The wild weather just keeps getting wilder with no end in the immediate crystal ball. At least in the Pacific NW, we’ve only had some breeze, not out of the ordinary, and the wettest fall on record. Year to date we are at over 6” ahead for the year but just about an inch behind for December. Don’t worry there’s more coming this weekend and the folks in California will be getting more rain and more snow in the Sierra Nevada’s. We won’t even begin to talk about what’s happening in the rest of the country. Oh, and let’s not forget the powerful late-season Typhoon Rai slamming into the Philippines.
December 17 500 MB 
December 17 Surface Analysis 
December 18 Surface Forecast 
December 19 500 MB 
December 19 Surface Forecast 
December 20 Surface Forecast 
December 21 500 MB 
December 21 Surface Forecast
Today’s surface analysis chart shows a series of low-pressure systems converging on the West Coast with a very strong high-pressure system (1045MB by the 19th) in the mid-Pacific. All of the low-pressure systems have various frontal systems attached to them extending from the Gulf of Alaska to Hawaii. These are reinforced by a strong meridional flow in the jet stream, see the 500MB chart for the 19th of Dec. This will continue to bring moisture-laden air ashore all along the West Coast.
The next active frontal system will move ashore tonight and through the area on Saturday bringing a strong SE breeze to the coast, the east end of the Strait of JdF, the San Juan Islands, and Bellingham Bay. The Doppler Radar today clearly shows the rain shield approaching the Coast. The coast could see a breeze to 35-40 knots while the other areas named above could see 40-50 knots of SEasterly. The good news is that because of the jet stream these are fast-moving systems with the post-frontal SW showing up at around 0600 hrs Saturday morning on the coast. This breeze will work its way down the Straits by mid-morning Saturday with gale-force westerlies in the Straits to the east of Race Rocks, and 20-25-knot south-westerlies in the Islands and Bellingham Bay. These will hold until early evening Saturday after which the gradient will ease over the Salish Sea.
By Sunday morning flow over the Islands, Bellingham Bay and the north end of Admiralty Inlet will be east to northeasterly as a strong Fraser outflow develops. By mid-morning Sunday winds could reach 25-35 knots in the northern part of the San Juans and Bellingham Bay. Sunday afternoon this flow will extend across the Straits and down the Sound with northerlies of 15-25 knots. This will last into Monday morning before that gradient will begin to ease.
So while you may have the boat set up for strong southerlies, Saturday might be a good day to check those lines and set some up in anticipation of northerlies.
Then finally on Tuesday, we can celebrate the Winter Solstice after which the days will slowly become longer and winter will have officially begun. The Solstice officially happens at 0759 hrs PST on Tuesday morning. We will be celebrating later in the afternoon.
Have a great weekend.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)