Our spring of wacky weather continues with more rain and cooler than normal temps. Then we have the Race to the Straits sailing in three distinct zones of weather: Central Sound, Admiralty Inlet, and the Eastern end of the Straits. Each offers its own particular (peculiar) set of challenges. What could possibly go wrong?
Since, once again, the models are not in agreement with when and where the wind will come from except for the Eastern Straits, more on that later. The tidal current models are, however, constant.
Bush Point Tidal Currents
7 May
0724 Max Flood 1.05 knots
1000 Slack
1318 Max Ebb 1.98 knots
1612 Slack
1918 Max Flood 2.13 knots
8 May
0600 Slack
0836 Max Flood 1.05 knots
1106 Slack
1418 Max Ebb 1.70 knots
1706 Slack
2012 Max Flood 2.02 knots
Today’s surface analysis chart shows a very weak high-pressure system over the Salish Sea and an approaching weak and fast-moving low-pressure system with an attached cold front. Our Pacific High is set up just north of Hawaii and south of a “normal” position. While the High is rounding up which would normally indicate some stability in the High, it is also still on the weak side at 1030MB.
After the front moves through, a strong onshore flow will bring NW breeze down the coast, down the Straits, and through the Chehalis Gap. The flow through the Gap will keep the breeze out of the SSW in the Central and South Sound until midday Saturday. Then, as the flow develops down the Strait, expect breezy conditions in the Eastern Straits to push down Admiralty inlet and into the Central Sound starting about midday. The breeze from Fowlweather Bluff(FWB) to the south end of Marrowstone will tend to be from the NNW at 10-20 knots with the breeze backing to the WNW and building into the 15-25 knots range the closer you get to the Marrowstone Light. This breeze will hold into mid-evening.
Since this is a short-handed event if you’re sailing with conventional headsails and if you will have to do a sail change, think about hoisting the big sail to start the beat from Pt. No Pt. in the port groove. You’ll want to hold starboard tack from FWB to Marrowstone and do your sail change while on starboard, tacking to port near Marrowstone. Even though the tide will be ebbing you will want to be near the Marrowstone shore since the water will be smoother and you will position yourself to be on the inside of the coming lift as you go up the island.
After rounding Marrowstone Light, hold port tack until you can tack and be aimed at the south end of Port Townsend. This will get you into the smoother water east of town so you can do a port tack approach to the finish and avoid sailing in the mix-master of the main channel of Admiralty Inlet. Do remember that with the strong westerly, the flood will start sooner than the forecast of 1600 hrs and that will help to flatten the seas.
Sunday will be a completely different story as the area prepares for the next low-pressure system and front which will pass quickly to the south of the Salish Sea. Once it does pass, the onshore flow will once again come down the Straits however that probably won’t happen until late Sunday afternoon or early evening. This probably means light and variable winds for the racecourse and with the slack at 1100 hours, you’ll be fighting the ebb until almost 1700 hours. Getting to the FWB buoy could be challenging.
The good news in all of this? Sunday won’t be as wet as Saturday.
Note also the 500MB Charts as the Jet Stream continues to come in well south of the Pacific NW. This will continue to keep us wet and cool through the coming week. The 8 and 10 May Charts are particularly interesting with the development of an upper-level, cut-off low-pressure system just to the north and west of Hawaii. With nothing to push it around, it should be fun to watch especially if you have a trip to Hawaii planned. In the past, if these systems drift south to the islands, they have brought record rainfall to Kauai(44” in 24 hours)and 100+mph winds to the top of the Big Island.
Be safe, and have a great weekend.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)