Once again, the Pacific NW will be the envy of the country when it comes to weather, not traffic, but definitely weather. We will have an outstanding day tomorrow with temps approaching 60° F and sunshine. Slightly warmer on Sunday but with some cloudiness as the next cold front approaches our area for Monday.
Today would be the perfect day to do the delivery to Olympia for the Toliva Shoal Race with 15-25 knots of N to NE breeze all the way down the Sound. This follows the typical NW pattern of the best day for breeze is the first day the ridge establishes itself over the area with the breeze easing each day following.
The surface analysis chart for today shows an irregularly shaped 1037MB high-pressure system extending from the Salish Sea into southeast BC. There is a nice compression of the isobars just to the north of us which is what is bringing us the strong N-NE breeze today. The chart for tomorrow shows the easing of the isobars which will bring lighter air however it really won’t go dead until late tomorrow night. This will mean ideal conditions of 5-12 knots of northerly for the winter Shaw Island Race, and the races in the central and south Sound.
The most interesting chart for the weekend is the 48hr surface forecast chart which shows the deepest low we have had so far in the North Pacific, at 948MB and surrounded by hurricane force winds. It also shows the weak low-pressure system (1009MB) with attached frontal systems weakening as it approaches our coast and runs into our protective ridge of high pressure. This chart also shows how the pressure gradient is weakening over the area. The feature of interest on this chart is how a high-pressure system (1026-1029MB) is setting up off the central coast of California. This will be a continuation of the pattern we have seen since the start of the year.
This pattern is reinforced by the jet stream maintaining its zonal flow over the western Pacific before it becomes meridional as it approaches our coast. This flow will become more interesting as the surface high-pressure off of California strengthens and becomes rounder in shape. Currently the jet stream is going over the top of the highs over our area and then sending those Alberta Clippers into the central US. By the middle of this coming week the jet stream will be going over the top of this building offshore high and then down into the Pacific NW. This will bring cooler temps into the area but probably not much moisture.
It will be a great mid-February weekend for our area so enjoy the Big Seattle Boat Show which closes tomorrow evening and then spend Sunday on the water.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)