Considering what a weird year for weather it has been it probably shouldn’t surprise anyone that it looks like a fairly nice weekend for sailing. The very strange part is that there will be more wind in the South Sound than in the Central and North Sound. Plus, for once even though we are setting up for an onshore flow, after today the Straits won’t be howling.
Today’s surface analysis chart combined with today’s satellite pic show a weak trough of low-pressure over the Sound with a weak high offshore. This pattern will persist over the weekend bringing a predominately southerly flow along the coast and into the Sound for tomorrow. The high will gradually build over the area bringing light air for Mothers Day. Since it is a weak onshore flow there will be some breeze coming through the Chehalis Gap with a stronger push later in the day as the offshore flow shifts from southerly to westerly. If you like sailing in 5-11-knots of S-SW breeze, you will like tomorrow.
May 7 500 MB 
May 7n Surface Analysis 
May 8 Surface Forecast 
May 9 500 MB 
May 9 Surface Forecast 
May 10 Surface Forecast 
May 11 500 MB 
May 11 Surface Forecast
The problem will be that dash between the 5 and 11. The breeze will be spotty in places and shifty along the west side of the Sound. From Shilshole to Pt. Robinson you’ll want to sail fairly close to the rhumbline and avoid the obvious holes. After Robinson, look for long starboard tacks and short port tacks so you don’t get too close to the beach where while there may be big starboard tack lifts in close, the breeze will be lighter.
The bottom end of Vashon will be its usual challenge with light air in close and better current well off the beach. Just find the happy medium, usually easier said than done.
Going north in Colvos will be sailing your gybe angles and trying to find the strongest current. As you get to the north end of Colvos the ebb will be slightly stronger along the Blake Island side just don’t get in too close. From Blake to the finish will be staying in the breeze and not sailing too far off of rhumb.
Not a lot of definitive information here but it will be one of those days where keeping your head out of the boat, watching the puffs, and the competition will keep tacticians very busy.
The models are fairly consistent with the RP-55 and the TP-52’s finishing the long course by about 1630 hrs. The J-125 in at1930 hrs, the B-40.7 in at 2115, and the J-109 in at 2140hrs.
The J-105s on the short course should be home by about 1830 hours.
Enjoy the weekend and leave your AIS on so I can track you.
Bruce has raced and cruised the Pacific Northwest his entire life. He earned a Bachelor’s of Science from the University of Washington in Biological Oceanography and learned meteorology “to keep from getting kicked around on the race course.” Bruce spent nearly two decades as Associate Publisher for Northwest Yachting Magazine, retiring in mid-2015, and was the chairman of the board of trustees for the Northwest Marine Trade Association in 2014. (photo of Bruce driving Playstation is a bit dated, but cool)