True, the first big storm of the fall was a little early this year but not out of the ordinary, just remember the Oct 12th Storm a few decades back. Plus, just like that, we are suddenly ahead on rain for the year, having gone from .75” behind last weekend, we are now almost 1.0” ahead as of today and we still need more. Especially in Eastern Washington. All in all, it is acting very much like another La Niña winter.
October 29 500MB 
October 29 Surface Analysis 
October 30 Surface Forecast 
October 31 500MB 
October 31 Surface Forecast 
November 2 500MB 
November 1 Surface Forecast 
November 2 Surface Forecast
The really good news is that it is going to be a very nice weekend in the Pacific NW with high pressure building over the area as the front is sliding off to the south. Today’s surface analysis chart and sat pic confirm that clear skies are coming. Following the typical pattern for the Pac NW, the best day for wind will be the first day that high rebuilds over the area and that will be late today and through Saturday. The interesting part is that it’s not because the high is building offshore as we might find in the spring and summer. Instead, we will have a building high-pressure system inland over lower BC. This will have the effect of bringing the breeze in from the N-NE and bringing the temps down, not to freezing but definitely cooler. This building high (1036MB) will also act as a block for the next series of storms coming across the North Pacific.
As you can see from today’s surface chart there is a fairly impressive low aimed right at us and strengthening from 975MB to 968MB. Then on the 30 Oct Chart as it it hits the high it takes a big lefty toward Kodiak. The Oct 31 surface chart shows another developing low-pressure system off of Oregon with yet another strong low-pressure system (982MB) in mid-Pacific tracking towards the West Coast. The other interesting feature to track is the jet stream with primarily zonal flow today becoming meridional by Sunday and then returning to zonal by the 2nd of November. The upper-level forecast chart for the 2nd of November also shows a flow that begins to look like yet another Pineapple Express if there’s any moisture associated with that low and its attached frontal system.
Plenty of racing in the Central Sound this weekend and Saturday will be the day with plenty of breeze, like 15-22 knots out of the N-NE. As always, tidal currents will make life interesting, especially in the afternoon.
Tidal Current at West Point.
30 Oct
0906 Max Flood .83knots
1300 Slack
1436 Max Ebb .34 knots
1806 Slack
31 Oct
1006 Max Flood .75 knots
1342 Slack
1518 Max Ebb .35 knots
1842 Slack
Since the flood tide will be with the wind, expect the flood to last a bit longer and the ebb to start a bit later. Your best indicator of the change will be that the sea state will change from relatively smooth to shorter and choppier conditions.
Sunday the breeze will remain from the N-NE however it will be in the 5-12 knot range and should hold through the day. While the temps may be cool at least there will be no rain.
Enjoy the weekend.
Ed. Note: Good luck to all you race-your-housers. Looks like some good breeze for it! -KH
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)