This could be one of the nicest Toliva Shoal Races in a long time with the weather, tidal currents, the sun, the moon, and the stars all in alignment. Plus whatever precipitation happens will be light and will only show up mid to late afternoon on Saturday. It will still be a bit on the coolish side but not below freezing but with wind chill, it will be close to it. Have plenty of warm fluids available especially for the folks hiking on what will be a long beat from Toliva back to the finish. My favorite is Chinese Hot and Sour Soup, recipe available on request.
Today’s surface analysis shows a now-familiar pattern of a stronger than normal high-pressure system offshore (1036MB) and a weak trough of low-pressure inland. A cold front will move down from the NW late Saturday and into Sunday however it will be a quick hitter bringing snow to the Cascades and Olympics and some lowland precipitation.
By early Saturday as the front begins its approach, the offshore high will begin to become stronger (1038MB) and rounder indicating more stability. This is what will allow a relatively strong flow of onshore breeze to continue over the area into the coming week.
For the Toliva Shoal Race, this will mean a fairly steady (for the South Sound!) SW breeze of 10 to 20-knots with the usual light spots in the usual places. Tacticians will love this race and the foredeck crews will be busy trying to anticipate the next gybe and/or the next sail change. At this point in the series, you know who the smart teams are and you’ll want to watch them for this race.
Tides are always interesting in the South Sound especially as you approach the Narrows. This year they will be pretty much with you around the course, AMAZING!
Budd Inlet Entrance
0906 Slack
1042 Max Ebb .19 knts
1300 Slack
1542 Max Fld .34 knts
1718 Max Fld .30 knts*
2012 Slack
* Not an error
Narrows (south end)
1030 Max Ebb 3.13 knts
1342 Slack
1618 Max Fld 3.24 knts
1918 Slack
Have a great race, be safe, and enjoy the weekend.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)
Bruce — you nailed it again, right down to the late afternoon rain. Last boat finished at 1645. Bill Sheldon, Toliva Shoal Race Officer
Thanks Bill – I’ll answer on behalf of Bruce, who we’re all lucky have (who henceforth perhaps we should call The Sage). “THANKS!” I hope it was a great race. Also, Bill, if you send me a list of results and/or pix I’ll post.