Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 18, 19, 20, and 21 Feb. Should be a GREAT Toliva Shoal Race!

This could be one of the nicest Toliva Shoal Races in a long time with the weather, tidal currents, the sun, the moon, and the stars all in alignment. Plus whatever precipitation happens will be light and will only show up mid to late afternoon on Saturday. It will still be a bit on the coolish side but not below freezing but with wind chill, it will be close to it. Have plenty of warm fluids available especially for the folks hiking on what will be a long beat from Toliva back to the finish. My favorite is Chinese Hot and Sour Soup, recipe available on request.

Today’s surface analysis shows a now-familiar pattern of a stronger than normal high-pressure system offshore (1036MB) and a weak trough of low-pressure inland. A cold front will move down from the NW late Saturday and into Sunday however it will be a quick hitter bringing snow to the Cascades and Olympics and some lowland precipitation.

By early Saturday as the front begins its approach, the offshore high will begin to become stronger (1038MB) and rounder indicating more stability. This is what will allow a relatively strong flow of onshore breeze to continue over the area into the coming week.

For the Toliva Shoal Race, this will mean a fairly steady (for the South Sound!) SW breeze of 10 to 20-knots with the usual light spots in the usual places. Tacticians will love this race and the foredeck crews will be busy trying to anticipate the next gybe and/or the next sail change. At this point in the series, you know who the smart teams are and you’ll want to watch them for this race. 

Tides are always interesting in the South Sound especially as you approach the Narrows. This year they will be pretty much with you around the course, AMAZING!

Budd Inlet Entrance

0906     Slack

1042     Max Ebb           .19 knts

1300     Slack

1542     Max Fld            .34 knts

1718     Max Fld            .30 knts*

2012     Slack

* Not an error

Narrows (south end)

1030     Max Ebb           3.13 knts

1342     Slack

1618     Max Fld            3.24 knts

1918     Slack

Have a great race, be safe, and enjoy the weekend.

2 thoughts on “Bruce’s Briefs: Wx for 18, 19, 20, and 21 Feb. Should be a GREAT Toliva Shoal Race!

  • February 19, 2022 at 6:20 pm
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    Bruce — you nailed it again, right down to the late afternoon rain. Last boat finished at 1645. Bill Sheldon, Toliva Shoal Race Officer

    Reply
    • February 20, 2022 at 11:37 am
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      Thanks Bill – I’ll answer on behalf of Bruce, who we’re all lucky have (who henceforth perhaps we should call The Sage). “THANKS!” I hope it was a great race. Also, Bill, if you send me a list of results and/or pix I’ll post.

      Reply

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