Ed. Note: Bruce is back! For a minute I thought I’d have to explain the weather out there. I can tell you it was BLOWING in Anacortes today. KH
I was afraid I have to You would guess from the forecasts that all hell is about to happen around here. The charts, however, tell a different story. The strongest wind is probably happening right now with the strongest winds along the north coast and from Pt Townsend to Bellingham. By 2300 it will all be over except for some southerlies tonight and into tomorrow of 15-25 knots in the central Sound. By Sunday the gradient will ease and lighter conditions will prevail except in the Straits of JdF where a post-frontal onshore flow will develop late Sunday afternoon bringing westerlies of 20-25 knots to the central and eastern Straits.
We still need the rain and judging by the satellite pics we probably won’t get much of that either. We are still about 2.5” behind for the year and about .5” behind for the month. The Cascades will get some rain and even some snow above 6,000 ft. For the lowlands expect less than .5 inches for the weekend.
September 17 500 MB 
September 17 Surface Analysis 
September 18 Surface Forecast 
September 19 500 MB 
September 19 Surface Forecast 
September 20 Surface Forecast 
September 21 500 MB 
September 21 Surface Forecast
As you can see from the forecast and 500MB Charts a more typical fall pattern is beginning to develop. The problem as far as rain and wind go is that the lows are still weakening significantly as they come across the Pacific and especially when they hit our coastal buffer zone. The 500MB charts show a predominately zonal flow which will persist into the coming week and bring another weak frontal system into the area Wednesday. The charts still show them moving to the east fairly quickly.
As far as our long-range forecast goes, it now appears we may have another La Niña event developing in late fall and persisting into the spring of 2022. This will bring another wet and cool winter into the Pacific NW so great news for the skiers and then we’ll just have to see how soon our first extreme heat event occurs next summer and what effect that will have on what should be a substantial snowpack.
Just got back from a great delivery up to Ketchikan and while it may sound crazy to do this in the fall, the forecasts were good and we avoided all the heavy weather. You still have to be careful but it can be done safely. We had no problems getting into Canada and the fuel docks were happy to have American visitors. One gentleman in Port McNeill (a great place) asked that we please send more folks up their way. Checked in with US Customs by phone coming into Ketchikan and again, it was easy.
Enjoy the weekend and it may be the perfect time to check those mooring lines and fenders as well as get those roller furling sails down and into your sailmaker for a check-over.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)