Looks like our high-pressure system is going to keep us dry for the upcoming weekend and well into next week. We are still about 3” of rain above average for this date however we are about 1” behind where we were a year ago.
Lots more activity on the water this weekend and Saturday should be a great day for sailing just about everywhere. There may be some patchy fog in the morning however it won’t last long and with that 1037 MB high-pressure system setting up off the mouth of the Columbia River, low-pressure systems and attached frontal systems will have a very difficult time making it into the Pacific NW.
January 21 500MB 
January 21 Surface Analysis 
January 22 Surface Forecast 
January 23 500MB 
January 23 Surface Forecast 
January 25 500 MB 
January 25 Surface Forecast
The best day for sailing will be Saturday even though the models are not in agreement about just how much wind we may have. The most optimistic has 10-12 knots of northerly coming down the Sound from Port Townsend to Tacoma. This will be the result of an elongated high-pressure system with centers starting just north of the north end of Vancouver Island and extending to the SE near north Utah. The problem is that the high at the Utah end of things is at 1042MB so it will tend to decrease wind in the Pac NW. Another model has light and variable wind over the area for the entire day. If the optimistic model prevails, remember that this will tend to be more of a drainage northerly not a more typical northwesterly. This will mean more shifts to the NE especially in the morning in the Central Sound.
On Sunday, as a trough of low pressure sets up along the coast from Neah Bay to the Calif-Mex Border, what pressure gradient there was will ease over the day, keeping winds on the light and variable side until a weak northerly fills down the Sound mid to late afternoon.
The 500Mb charts continue to show a zonal flow over the western Pacific that becomes meridional as it flows to the north to get around the upper-level high-pressure system that is an extension of the surface high discussed above. This scenario will keep the weather mild over our area and make life interesting but very cold for the Midwest and East Coast. These charts also show a persistent upper-level low just east of Hawaii. This will be interesting to watch as it drifts slowly to the west, splits, and becomes weaker.
Today’s sat pic continues to show that nicely defined upper-level low between California and Hawaii as well as the start of some clearing over our area.
I had some great questions after the Tsunami Warning last weekend and I’ll have a write-up for you this weekend along with some great graphs showing its arrival on the West Coast.
Have a great weekend.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)