There are some signs that boating may be returning to normal with 114 entries for this weekend’s Round-The County Race. I think that this would make the RTC the most popular race this year. Well done OIYC, but then again they always do a great job with this event.
Then there’s the weather and the tides as there always is up in the Islands. Weather has been a big topic this week with big breeze, big rain, lots of snow in the passes, and even a tornado warning for the Kitsap Peninsula. Now as you can see from the Doppler Radar, today’s sat pic and surface weather analysis, it’s all changing. The big breeze is easing until at least Saturday afternoon and into Sunday morning when another frontal system will roll over the area. There is clearing to the west and the Doppler is just showing scattered rain showers. So unless you live on a steep slope, it’s all good!
November 12 500MB 
November 12 Surface Analysis 
November 13 Surface Forecast 
November 14 500MB 
November 14 Surface Forecast 
November 15 Surface Forecast 
November 16 500MB 
November 16 Surface Forecast
Tides are always interesting for the Race and with light air forecast for tomorrow luckily they won’t be much of an issue. The real problem will be Sunday in Rosario Strait with slack at 1500 and the ebb starting, coinciding with the breeze easing off.
Tidal Currents
Lawrence Point Orcas Island Saturday 13 Nov
0612 Slack
1006 Max Flood 2.3 knts
1518 Slack
1824 Max Ebb .97 knts
Turn Point Boundary Pass Sunday 14 Nov
0724 Slack
1130 Max Flood 2.3 knts
1454 Slack
Rosario Strait Sunday 14 Nov
0824 Slack
1130 Max Flood 1.75 knts
1506 Slack
1854 Max Ebb 2.33 knts
The big picture for the weather shows the front moving through today with that persistent but weak high-pressure system off the coast of California, with a lobe extending up into eastern Washington. This high will become more dominant tomorrow with the pressure gradient easing over the racecourse through the day.
Saturday Summary
0900 Start to Lawrence Point S-SE 8-10 knot
1200 Lawrence Pt to Patos S-SE 5-8 knots
1400 Patos to Turn Point SE 5-8 knots with 6-12 knots near Turn Point
1600 Turn Point to Finish SE 8-15 knots
1800 Turn Point to Finish SE 15-25 knots
Overnight in Roche Harbor, it will be breezy and will hold into the Sunday morning start.
Sunday Summary
0900 Start to False Bay S 25-30 knots
1100 Flase Bay to Davidson Rk S 20-30 knots
1300 Iceberg Pt to Davidson S 10 knots at Iceberg becoming 10-20 near Davidson
1500 Iceberg to Davidson S 5-10 knots becoming 5 at Davidson, 10-12 at Lydia Shoal
1700 Iceberg to Lydia S 0-5 knots.
By Sunday morning the front will be moving rapidly off to the NE and dragging the breeze with it. The models are not in agreement about how fast this will happen. The zonal flow of the jet stream will keep this pattern coming well into next week.
For Saturday I have Zvi around the course and finishing at around 1500 hrs, the J-111 Raku finishing at 1609, The Beneteau 36.7 finishing at 1703, the J-35 at 1709, the J-105’s in at 1713, and the J-30’s in around 1752hrs.
For those boats thinking about heading South immediately after the race you’ll be able to get across the Straits in very mild conditions however once you enter Admiralty, the breeze will pick up and you’ll be powering into 20-25 knots from the due south.
Have a great race, prepare accordingly, and be safe. Keep your AIS on so I can at least enjoy the race from the Sailish.com Weather Center.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)