Plenty of sailboat racing going on this weekend and, with the exception of the South Sound, who got their turn last weekend, there will be breeze. In some places, there will be a lot of wind on Saturday, especially for our friends in Port Townsend and Victoria. In Port Townsend, they’re having the Shipwrights’ Regatta which could be renamed the Shipwrights’ Benefit Regatta as there could be plenty of work for them after Saturday.
Victoria could see 25-35 knots of SE breeze with higher gusts on Saturday in advance of a frontal system. By about mid-day Sunday a post-frontal vacuum will develop over the Eastern end of the Strait of JdF in sharp contrast to the conditions on Saturday.
Today’s Surface Analysis Chart and Sat Pic show a weakening high-pressure system inland, with a series of moderate low-pressure systems poised to come into our area. The other feature of note is the 500MB Analysis which shows a shift in the path of the jet stream which will bring an end to our run of very chilly weather. Currently, the jet stream is going up and over the remains of our offshore high-pressure system and then coming ashore in Central California, allowing the cold air from BC to come into our area. As this hump in the jet stream moves east, the flow in the jet stream will remain zonal across the Pacific between 30°and 40°N, however, when the flow turns to the NE it will bring the more moderate temperatures back to our area. Finally!
The Surface Forecast Chart for Saturday shows the next frontal system approaching the coast. As usually happens this time of the year, the front will slow as it approaches the coastal buffer zone. This will keep breezy conditions in place all along the coast for the weekend. The pre-frontal breeze will be strongest in the North Sound (20-25knts), Admiralty Inlet (25-30 knts), Eastern Strait of JdF, San Juan Islands, and Bellingham Bay (25-35 knts w/ higher gusts). The breeze will moderate about mid-day in the Central Sound and this moderation will move slowly north over the day. With frontal passage on Saturday night and into Sunday morning, the wind will become SW on the coast and SW in all of the Sound, Admiralty Inlet, Eastern Strait, and San Juan Islands. By noon, the gradient will begin to ease with the breeze dropping in the Eastern Strait but continuing at 15-20 knots out of the SSW in the Sound and Admiralty Inlet.
By early evening on Sunday, conditions will return to pre-frontal in advance of the next system coming ashore on Monday, with more moderate temperatures.
So plenty of fun to be had on the water this weekend, just be well aware of the conditions and make sure boat and crew are properly prepared.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)