Our winter of wild weather continues and we are not even getting close to the worst of what is happening in the central and eastern US. Not surprisingly, we are ahead for rainfall on this date after a record-setting fall by .75” compared to the average however we are 2.1” behind compared to where we were a year ago. Then there’s the snowfall in the Olympics and Cascades which is way ahead however there is still a lot of winter left and in a La Niña year, we should expect more. The only problem is that we could, like last year, have another week of very warm weather which could quickly take the snowpack down. We will see.
January 7 Surface Analysis 
January 8 Surface Forecast 
January 9 500MB 
January 9 Surface Forecast 
January 11 500MB 
January 11 Surface Forecast
The good news is that while we are having some wild wind in the Straits and Admiralty Inlet today, gale warnings, the conditions for tomorrow’s Duwamish Head Race look almost pleasant. Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic show the strong frontal system pushing through the area today and the post-frontal clearing which is bringing those gale-force westerlies down the Straits. This gradient will ease late this afternoon and into the early evening. Another weak cold front will push through the area tomorrow bringing south to southwesterly breeze, 8-12 knots, to the central Sound for most of the day. The front will also bring SE breeze of 15-20 knots to the north part of Admiralty and the Eastern end of the Strait of JdF.
Breeze on at Diamond Point 
January 7 Sat Pic
The keys for tomorrow’s race will be a clear air downwind start, finding and staying in the breeze while sailing the shortest course up to Alki, staying in the breeze on the reach from Alki to Duwamish, then have the boat set up for the reach from Duwamish to Blakely Rock (barber haulers already rigged), sprit boats with code 0’s will love this leg. Remember the rocks on the north side of Blakely Rock and then stay in the breeze until you can harden up on port tack and then tack to starboard for a long tack back to the finish. The breeze will tend to be from the SSW so starboard will be favored just don’t get too close to the east side of the Sound as the breeze will tend to be lighter. Also, watch the boats astern of you and if you get headed and the boats outside stay lifted, tack immediately and get back out to the SW breeze.
As you get closer to Three Tree Point and after mid-afternoon, the breeze will ease to less than 8-knots and continue to ease as well as back to the south. Finishing before dark would be good. It is still going to be cold out there so dress appropriately and have plenty of warming fluids available to your crew.
Be safe and have fun.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)