had an early winter snow flurry and a drier-than-normal November, and we are still below normal rainfall for the year. A quick glance at today’s surface analysis chart, the 500MB chart, and the sat pic provide us with a great visual as to why this is happening. We have a weak low (997MB) offshore of the Olympic Peninsula that is moving to the south, not coming ashore, with a well-defined cold front as well as a stalled occluded front right over the top of us. Inland from us, we have a series of high-pressure systems from central Alaska to southern California which are continuing to block or weaken any systems that might head our way. The interesting feature on the 500MB chart is the wild meander in the jet stream which takes a due north path at about 163Wand goes north to about 62Nbefore it does a 180 and dives south 40N before turning to the east and coming ashore south of San Francisco. The combination of the wall of high-pressure systems and the path of the jet stream will keep the low-pressure system off of our coast headed to south and the attached cold front will bring much-needed rain to the central valley of CA and snow to the Sierra Nevada’s.

As you work your way through the charts, the upper air charts get even more interesting on the 4^th of Dec when that meander to the north becomes an upper-level cut-off high-pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska, you don’t see that very often. On the 6^th of Dec that cut-off high disappears while a new and intense upper-level cutoff low-pressure system forms to the NW of Hawaii. In the past, these systems have brought heavy rains and flooding to Kauai so we will be watching that as the week goes on.

So what does all of this mean for Winter Vashon? Pretty much it’s all good! We will start with a nice breeze of 8-18 knots from the ENE. With breeze being topographically forced down Colvos Passage, the breeze will ease to 5-12 from the NNE. Since you’ll be sailing up Colvos during the big flood of the day current won’t be much of a factor in Colvos. You will want to focus on being on starboard as you come off of the Vashon side of the Passage. The temptation will be to hit the Vashon side hard however since the breeze will be from the ENE-NE it will be possible to get too close to Vashon and into light air. Starboard tacks will be the long tacks so you’d like to come into the Vashon side on port south of the points so when you tack to starboard you’ll be sailing the lifting puffs as you work your way north. Once you get to about mid-channel on starboard look for a knock to tack back to port and go back to the Vashon shore. Tacticians and trimmers will be busy and will have no trouble staying warm.

The breeze will build slightly as you get to the top mark so you should be rounding in 12-16 knots of NNE so you’ll be sailing south on a port gybe. As you get past Pt Robinson you may want to delay gybing to starboard to make sure you stay in the breeze. From Pt. Robinson to the bottom end of both Maury and Vashon it will be lighter next to the islands. If you’re on starboard and you find yourself lifted above the finish and in less wind gybe immediately and get back into breeze.

As the day progresses and the offshore low-pressure system drifts to the south, the inland high-pressure systems over southern BC will build and this will bring a stronger NE-ENE breeze (15-20 knts)  to the race course. There may still be light air patches from Robinson south as this develops. Tend to favor the rhumbline and stay slightly to the east of rhumb. By early evening, the breeze should be fairly solid from the NE.  

Have a great race, stay warm, be safe and keep the AIS on so I can track you.