Our weird and wonderful weather continues even as NOAA forecasts a third straight year of La Niña, so cooler and wetter than normal. Let’s hope, as the rest of the country will not be so lucky this summer. On to sailboat racing this weekend!
Just as the NWS divides the Salish into different areas; Puget Sound, Admiralty Inlet, Eastern Strait of JdF, etc etc, it turns out there’s a very good reason for this and we will all be witnesses to these divisions this weekend. The models do not agree on what we’ll have and that is because it’s springtime in Putrid Sound.
Unfortunately, what we can agree on is tidal currents so let’s look at Admiralty Inlet, Bush Point.
Tidal Currents
0824 Max Ebb 2.85 knts
1124 Slack
1500 Max Flood 3.41 knts
1824 Slack
2100 Max Ebb 1.75 knts
2330 Slack
Sunday
0254 Max Flood 2.36 knts
0530 Slack
0854 Max Ebb 3.89 knts
The bad news is that the time of the strongest tide in Admiralty (!500hrs, 3.41 knts) will roughly coincide with the time of the least amount of wind. When was the last time you practiced anchoring?
The surface analysis charts and sat pic provide a great overview of the dilemma headed our way. We have a very weak frontal system attached to a very weak low-pressure system just off the coast that will move through the area late tonight and into early Saturday. This will bring a strong SE pre-frontal breeze to the coast and the Eastern end of the Strait of JdF. There just won’t be much in the inland waters. One of the problems is that the weak low will remain stalled off of Cape Flattery keeping a SE breeze in the Strait and a weak onshore flow through the Chehalis Gap which will keep the southerly light in the Sound.
As the front begins to dissipate over the Sound around 0900 hours (start time) the breeze will also begin to drop from 5-8 in the area from Shilshole to PNP. The breeze will not be consistent in strength with Puget Sound potentially looking a little like swiss cheese. By about midday, the breeze will become light and variable over the racecourse. If you’re on the long course, and you can get around Pt No Pt and Foulweather Bluff before the tide starts cranking against you, you will probably want to aim for the bottom end of Marrowstone, where you can work the beach and be in position for the westerly which will eventually come down the Strait.
If you’re on the Short Course, you will probably work the back eddy below Pt No Pt and then do your best to get across the Sound to Useless Bay so you can work that back eddy up to Double Bluff. It’s also easier to anchor in Useless Bay.
By 1700 there should be a NW breeze of 5-10 from Pt No Pt(PNP) to Smith Island and this should hold through the evening hours until around midnight. From PNP south to Shilshole NW of 10-15 holding until about 2100 hours when the ENE of 5-8 knots will hold through the early morning hours before it drops to less than 5 knots.
This race will drive tacticians and trimmers crazy. The very hazy crystal ball has ZVI around the course finishing at 0615 hours Sunday. On the short course, I have the Legendary Boomerang finishing at 0145 hours Sunday.
Temps won’t be bone-chilling but it will be wet Saturday morning. Sunday will be a much nicer day, just perfect for drying out sails and the boat.
Be safe and have a great race.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)