Looks like it could be a nice weekend to be on the water, not so much wind but not any rain until Sunday evening. High temps will be in the 60s both days. Both days will start cloudy but burning off to mixed sun and clouds. Use that sunblock!
So far this month we are only .5 inches of rain behind for the month which isn’t huge plus we are still 1.5” ahead of the average for today and about .5” ahead of last year which was really wet. The other good news is that we are at or above 100% of snowpack in the Cascades, which is similar to last year until we got that early blast of heat which really knocked the snowpack down in a hurry. It could still happen this year but at least the long-range predictions for the Salish Sea are showing average temps and below average precip for May, June, and July.
The rest of the west is not so lucky, especially our neighbors to the south. See the Drought Monitor Map for today. You have to wonder how far off Zero Water day is for Oregon, California, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico. The other area of concern is the drought in wine country in Washington, now that’s a problem! At least the ocean is staying cool off our coast and that will help the salmon recovery efforts.
Today’s surface analysis map has a very weak (1028MB) Pacific High setting up at 32N and 145W which is way south but at about the right longitude. After the unsettled weather yesterday, we now have a weak ridge of high pressure trying to build over the area with another low-pressure setting up in the Gulf of Alaska. We also have a trough of low-pressure running south from the Salish Sea and then offshore before it curves back inland at San Francisco.
Tomorrow a weak lobe of high pressure will build over the area as another frontal system approaches from the west. This will keep winds light over the area and this will extend into Sunday as the front will stall as it approaches the coast.
The sat pic for today and 500MB Analysis offer a great visual presentation of why things will be fairly quiet on the inland waters. The jet stream remains very far to the south coming ashore at the CA-MEX border. Over the weekend the jet stream will drift to the north coming ashore between northern California and central Oregon. Until it moves north of us, temps will remain a little cool which is all good for the snowpack and the fire season.
Have a great weekend!
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Love your pre-race write-ups Bruce they are awesome.
Hey, um… Smith Island is coming up this weekend, what is the prognosis for Saturday. (I’m doing the short course BTW, to Double Bluff and back).
Greg
Skipper – (The Legendary) Boomerang – Cal40
Kurt the editor here. I’m sure the “legendary” Bruce Hedrick will be coming up with an outlook, though he’ll be doing it from a veranda in Mexico, with a mouse in one hand and a margarita in the other. I’ll prod him with your request.
And here’s the pre-race rundown. Boomerang’s ETA called out. Beat it and prove Bruce wrong.
http://sailish.com/index.php/2022/04/29/bruces-briefs-wx-for-apr-29-30-may1-3-smith-island-and-double-bluff-race/
Thank you, we had a great day and the Legendary Boomerang finished at 5:30. The wind didn’t die until the late afternoon and we were well on our way home. Great day out on the sound.
Great – If you have any photos I’d love to post them. I’ll forward your message to Bruce’s Mexican veranda.